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Johnny Manziel to the CFL seems unlikely, despite ESPN's report

Johnny Manziel to the CFL seems unlikely, despite ESPN's report

"American media outlet claims former Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback could land in the CFL" is a fun story from 2012 (and 2013, and 2013 again, and 2014, and 2015), and it's back again, but this time with Johnny Manziel playing the role of Tim Tebow (who's now off trying to make it in professional baseball). There's been a little Manziel-to-the-CFL talk before, with Gregg Doyel (then of CBS, now of The Indianapolis Star) floating the idea in 2013 when Manziel got in some NCAA trouble, and a bit more has cropped up this year thanks to Manziel's March release by the Cleveland Browns and the reports that the Hamilton Tiger-Cats have him on their negotiation list, but it only became a big national story Thursday thanks to ESPN's Kevin Seifert and comments CFL commissioner Jeffrey Orridge made to him (which actually aren't even all that strong on Manziel).

Update: Orridge took to Twitter Thursday to dispute how his comments were characterized:

Here's the key part of Seifert's "How the CFL could claim Johnny Manziel" piece, and the comments Orridge made in it:

It's so easy to see from here: The most creative quarterback in the recent history of college football, let loose on a bigger field. He's buying time for receivers to get open, toying with defenders trying to sack him, taking off downfield when needed and recovering his reputation as an elite-level playmaker.

On the surface, it makes all kinds of sense to envision Johnny Manziel beginning a comeback north of the border in the CFL -- if he pulls himself from the depths of his personal spiral. His NFL opportunities for 2016 have dwindled, given his public behavior and reported physical condition, and he might need a more recent template of success to earn his next chance.

As a result, CFL officials are casting a wary but intrigued eye, knowing Manziel's celebrity would inject energy and help flex the international marketing strategy of commissioner Jeffrey Orridge. Manziel is reported to be on the negotiating list of the Hamilton Tiger-Cats, giving them the first opportunity to sign him should he express interest. He conceivably could work toward landing there either late this season or in 2017.

CFL rules prevent team officials from discussing unsigned players publicly, but sitting in his office last week, Orridge smiled and said: "The CFL provides opportunities for players that for a myriad of reasons are not playing in the NFL, and that's always been another opportunity for them, if you think back throughout our history."

To be fair, Seifert does also include some quotes from CFL observers and analysts on the issues with this idea, but he downplays them with "a bit of provincialism." Right, because it's blasphemy to think that a Heisman Trophy winner might not instantly dominate the CFL? How'd that whole Troy Smith experiment go? In fact, it's worth noting that many of the CFL's most successful quarterbacks played at smaller schools, and many of its biggest busts at the position came in with high profiles. Another one is Akili Smith, once the third overall pick in the NFL draft, who couldn't last more than a few months with the Calgary Stampeders in 2007.

CFL quarterbacking success has very little to do with having been a high-profile NCAA or NFL quarterback (really, the data suggests you're probably better off coming in without a high profile), and while elements of Manziel's game might work well in Canadian football, it's also worth noting he posted just a 57.8 per cent completion mark in the NFL. Accuracy and completion percentage might be the most important part of quarterback play in the three-down game, and Manziel hasn't had that since college. Maybe he somehow miraculously rediscovers that in Canada while instantly learning the drastic differences in a 12-a-side game played on a bigger field, but the odds don't seem in favour of it. Yes, Manziel has some rushing skills, and that can sometimes work in this league (Damon Allen and Mike Reilly are examples), but that doesn't overcome his accuracy issues. He may seem like a better CFL fit than the likes of Tebow, but that's still not saying much.

Perhaps the biggest problem here is the incentive for Manziel and the timeframe that would be involved, and it's why it seems unlikely we'll see him coming north. Presuming Manziel's goal is to get back to the NFL and its grand payday, probably the most important ingredient in accomplishing that is through playing time and game film. There's no CFL team that's likely to give him playing time any time soon.

Consider Hamilton, for example; they have one of the league's best quarterbacks in Zach Collaros (who Seifert dismisses with "Comparing Collaros, who played at Cincinnati from 2008-11, to the 2012 Heisman Trophy winner might not make sense in America"), and they also have a raft of other intriguing backups, including Jeremiah Masoli, Jeff Mathews and Everett Golson. Yes, none of those guys hit the heights of Manziel in the NCAA, but at the moment, their CFL experience makes them a much more valuable commodity than Manziel. If Hamilton somehow signed Manziel today, it would likely be between him and Golson for the fourth quarterback slot. He's certainly not replacing Collaros as starter, and he'd have to show a heck of a lot in practice to move past either Mathews or Masoli. None of that adds up to playing time.

While the QB depth chart is a little weaker at other spots in the CFL, other teams could only land Manziel's rights via a trade, and there doesn't seem to be a situation anywhere where he could get much playing time this year. Of course, it's possible he could sign in the offseason, but he'd probably be battling for a backup spot at best (and more likely, a third or fourth spot) in camp. Moreover, he'd have to learn a game that's drastically different for quarterbacks (more so than any other player), he'd have to hope he'd get some playing time, he'd have to hope his play impressed NFL people, and he'd then have to unlearn the Canadian game if he did somehow get another NFL shot. He also wouldn't get much money; the best starting quarterbacks in the CFL get around $500,000 or $600,000 annually, which is chump change compared to the numbers Manziel is used to, and he likely would get only a fraction of that thanks to being further down on the depth chart. Why does that make sense for Manziel?

Part of the problem here, as was seen with the Tebow saga, is that many people conflate "the CFL has been a pathway to the NFL for these players" with "the CFL can be a pathway back to the NFL for quarterbacks." Yes, there are tons of success stories of players who went from the CFL to the NFL recently, including the Dolphins' Cameron Wake, the Saints' Delvin Breaux and the Bears' Jerrell Freeman, and there are many more who at least parlayed CFL success into NFL deals (even if it didn't always work out). We've even seen another high-profile player try this recently in Michael Sam, although his CFL stint didn't even really work out (at least on the field; it made valuable off-field progress). These guys all have one thing in common, though; they're not quarterbacks.

The last CFL quarterback to find any level of success in the NFL was Jeff Garcia, and before him Doug Flutie and Warren Moon. Garcia was overlooked thanks to coming from a less-high profile school, while Flutie and Moon were overlooked by the NFL for discrimnatory factors like height and race. Since then, we've seen a few CFL legends (including Ricky Ray, Henry Burris and Anthony Calvillo) try to make it in the NFL, but they either didn't get signed (Calvillo), didn't get to play (Ray), or struggled when they did play (Burris). The leagues are incredibly different at quarterback, and while some of those CFL stars might have done better in the NFL with different sets of opportunities, if they couldn't parlay remarkable CFL success into a NFL career, that doesn't raise much hope for Manziel.

There are two big reasons that the CFL to NFL pathway works better for players other than quarterbacks; the game's less different, and you get more chances to play. Players like Wake, Breaux and Freeman received major playing time early in their CFL careers, which you can do as a defensive end, a defensive back or a linebacker given how many players take the field at those positions. It's also true for the many receivers we've seen go from the CFL to the NFL over the years. It's not true for quarterbacks; you play one quarterback at a time, and even working your way up to the backup slot is very difficult, especially if you come in with less CFL experience than the people ahead of you. Adjusting to the CFL for quarterbacks is a challenge, and one that often takes years. It's not a place where you can instantly come, play, cut a highlight tape and leave.

That's all before you get to the personal issues, which certainly raise red flags for any CFL team interested in Manziel. Manziel has had noted alcohol issues and recently walked back a pledge to stop drinking, and even more concerningly, he's still facing a domestic violence charge involving his former girlfriend. Granted, the CFL has accepted some players who have faced past accusations of domestic violence and threats, including current B.C. returner Chris Rainey, but they've reportedly expressed issues with others like Greg Hardy. Orridge told Seifert in another piece that "What's paramount to us is ensuring the success of an athlete, while at the same time preserving and promoting the integrity of the league and the game," so it sounds like they'd only sign Manziel if they were confident he wasn't going to bring disrepute to the game. Maybe that can happen, but if Manziel cleans up his act to the point where the CFL would consider him, that alone might be enough for the NFL to give him another look.

If Manziel wants to make it back to the NFL, he has several options that would appear more compelling. One would be to just focus on cleaning up his personal behavior and keep working out in the hopes of a NFL team signing him. That doesn't seem like a bad bet; Manziel has such a high profile, found so much success in college and was a first-round pick in 2014, and he's definitely still on the radar for NFL teams. When the inevitable quarterback injuries show up, if Manziel can answer a team's questions about his character,  it wouldn't be surprising to see someone at least work him out. Another option would be to try U.S.-based leagues such as the Arena Football League; he'd be a much bigger draw there and would likely get to play much sooner. It could also be that Manziel doesn't really care about the NFL any more, in which case this is all moot. In any case, a CFL career for him seems highly unlikely.