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CFL teams making 72% of two-point converts, proving it's the best option

Head coach John Hufnagel of the Calgary Stampeders watches his team's practice in Vancouver, British Columbia, November 28, 2014. The Calgary Stampeders will face the Hamilton Tiger-Cats in the 102nd Grey Cup at B.C Place on Sunday in Vancouver. REUTERS/Ben Nelms (CANADA - Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL) (REUTERS)

John Hufnagel, who is the CFL coach with the least to lose since he's leaving the sideline after this season, is the one making the most of going double or nothing after his players score a touchdown.

It might be cold comfort for the Hufnagel and his Calgary Stampeders to be informed of that when they are faced with a ratio crunch brought on by Jon Cornish's broken thumb. When the CFL made the change to the convert before the season, giving the teams a choice of scrimmaging from the three-yard line to pass or rush for two points or snap the ball from the 25-yard line for a one-point placekick, there was a speculation about how much coaches would take advantage of the change. Coaches, as John MacKinnon of the Edmonton Journal phrased it in a column last week, are "risk management fanatics, for whom the term 'upside' is inseparable from the ominous concept of 'downside.' "

There actually is little risk at all, based on the small sample size from the first quarter of the season.

Kickers have made 80.6 per cent (58-of-72) of 'longvert' attempts. The success rate on two-point converts is 72.4% (21-of-29), which is probably higher than anticipated when the rule was passed. Two of the fails came in the Edmonton-Ottawa splashfest on July 17, as well.

What happens when the two are combined à la effective field goal percentage in basketball, where a made three-point shot is given more weight than a two-point basket? It works out out 100 points in 101 tries, or 99%. That is only a smidge less than the 99.4% success rate across the last 15 seasons on convert kicks when the ball was scrimmaged from the five-yard line after touchdowns.

Under the command of Hufnagel and offensive coordinator Dave Dickenson, the head coach in waiting, the otherwise struggling Stampeders are a league-best 6-for-6 on two-point tries. Conversely, kicker Rene Paredes is just 3-for-5 on longverts even though he is one of the CFL's best booters.

Leaguewide, a few teams are getting more bang for their buck.

 

1M

1A

%

2M

2A

%

Pt

Att

Eff. %

Calgary

3

5

60

6

6

100

15

11

136.4%

Hamilton

9

9

100

2

2

100

13

11

118.2%

Toronto

7

8

87.5

4

6

66.7

15

14

107.1%

Saskatchewan

9

9

100

3

5

50

15

14

107.1%

Ottawa

4

5

80

3

5

60

10

10

100

B.C.

7

8

87.5

1

1

100

9

9

100

Winnipeg

6

10

60

2

2

100

10

12

83.3

Edmonton

8

11

81.8

0

1

0

8

12

66.7

Montreal

5

7

71.4

0

1

0

5

8

62.5

TOTAL

58

72

80.6%

21

29

72.4%

100

101

99.0

Both the high and low numbers are not sustainable. The success rate on one-point kicks is right in line with that for 31- to 33-yard field goals last season. It will likely go up over the balance of the season, as kickers get more comfortable with their snappers and holders. That said, four of the nine teams have a very healthy return on investment thanks to having decided, or been forced to while trailing or in overtime, to try more two-pointers. Ottawa's 80/60 success rate adds up to 100.

The stricter enforcement on illegal contact between receivers and defenders has probably played into it. Calgary converted twice in the first half last Friday in Ottawa with slant passes to receiver Marquay McDaniel that were basically indefensible.

The CFL's vast end zone also creates more possibilities. For instance, in that same game Ottawa converted by having a receiver run a shallow cross into the middle of the field, opening up a huge hole for Henry Burris to arc a pass to running back Jeremiah Johnson deep in the end zone. That play wouldn't be possible in the NFL, with its 10-yard-deep end zones and narrower gridiron.

It is doable in the CFL, though, which raises the question of why more teams aren't attempting such an exciting, high-yield play.

Of course, the CFL is a copycat league. Calgary was the lone team last week that let its offence try for two points when the margin didn't match up with Dick Vermeil's famous conversion chart. It lost its game, though. It's hard to imagine teams taking from an opponent that is muddling along at 3-2, even though the math says it should.

Curiously and coincidentally, the only teams that had missed longverts last week each won after their rookie kicker redeemed himself with a pressure kick for the deciding field goal. Ottawa's Delbert Alvarado and Toronto's Ronnie Pfeffer each missed converts whilst trying to extend the lead from three to four points after fourth-quarter touchdowns. Alvardo and Pfeffer each atoned with a game-winner after their opponents had tied the game with a field goal.

The negligible difference between a four- or five-point lead in the final minutes means no coach alive would have tried a two-point conversion in that situation. Recency bias, because the kickers each hit the 'big one,' also means a coach will trust him with the small ones, like after a touchdown in the first two quarters.

However, the math, factoring in for an anticipated regression, is on the side of the 12 players on offence rather than the specialists. Given the choice between 80-85% vs. 120-140% (a 60-70% chance on the two-point convert, doubled), more teams should choose the latter. It is understandable why they haven't so far.

Neate Sager is a writer for Yahoo! Canada Sports. Follow him on Twitter @naitSAYger.