Let’s focus on the pitchers who have ERAs that are not supported by their strikeout and walk performance, meaning they are unfairly high or low.
The stat here is strikeouts minus walks divided by innings pitched. The league average on Monday among pitchers who qualify for the ERA title is 0.56. The league leader is Felix Hernandez at 1.27. Hey, he’s pretty good! In fact, his 1.91 ERA has actually been a little unlucky. The league trailer, and the only pitcher in negative territory in the stat is A.J. Burnett (minus-0.04). But Burnett has a 2.74 ERA that has not killed his owners. (In fairness, he’s also pitching with a hernia that’s been a problem all year and will require surgery.)
Burnett illustrates the problem with projections. Even if the stat is very solid, as I believe Ks minus BBs/IP is, we need past performance in the stat to approximate future performance. Some of the pitchers like Burnett that I touted this preseason because of excellence in the stat in 2013 have notRead More »from Pitching by the Numbers: Looking for luck