We’re focusing this week on post-All-Star break career stats for pitchers and also for hitters in order to at least consider some players who historically have appreciably improved and declined as the season has worn on.
These splits of course are arbitrary end points. So we can’t invest in them too heavily. However, it’s certainly theoretically plausible that some players wear down and others do not. After all, we have sprinters and marathoners in track and field, not just “runners.”
But this can all be largely random noise. While some will say that if players perform significantly better over their careers in large enough samples (we used 200 innings each half for pitchers and 500 plate appearances for hitters), then that is ipso facto significant/non-random. But the thought exercise here is that if we knew for certain that performance in the first- and second-half of a season is completely random, would we expectRead More »from Players who have historically surged or faltered in second half