Maple Leafs' rookie trio on pace to join elite company

The Toronto Maple Leafs’ rebuild seems to be nearing a conclusion. After two straight seasons in the NHL cellar, the Leafs are challenging for a playoff spot, largely thanks to the offensive contributions of a trio of top rookies: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander.

Comparing the first seasons of those players to past NHLers at the same age leads to one inevitable conclusion: The Leafs have struck gold here, especially with Matthews and Marner.

There is a tier above Toronto’s rookies. Matthews ranks fourth in points-per-game among 19-year-old players in the lockout era (since 1994-95). There are three skaters ahead of him, and each has some clearance: Sidney Crosby, Steven Stamkos and Connor McDavid.

That’s the whole list of clearly superior scorers. Meanwhile, the company Matthews and Marner are keeping is highly impressive in its own right.

With the lone exception of Alexandre Daigle, that’s a lovely group of players, with each of them scoring at an 80-point pace at least once by age 24. Daigle flamed out early, so the Leafs should know right away if they’re dealing with that kind of scenario. If they aren’t, having Vincent Lecavalier as the least productive member of this set of comparables is incredibly impressive.

Nylander’s production doesn’t put him in the same peer group. We have more information on him, as he’s been in the NHL for parts of two seasons now. As a result we can add some clarity to our list of comparable players, whittling it down to just those skaters who are close matches at both age 19 and 20.

This is a solid collection of talent. Jason Spezza sticks out like a sore thumb and is clearly a best-case scenario, but the other skaters above were all productive NHL forwards. Even Nikolai Zherdev was a pretty reliable 60-point winger in his early 20s.

There’s another area that deserves consideration: Shot generation.

Of all the 19-year-old forwards of the lockout era, only one averaged more shots-per-game than Matthews has this season: Stamkos, and just barely. Then it’s a big step back down to Rick Nash in the No. 3 slot.

It’s too early to know what Matthews’ career shooting percentage is going to look like, but if it’s anywhere near this season’s 15 percent clip he could end up being the premier goal-scoring forward in the NHL.

Alex Ovechkin, who in many ways is a class unto himself, must be mentioned here. His shot rate as a rookie is without modern parallel, but because he didn’t enter the league until his age 20 season — as defined by hockey-reference.com — he isn’t included above. Matthews would need to increase his numbers significantly to compare to Washington’s captain in shot volume.

In all cases, the offensive picture looks bright for these players. As important as offence is, though, it isn’t the whole story. A more difficult assessment is that of two-way play, and that’s where some of hockey’s newer statistics can help us.

Relative Fenwick percentage sounds like a complicated stat, but it’s reasonably straight forward. Fenwick is the combination of all shots and missed shots taken with a given player on the ice at 5-on-5. If his team breaks even with him out there, he’s a 50 percent Fenwick player, and if he does better the number goes higher. This stat correlates strongly with scoring chances and is more predictive of future on-ice goal scoring than goals themselves are — because there are so many more shot attempts than there are goals, a usable sample is created faster.

The “relative” part of the stat just adjusts it for team ability. It’s more impressive to be a 50 percent Fenwick player on a 45 percent Fenwick team than it is on a 55 percent Fenwick team. It’s not a perfect measure by any stretch, and things like linemates and coaching usage can have a big impact, but it does offer us a window into player ability.

Consider Nail Yakupov as an example. Yakupov’s scoring as a rookie (31 points in 48 games) was actually quite impressive. But only two 19-year-old forwards since the start of the analytics age (2007-08) had a worse relative Fenwick than Yakupov did that season, and both of them had the excuse of much tougher minutes than Yakupov did.

On the other hand, prior to this season the three best 19-year-olds by relative Fenwick were Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nathan MacKinnon and McDavid, all of whom are quality players.

There are some extremely good NHLers, including John Tavares and Jonathan Toews, who didn’t post great Fenwick numbers at age 19, so a poor showing here can’t be seen as definitive. The reverse doesn’t seem to be true, though: Basically any player who managed to significantly outperform his team in this area has gone on to have a solid career.

That’s good news for Matthews, who slots in right next to McDavid by this statistic. Nylander at age 19 (before he got Matthews as a linemate) is a little further down, but he too fits into the top-15, right behind Ryan O’Reilly. Marner is lower on the spectrum, but given that he’s in the same range as Tavares there’s little reason to be overly concerned about that.

These statistics, then, tend to confirm what most observers of the Maple Leafs already had figured out.

Matthews is obviously the best player in the bunch, one who stands out as elite for his age group by either traditional scoring numbers or analytics. Marner is an exceptional offensive talent, but there’s a little more room for doubt about the degree to which he drives puck possession. Nylander falls a little lower on the offensive totem pole but helps keep the puck in the right end of the rink.

All three are splendid young players. Their impact on the ice is already generating results as the Leafs look to close out their rebuild and compete for a playoff spot. This should be just the beginning, and when they enter their prime Toronto could find itself with a very formidable hockey club.