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(Ed. Note: 'Bizonkers' of course being a slang term popularized by NHL Commissioner and cunning linguist Gary Bettman.)

Now that we're seeing which teenage phenoms will be staying up in the big leagues and which ones are shipping off to juniors, it's become fairly obvious that the race for the Calder Trophy is going to be extraordinarily competitive -- depending, of course, on the fates and fortunes of some teams defying expectations right now.

Which is to say that if the Colorado Avalanche and the New York Rangers are both going to be in serious contention this season, the rookie race will be very interesting.

First, let's take a gander at some early returns for the kiddie corps, via NHL.com:

Rangers defenseman Michael Del Zotto(notes) wasn't even mentioned in the 2009-10 Hockey's Future Calder watch, which should tell you everything you need to know about how ahead of schedule he's been for New York. He's playing fewer minutes on average than fellow Rangers rookie D-man Matt Gilroy(notes) (19:04), but he's third in the League in average power-play ice time (4:14) behind John Tavares(notes) (4:44) and Victor Hedman(notes) (5:23, which is currently ninth most in the NHL).

Tavares is right on schedule: Point-per-game pace, balanced stats, a ton of ice time for a rookie forward. He's playing on a line with New York Islanders young standout Kyle Okposo(notes), and he's turning Matt Moulson(notes) into his own private Rob Brown.

Hedman's about where he should be, too: Plenty of ice time for the Tampa Bay Lightning, a few points and a few penalty minutes.

But it's the players between Tavares and Hedman on this chart that have made the race immediately compelling. Evander Kane(notes) has likely played his way onto the Atlanta Thrashers for the season, and hulking defenseman Tyler Myers(notes) did the same for the Buffalo Sabres. Jason Demers(notes) has been a sleeper for the San Jose Sharks, playing with Kent Huskins(notes) at even strength and manning a power-play point with Dan Boyle(notes) on the first unit. Jamie Benn(notes) has found a home with Dallas Stars standouts Brenden Morrow(notes) and Mike Ribeiro(notes).

Oh, and then there's Ryan O'Reilly(notes) and Matt Duchene(notes) of the Avalanche. They're pretty good, too.

In the case of Duchene, much, much better than anticipated. We'd venture to say he's the most exciting rookie we've seen this season, despite the four points in nine games. As Coach Joe Sacco -- and really, when does the lovefest start for him? -- told the media this week about Duchene and O'Reilly:

Matt is probably one of our leading chance getters right now. He's creating lots of chances not only for himself, but for his teammates. It was good to see him get that first goal. I know that he's been pressing a little bit, but he's gonna provide us probably with some more offense. A guy, again, that has a lot of speed and pushes the opposition's defenseman back.

We're not putting a lot of pressure on these guys. They don't have to feel like the weight of the world is on their shoulders. We also have them surrounded by some good players where they can just kind of come in and do their thing.

Indeed ... although one wonders how those pressures would change if the Avs' fortunes did.

Again, this is just a focus on the top 10 in scoring. It's not taking into account the progress of James Van Riemsdyk(notes) of the Philadelphia Flyers; Ville Leino(notes) of the Detroit Red Wings; Davis Drewiske(notes) of the Los Angeles Kings; or Dmitry Kulikov(notes) of the Florida Panthers.

Plus, we haven't seen players like Nikita Filatov(notes) of the Columbus Blue Jackets or Nicklas Bergfors(notes) of the New Jersey Devils kick it into high gear ... if they ever will.

It's a fantastic rookie class and a fascinating race already; no telling how more fascinating it gets if either Semyon Varlamov(notes) or Jonas Gustavsson(notes) decide to get all Steve Mason(notes)-ish on the skaters and push for the prize.

Defensemen have a large hill to climb to win the Calder, as Drew Doughty(notes) showed last season. Goalies have an easier path. If a guy like Del Zotto is going to take home the trophy, it's going to be with an impressive offensive body of work; which will depend greatly on whether the Rangers' offense continues to excel.

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  1. Sara
    1. Posted by Sara Thu Oct 22, 2009 12:20 pm EDT

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    I can't speak of all the other rookies cause I've seen very few play, but Kane is shaping up to be a stellar all-around player. He's already logging heavy PK minutes (successfully at that) to go with his grit and scoring abilities. Not too sure how many of the others, outside of a D-man like Hedman, can boast that.
  2. Mike R
    2. Posted by Mike R Thu Oct 22, 2009 12:30 pm EDT

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    If it's anything of a drag to your stats, Filatov has been scratched more than once this season. The 10 guys on that chart are the ones most likely to take ROY honors.
  3. CraigB
    3. Posted by CraigB Thu Oct 22, 2009 12:31 pm EDT

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    Gary Bettman a "cunning linguist" ??
    ROFLMAO
    (Good one!)
  4. Scotty Hockey
    4. Posted by Scotty Hockey Thu Oct 22, 2009 12:41 pm EDT

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    I just had this convo with BD last night on Facebook - trippy. He wanted to set up a bet between our blogs as to JT vs MDZ for Calder. I passed, pointing out that well-hyped high draft picks have an advantage and defensemen have a disadvantage, also mentioning that Doughty got screwed. Just two defensemen have won in the last 20 years - Bryan Berard and Barrett Jackman - and bother were in mediocre rookie crops. This year's battle is certainly a good one and, like OV over Crosby, a very good guy (or several very good guys) will lose but the game wins with the high talent level ...
  5. decappa
    5. Posted by decappa Thu Oct 22, 2009 12:43 pm EDT

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    MDZ is looking pretty damn good!
  6. books
    6. Posted by books Thu Oct 22, 2009 12:51 pm EDT

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    One unsustainable state to note for Del Zotto - 30.8% shooting %. No way any one can keep that up especially not a d-man. I expect him to fall back in the pack somewhat although he's defiently been waiver wire gold in the fantasy world so far. Barring any injury I'd say Tavres has the best chance of winning the Calder. He's got the highest profile and if the numbers are even all the hype surrounding him should give him the edge.
  7. Treads
    7. Posted by Treads Thu Oct 22, 2009 12:58 pm EDT

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    It certainly doesn't hurt Del Zotto chances playing in a huge media market. He'll receive a lot more pub than every one except Tavares. Its not like the media will forget who went first overall in this year's draft. Hedman just plays for a bad team and when was the last time a Calder winner came from a bad team.
  8. rmc235
    8. Posted by rmc235 Thu Oct 22, 2009 1:00 pm EDT

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    Too early to decide who will be in the race or not. Yes, rookies have had their starts and impressions by now, but the season is young. Let the season play out and we will see who the superstars of tomorrow will be.
  9. David
    9. Posted by David Thu Oct 22, 2009 1:06 pm EDT

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    OV 2005.......
  10. jc
    10. Posted by jc Thu Oct 22, 2009 1:10 pm EDT

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    What were the predictions last year for ROTY? Who finally won it?
  11. OzFraud
    11. Posted by OzFraud Thu Oct 22, 2009 1:46 pm EDT

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    What about Ben Ferreiro? Would he be considered a rookie?
  12. bizkit 510
    12. Posted by bizkit 510 Thu Oct 22, 2009 2:11 pm EDT

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    @MIKE R Wow, already a Filatov hater are we? It's a little early to give anyone the Calder. Let's give it another month or so and see where things are. I haven't seen all of them yet, but I am very impressed with Duchene. I can't believe how well the Avs are playing and a lot of it has to do with Duchene and his burst of fresh energy. Tavares seems like the real deal as well. As a hard core Jackets fan though, I am rooting for Filatov to heat things up and make his own push to keep the trophy in Columbus for another year.
    GO JACKETS!!!
  13. Guy F
    13. Posted by Guy F Thu Oct 22, 2009 2:35 pm EDT

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    My God, can you imagine what a complete and utter blow-out the World Junior championships would be if the Canadian team had ALL their eligible players. Eight of those 10 players are Canadian (4 OHL, 3 WHL, 1 QMJHL)
    Filatov will be f-ed over by Hitchcock just like Brule was. Too bad, otherwise Nikita would definitely be in the mix.
    I still stand by my PRESEASON predictions for All-Rookie team :
    D - Gilroy, Myers
    F - Tavares with Leino and Filatov
    G- Varlamov
    Now, after watching Del Zotto v.s. the Leafs, Gilroy may have to be flipped for MDZ. However, at 25, I still believe Gilroy has a better chance of handling adversity and the NHL grind. Regarding Filatov, see above. So, being totally WHL bias, I'd like to see Jamie Benn make the team in Filatov's place. How is Leino not on the list above?
    Detroit will turn things around and Ville Leino will be a part of that IMO.
  14. pharrison1973@...
    14. Posted by pharrison1973@... Thu Oct 22, 2009 2:44 pm EDT

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    Ville Leino is still my pick to win it.
  15. habs1rule
    15. Posted by habs1rule Thu Oct 22, 2009 2:45 pm EDT

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    Can someone please tell me how Canadiens fan can talk about Gaineys prospects years after year, and still I'm waiting for just one of these players to make a Calder Trophy list....Louie Leblanc in about five years, I guess.
  16. whattheF
    16. Posted by whattheF Thu Oct 22, 2009 2:46 pm EDT

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    agreed, the av's are playing very well, but watch out for jamie benn as well...playing with morrow and ribiero he is bound to get a ton of chances.
  17. Svipal
    17. Posted by Svipal Thu Oct 22, 2009 2:48 pm EDT

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    I doubt Del Zotto is going to keep up that pace.
  18. Pensfan71
    18. Posted by Pensfan71 Thu Oct 22, 2009 3:05 pm EDT

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    Its great to see so many young rookies having success so early in the season. I hope this trend continues so we can get old bums like Kris Draper etc...out of the league soon. So far I'd have to say Del Zotto and Myers have been the most impressive I've seen. I think Gilroy has looked better the MDZ but hes not putting up points like MDZ. I hope Hitchcock doesnt ride Filitov to hard he seems like another fragile Russian. (see Frolov). Filitov has already said is he doesnt like the way things go in Columbus this year hes going back to Russia and that would be a shame. Hes got so much talent, but not a good fit on the Columbus team. How about Chris Kunitz for Filitov....c,mon...please...
  19. Michael H
    19. Posted by Michael H Thu Oct 22, 2009 3:26 pm EDT

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    lol, that'd be pretty awesome if Demers had a chance. Right now he shows flashes of greatness(mainly his hard shot), and then he has tons of turnovers in the defensive zone...
    Looks like Tavares could definitely win it, with a name like his he'd probably be voted on over a no-namer dman.
    Would be kinda hilarious if Moulson beat Tavares for it though, being the 9th round pick and all. (PS, why isn't moulson on this list?? 8 points puts him up there with the best, and isn't it 25 games to not be considered a rookie? he played 22 once)
  20. Flyers2010
    20. Posted by Flyers2010 Thu Oct 22, 2009 3:44 pm EDT

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    I would just like to point out that you are missing JVR from Philly who has already put up 4 points in 4 games, considering Philly has only played 6 games you gotta give the kid a chance with this crowd.
  21. Russ Cargill
    21. Posted by Russ Cargill Thu Oct 22, 2009 3:46 pm EDT

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    My two early season favorite is: Evander Kane. It will only help him that he's playing with Rich Peveley, one of the most under-rated passers in the league.
  22. Holy Diver 83
    22. Posted by Holy Diver 83 Thu Oct 22, 2009 3:49 pm EDT

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    Agreed where is Moulson golden on that list? He looks real good so far. Is always in front of the net, digging for the puck and gets his shots on goal. Being an Isles Fan that his RARE!
  23. Flyers2010
    23. Posted by Flyers2010 Thu Oct 22, 2009 3:50 pm EDT

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    My bad Wysh, wrote my comment before finishing the article.
  24. Flyers2010
    24. Posted by Flyers2010 Thu Oct 22, 2009 3:50 pm EDT

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    My bad Wysh, wrote my comment before finishing the article.
  25. Russ Cargill
    25. Posted by Russ Cargill Thu Oct 22, 2009 3:52 pm EDT

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    Michael H...I agree with you about Moulson and was going to say that he WILL put up better numbers than Tavares, however he's not a rookie. He played solid games for LA previously. I think they mean fresh rookies. Otherwise I would include Brule. Why would anyone say leino, he isn't doing anything.

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