Week 9 playoff forecast: Ravens make big jump

By Stephen Oh, AccuScore Nov 4, 2:49 pm EST

Simulation based forecasting & methodology: AccuScore uses past player performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, match-up, and game situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups, AccuScore simulates each game of the 2009 season one play at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game, AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game, winning their division, making the playoffs, advancing in the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl.

AFC

The Ravens potentially saved their season with a huge win over the Broncos. They improved their playoff chances by more than 20 percentage points not only because they beat a good team, but the defensive performance bodes well for them to play better the rest of the season. The Bengals were on a Bye week but dropped 18 points because the Ravens, Texans and Chargers all won and they are the Bengals’ primary playoff competitors. The Browns and Steelers’ chances are unchanged after Week 8. Cleveland continues to have zero-percent chance.

By beating the Jets twice, the Dolphins have slashed the Jets’ playoff chances by more than a third to just 13 percent. While the Dolphins’ win hurt the Jets, it barely helped their own as they improved by just 2 points. The Dolphins are still just 3-4 and have a fairly tough remaining schedule that includes two Patriots games and the Steelers. The Dolphins can soar up the rankings if they shock the Patriots on the road in Week 9. Right now everything looks good for New England as the Pats may be the only team in the division likely to finish above .500 and now have a nearly 90 percent chance of winning the AFC East.

The Broncos suffered their first defeat and with victories by possible wild-card competitors (Baltimore, San Diego, Houston), their playoff chances did drop eight points, but the Broncos are still at a very strong 87 percent chance of making the playoffs. The Chargers will definitely need to win in Denver in Week 11 if they hope to close the gap in the division which is currently favors the Broncos at 73 (compared to San Diego’s 27). Denver has the benefit of having three more games against lowly Kansas City and Oakland, but Denver also has to face Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, the Giants, and the Colts later this year.

The Colts were challenged in Week 8 but they still won and have nearly a 100 percent chance of making the playoffs. The Texans improved their chances by 10 points thanks to a road win over Buffalo. However, if Houston loses in Week 9 to Indianapolis, expect their chances to drop by at least five points next week. The Texans are 5-3, but their playoff chances lag behind the 4-3 Chargers and Ravens because their odds of winning their division are so slight and they only have two games where they would be heavy favorites on their remaining schedule. They face the Colts twice, the Jaguars on the road, at Miami, New England and Tennessee, a team that definitely has the talent to play spoiler in Week 11.

AFC Week 8 review Playoff Perc. chance
Team Wk 8 Wk 9 Perc. diff. Win div.
Baltimore Ravens 33.4% 56.4% 23.0% 19.4%
Houston Texans 11.2% 21.6% 10.4% 0.8%
San Diego Chargers 60.3% 65.6% 5.3% 26.7%
Miami Dolphins 15.7% 17.9% 2.2% 7.8%
New England Patriots 90.5% 91.7% 1.2% 87.5%
Pittsburgh Steelers 90.0% 90.8% 0.9% 65.0%
Kansas City Chiefs 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cleveland Browns 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Titans 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakland Raiders 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indianapolis Colts 99.9% 99.8% -0.1% 99.1%
Buffalo Bills 3.5% 1.7% -1.9% 0.7%
New York Jets 20.0% 12.6% -7.4% 3.9%
Jacksonville Jaguars 12.5% 5.0% -7.5% 0.1%
Denver Broncos 95.2% 87.3% -7.9% 73.3%
Cincinnati Bengals 67.8% 49.7% -18.1% 15.6%

NFC

The Giants have gone from having an 83-percent chance of making the playoffs after Week 5 to just a 38-percent chance. Their dropoff is not just due to three straight losses, but also the way they lost. They are allowing a ton of points to good passing offenses. The Giants face the Chargers, Falcons, Cowboys, Eagles and Vikings – all teams that could put up 30-plus against the defense. While the Giants fall, the Cowboys and Eagles both rise. The Eagles jumped more than 26 percentage points by crushing the Giants and the Cowboys improved by six points with the opportunity to take the division lead by upsetting Philadelphia in Week 9.

Minnesota has a stranglehold on the NFC North and is now playing for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. They are forecasted for 13 wins which is two more than third-place Philadelphia in the NFC, but still one behind the Saints. The Packers lost to Brett Favre(notes) and the Vikings, but still hold the big edge over Chicago for a possible wild card (61 to 26 percent) because they are 1-0 against Chicago and the Bears have the tougher remaining schedule. The Packers do not have to face the Vikings again while Chicago has two games against the Minnesota, while also playing Arizona, Philadelphia, at San Francisco and Baltimore. With just 2 “easy” wins (vs. St. Louis- at Detroit) the rest of the year, Chicago will be fortunate to win more than four of their remaining games.

The Cardinals appeared to have a top-tier running defense to go along with their prolific passing offense, but the Panthers ran all over them. Luckily for Arizona, the 49ers suffered another tough loss and the Seahawks do not appear to be any better than last season. Arizona’s playoff chances actually were unchanged despite losing a home game where they were 75-percent favorites. The Cardinals only have a one-game lead and lost to San Francisco at home, but they still have the 80 to 20 percent edge to win the division because they have four “easy” wins (vs. St. Louis; at St. Louis, Tennessee and Detroit) vs. three “easy” wins for the 49ers (vs. Tennessee and Detroit; at St. Louis) the rest of the season. But, as the Panthers showed in Week 8, there is no such thing as an easy win and the 49ers seem to have a better chance than their 18 percent would indicate.

Carolina improved its playoff chances nearly 10 times by upsetting Arizona, but that unfortunately is an improvement of 0.1 percent up to 1 percent. The NFC South is clearly a two-team race between the Saints and Falcons, but the Saints have the clear-cut edge after holding on to the Monday night win. The Saints matched the Colts with a 99.8 percent chance of making the playoffs and Atlanta now only has a two-percent chance of winning the division. Atlanta still is right in the thick of the wild-card race with a 45-percent chance of making the playoffs. They may end up in a race with the NFC East teams for the final wild-card spot.

NFC Week 8 review Playoff Perc. chance
Team Wk 8 Wk 9 % DIFF WIN DIV
Philadelphia Eagles 43.6% 70.2% 26.6% 49.7%
Chicago Bears 12.7% 25.6% 12.9% 3.5%
Dallas Cowboys 50.7% 56.8% 6.1% 33.0%
Minnesota Vikings 93.2% 98.7% 5.5% 94.2%
Seattle Seahawks 2.8% 4.0% 1.2% 3.7%
Carolina Panthers 0.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.0%
New Orleans Saints 99.5% 99.8% 0.3% 98.0%
St. Louis Rams 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Washington Redskins 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Detroit Lions 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arizona Cardinals 81.5% 80.8% -0.7% 79.5%
San Francisco 49ers 23.6% 18.3% -5.3% 16.7%
Green Bay Packers 73.1% 61.7% -11.5% 2.3%
Atlanta Falcons 60.6% 45.1% -15.5% 2.0%
New York Giants 58.6% 38.0% -20.6% 17.2%

Updated Nov 4, 2:49 pm EST
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