Sporting News suggests Colin Kaepernick should try CFL: probably a bad idea

It's apparently "Let's suggest NFL quarterbacks are coming to the CFL" season, as ESPN's Kevin Seifert's suggestion of Johnny Manziel to the league has now been followed by Vinnie Iyer of The Sporting News suggesting the CFL might be a destination for Colin Kaepernick. In the wake of Kaepernick's ongoing anthem controversy, his future does seem relatively up in the air, but it appears highly unlikely he'd want to come north of the border. It also seems unlikely he'd be a CFL success story if he did. This looks like yet another case of "NFL writer suggests embattled QB will come to Canada," and one that's likely to end the same way as most of those; a tale full of sound and fury, signifiying nothing.

First, let's explore why Kaepernick to the CFL seems improbable. One big factor is money. Kaepernick is currently on a six-year $114 million (U.S.) contract (with $61 million guaranteed), and he's set to make $11.9 million this year. Now, he'll still get that even if he's cut, and his contract's offset language means whatever another team pays him this year is deducted from what the 49ers would owe him, so Kaepernick could presumably make as much in the CFL as he could in the NFL in 2016 (despite the CFL's highest salaries being in the $600,000 Canadian (about $456,000 U.S.) range, and it being highly unlikely Kaepernick would even get half of that as an unproven NFL QB, it doesn't matter if the 49ers are paying the bill). After 2016, though, his earning potential in the CFL would fall off a cliff compared to what it would be in the NFL. Beyond earning potential, too, there's the question of if Kaepernick would want to keep playing a physical, dangerous game in a far-off land for next to no fame and money when he's already landed a contract with $61 million guaranteed. If he did want to keep earning money, it would seem likely he could make much more as a speaker or TV pundit with much less risk.

Even if we presume Kaepernick does want to keep playing football (not a foregone conclusion), there are strong reasons to believe he can stay in the NFL somewhere. First, NFL teams tend to carry at least three quarterbacks, with some stashing more on their practice squad. There are also plenty of quarterback injuries, opening up spots for other guys. Kaepernick has had some struggles, yes (which we'll get to in more detail later), but he's also a guy who took the 49ers to a Super Bowl appearance just four years ago (2012-13) and threw for over 3,000 yards in both 2013-14 and 2014-15. This isn't Manziel, who never really established himself as a NFL starter and also had a litany of off-field incidents with alcohol and accusations of domestic violence. Kaepernick has produced more on the field and done less problematic things off the field, and while some coaches may not like the anthem controversy he stirred up, that doesn't seem likely to get him kicked out of the league. If Kaepernick can stay in the NFL, even as a backup or a practice-roster player, that seems like a far superior route to becoming a NFL starter again than trying to learn a new game in Canada, well off the NFL radar.

The reality is that going to the CFL to try to get to the NFL is generally not a productive path for quarterbacks. Yes, people can cite Warren Moon, Doug Flutie and Jeff Garcia as success stories, but the latest one there (Garcia) came to the NFL in 1999. Since then, there have been a few attempts, including brief ones from Henry Burris, Ricky Ray and Anthony Calvillo, but none were able to find much success south of the border. They also had the advantages of being proven CFL stars who were trying to parlay that into NFL careers. The road for Kaepernick, or any other NFL QB trying to get back to that league, would be much tougher, as he'd first have to establish himself as even a CFL starter.

This is where many of these "NFL QB to the CFL" arguments fall completely flat; they don't consider that CFL teams aren't going to instantly start some quarterback who walks in from the NFL, and often dismiss that notion as "provincialism," as Seifert did. The theory appears to be that because the NFL has first choice of players coming out of college, anyone who found any level of NCAA or NFL success can succeed in the CFL. At quarterback, this isn't true; many of the league's best quarterbacks have come from smaller schools and less-prominent backgrounds (for example, Bo Levi Mitchell played at Division I-FCS Eastern Washington, while Trevor Harris played at Division II Edinboro University in Pennsylvania), and many big-name quarterbacks have been major CFL busts (including Chris Leak, Colt Brennan and Troy Smith).

Moreover, the CFL game is so different for quarterbacks (with 12 guys a side, expanded motion, three downs, a bigger field and more) that it usually takes years to adjust. That's why most teams aren't going to just throw in a guy with no Canadian football experience regardless of his pedigree. Simply put, even if he headed north tomorrow, Kaepernick (or almost any other NFL quarterback, outside maybe a few of the biggest stars) is not going to be better than any current CFL starter in 2016. That's based just on how hard it is to succeed in the CFL without experience, not anything to do with Kaepernick in particular. There's the chance a team whose season already appears lost, like Saskatchewan, might throw in a guy like Kaepernick in hopes he could learn enough to help next year, but if he makes it clear if he views the league as a quick turnaround, why would you invest in developing him? And those are all general issues that would apply to any NFL-turned-CFL QB. Things get worse when you consider Kaepernick's specific circumstances.

The biggest issue with Kaepernick in the NFL has been his accuracy. He has a career completion percentage of 59.9 per cent, which is bad by that league's standards (the league average was 63.0 per cent in 2015) and even worse by CFL standards. His college numbers are even worse; he posted just a 58.2 mark at Nevada (albeit with a 64.9 in his senior year). The CFL had a league average completion mark of 66.0 per cent last year and 68.1 per cent through nine weeks this year. A high completion percentage is absolutely vital in a three-down league, and just about any quarterback who's done well in the CFL demonstrated success in that stat both in college and in the pros. Moreover, a poor completion percentage has been the CFL downfall of many of those big-name quarterbacks, such as Smith. Kaepernick has an impressive arm and good scrambling ability, but his accuracy doesn't speak well for him as a CFL quarterback. His specific case carries many of the same problems as Tim Tebow's; Kaepernick has found more NFL success and shown more accuracy and potential, but he's still not an overly-accurate quarterback, and heading to a league that demands accuracy doesn't make much sense for him.

The problem with these "quarterback to the CFL!" articles is that they're taking a few strands of facts and constructing a whole sweater out of them. Yes, some quarterbacks have used the CFL as a springboard to the NFL, but only a very few have pulled that off, and we haven't seen it really work since Garcia back in 1999. Yes, some players can go from CFL stars to NFL stars, such as Cameron Wake, Andrew Hawkins, Jerrell Freeman, Delvin Breaux and more, but they're not quarterbacks; adapting to the CFL is much less difficult at any other position, and it's much easier to get playing time as a rookie at any other position. Yes, the CFL is the highest level of football outside the NFL, but that doesn't necessarily make it an attractive option for many who might still have a NFL shot, especially when you consider how low the salaries are. Yes, CFL teams might take a look at prominent QBs like Kaepernick, but that doesn't mean they'd actually be able to bring them in or would actually start them if they did. These are all reasons all these articles from American media outlets about Tebow to the CFL never led to anything, and they're reasons why it's unlikely we'll ever see the likes of Manziel or Kaepernick north of the border either.