Last year was not a good one for projecting pitcher performance based on the prior year’s strikeouts and walks, the way we do it here is (K-BB) divided by innings pitched.
But it worked wonderfully in 2014. Of course, the truth lies somewhere in between. This stat is the best tool we have in the pitcher projection toolbox but that is all contextual. It just means that players who demonstrated elite ratios of Ks and BBs in the prior year are bettable to have similar ratios in the upcoming year. They are not bankable to do this. Nothing is bankable.
What this methodology comes down to is betting on stats. We hope the (K-BB)/IP stat is as bettable as the obvious stats that directly impact our fantasy categories — ERA and WHIP especially. It generally should be. But individual mileage varies. So to gamble on the outliers — the pitchers who were much better in Ks and BBs than they are currently projected toRead More »from Pitching by the Numbers: Stat that can help you find fantasy value