Homers allowed are a quandary for fantasy baseball owners. They are worth about 1.4 runs allowed every time they occur yet they are relatively isolated events even at the most extreme levels. So the question becomes whether they are fact or fluke. In other words, do we blame pitchers for allowing homers and, if so, how much?
Stats like xFIP just normalize a rate based on fly balls allowed for everyone, essentially stipulating that homers allowed are completely random. But this seems like an overcorrection; if pitchers are not to be blamed at all for homers, what are we even doing here in projecting them? Hits are random. Homers are random. Are strikeouts the fault of the hitter, too? Obviously this becomes ridiculous when you proceed even halfway down the slippery slope.
So this week let’s look at the homers allowed leaders through Wednesday, using homers per nine innings. These are the only stats my database allowed me to sort by date. And I needed to do this to see in recent yearsRead More »from Predicting pitchers set to improve behind homer correction