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Even the Charlie Weis haters among Notre Dame fans haven't had much reason for complaint through the first two months as far as the Weis "hot seat" watch goes: The Irish were on track for 10 wins, showed a penchant for winning close, exciting games with one of the nation's most prolific offenses, were 11 combined points from beating Michigan and USC in their only two losses and ended their losing streak against winning teams by beating Boston College. All in all, a perfectly respectable year.

But still ...

Now that the Irish have lost to Navy for the second time in two years -- both in South Bend after beating the Midshipmen 43 years in a row in any location -- and forfeited any realistic opportunity at slipping into a BCS bowl, the next three games against Pittsburgh, UConn and Stanford (combined record: 18-8) may be a referendum for Weis' job. If ND drops any of them, this kid's going to have some company (again).

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Hat tip: Deadspin.

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Ohio State 24, Penn State 7. We don't know exactly how the season is going to play out -- it could very well be, for example, that Penn State just isn't very good. We didn't know much about the Lions coming in, but their offensive malaise and the quiet, steady effectiveness of the Buckeye running game followed exactly the script of Penn State's only other loss this season, in its only other game against another team at the top of the conference. With their lame nonconference schedule and losses to the only teams on the Big Ten slate that might currently fit anyone's definition of "good," there's no evidence at all that the Lions stack up to the top-15 ranking they've carried all season.

But there's not much question on my end that this is Ohio State's best win since the 2006 team finished its perfect regular season against No.2 Michigan, just before launching the "big game" curse against Florida in the subsequent BCS title game that's followed the Buckeyes ever since. OSU finally played exactly the way it wanted to play against one of the best teams on the schedule -- running for 200-plus yards, getting two touchdown passes with no turnovers from Terrelle Pryor, taking advantage of good field position and forcing seven three-and-outs from the Nittany Lion offense -- and did it on the road. It's not the national championship, but it is the first time Pryor or the vast majority of teammates can come out of a verifiably big game with their heads held high.

With Iowa's loss to Northwestern, it also sets up the Buckeyes on the track to their first Rose Bowl appearance in more than a decade: They'll be favored to beat the Hawkeyes next week in Columbus, which will put OSU in sole possession of first place in the conference with only badly reeling Michigan standing between it and Pasadena. If they manage to take two must-win conference games in a row and dispatch their hated rival for the sixth consecutive year after nearly losing control of the season in an ugly loss at Purdue, of all places, the Bucks will deserve the trip, and deserve to enjoy it no matter what other big-game demons are sure to await them when they get there.

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Navy 23, Notre Dame 21. Watching a game like this unfold is almost a surreal experience when you stop to size up the absurd physical differences between these two teams, especially between Notre Dame's offense and Navy's defense. It's one thing to think about how difficult it must be for the Midshipmen's secondary to match up with Notre Dame's 6-foot-6 god of a receiver, Michael Floyd, and another altogether to actually observe the physical impossibility of it with your own eyes, even on television.

And it's not like Navy really stopped Notre Dame's high-flying offense, either, despite the final score: Floyd and receiving mate Golden Tate hauled in 19 passes between them for 275 yards, more than half of the Irish's 513-yard total, and ND didn't punt once.

But Navy was able to mitigate the damage by limiting big plays -- before Tate's 31-yard catch-and-run for Notre Dame's last (and ultimately meaningless) touchdown in the final minute, the Midshipmen hadn't allowed a play longer than 30 yards, forcing the Irish to string together long drives that more often than not ended in the Middies' favor; five ND drives of seven plays or longer ended deep in Navy territory with the Irish failing to put points on the board. More importantly, the Midshipmen forced turnovers, three of them, including a Jimmy Clausen fumble at the Navy goal line and then a pick off Clausen inside the Navy five in the fourth quarter. Most of the Irish's obscene output was sound and fury in the service, ultimately, of nothing.

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Purdue 38, Michigan 36. Mathematically, Michigan is still alive for a bowl game, but at this point, that's like saying "Chrysler is still solvent" or "People are still watching the new Jay Leno show." Technically, yes: At 5-5, if the Wolverines upset Wisconsin on the road or end their five-year losing streak against Ohio State, a bid to the Little Caesar's Bowl may be waiting for them.

Let's rephrase that with a few more pieces of key information: If the Wolverines snap out of a five-game conference losing streak in which they've now allowed 500 yards and 38 points apiece to Illinois and Purdue in back-to-back weeks to knock off one of the top teams in the conference, they can eke out a bid to the least prestigious postseason date in school history. That's the best-case scenario.

Today, at home against another struggling outfit struggling just to stay out of the conference cellar (Purdue was routed last week 37-0 by Wisconsin), was the chance for Michigan to end that malaise and salvage whatever goodwill remained from the 4-0 start in September. Instead, the beleaguered secondary gave up four completions of at least 30 yards in the worst aerial assault against Wolverine D (367 yards) since USC in the 2006/07 Rose Bowl. Aside from defensive end Brandon Graham, this rock-bottom defense is like last year's rock-bottom offense: Outmanned, condemned from the outset by a shockingly bare cupboard at key positions and careening quickly toward historic depths every time the ball goes in the air.

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Northwestern 17, Iowa 10. Anytime a nondescript, 16.5-point underdog rebounds from a quick 10-point hole to upend a 9-0 national-title contender on the road, that is a "shocking" result. There was no reason to think Iowa might lose to a team with a gimpy starting quarterback and whose marquee wins to date included unlikely, skin-of-the-teeth comebacks against Purdue and Indiana. The Hawkeyes' miracle season obviously was not supposed to end here -- next week at Ohio State, maybe, but not at home, to Northwestern.

I find it hard to believe, though, that anyone who pays greater heed to probability than to miracles is actually experiencing anything like actual shock, especially after quarterback Ricky Stanzi's ignominious exit with an ankle injury on the end zone fumble turned Northwestern touchdown that turned the game in the second quarter and collapsed the Hawkeyes' Jenga tower of a season in a matter of seconds. At some point, it had to happen: Iowa had already survived the loss of its top three running backs and a starting offensive lineman for the season, as well as its best offensive player for a crucial three-game stretch earlier in the season, and emerged unscathed after fourth-quarter comebacks against Northern Iowa, Penn State, Michigan State and Indiana. When you're saddled with one of the worst offenses in the conference, there are only so many miracles at your disposal.

As much heat as he's taken for his perfectly mediocre performance through the first two months (and his five-interception schizo act against Indiana, in particular), Stanzi's injury was the obvious breaking point. At least the resourceful junior gave the Hawkeyes a chance to move the ball: Their first three drives covered 159 yards and put 10 points on the board off a 74-yard touchdown pass from Stanzi to Marvin McNutt and a 30-yard strike to Trey Stross that set up the field goal. The final eight drives, all led by redshirt freshman James Vandenberg, covered 131 yards, entered Northwestern territory only once and produced zero points. Vandernberg's first pass was a laser directly into the chest of a linebacker that set up the Wildcats' go-ahead touchdown, and his longest completion was just 16 yards. He repeatedly missed open receivers Stanzi may have hit. The high wire snapped when No. 12 went down.

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Today's lineup isn't really as mediocre as all that, despite the frustration of both marquee, national-interest games -- LSU-Alabama and Ohio State-Penn State -- competing with one another in the afternoon slot. Major unbeaten teams are defending their title chances early (Iowa, Texas) and late (Florida, Cincinnati) and old rivals are hooking up in Manhattan, Chapel Hill and Lincoln; the Pac-10 alone offers six of the conference's seven winning teams squaring off in Palo Alto, Berkeley and Tempe. The big games should live up to the hype, but something unexpected and interesting is going to happen outside of Tuscaloosa or Happy Valley.

What: Game day live blog. All games in play, all comments welcome and all alma maters accepted.
When: First kick at noon Eastern; chat kicks roughly simultaneously. The blog will run throughout the day, through the primetime tilts -- although, as intriguing as an evening in the Kibbie Dome may be, don't hold your breath for midnight-oil action in the WAC.
Who: You and all your rowdy friends. Come loud, proud and keeping your head on a swivel. We're not responsible for what may happen if you don't.
How: Hit "Watch Now," enter comments into the available box and do your part to accelerate the slow, agonizing death of conventional journalism.
Why: Because lobbing snarky barbs at earnest adolescents never gets old, especially when there are endless Kafka jokes on tap for the early afternoon. Football!

Ten hyper-specific predictions.

• Despite rumors of his reinstatement this week, suspended Oregon running back LeGarrette Blount doesn't show at all at Stanford -- not that the Ducks need him as they pile up more than 250 yards rushing on more than six yards per carry for the third consecutive week despite also allowing 100 yards to Stanford's Toby Gerhart and finishing in a six-minute hole in overall time of possession. Freshman running back LaMichael James, sitting on 918 rushing yards, goes over 1,000 for the season in the first half.

• Iowa never trails against Northwestern, yet manages to fully examine the apparent hopelessness and absurdity that seem to permeate the works of Northwestern quarterback Mike Kafka by turning the Wildcats away at least three times inside the Hawkeye 30-yard line, including a pair of turnovers by Kafka that lead him to demand the game film be burned before viewing by the rest of the team on Sunday. After throwing five interceptions in last week's wild comeback over Indiana, Iowa quarterback Ricky Stanzi doesn't throw an interception but still frustrates the home crowd during a stretch of at least three straight possessions without taking the offense into Wildcat territory.

• In Berkeley, Oregon State running back Jacquizz Rodgers piles up more yards than California's top backs, Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen, combined, and picks off Bear quarterback Kevin Riley multiple times in a close but convincing road upset.

• Oklahoma trails early at Nebraska but piles up more than 200 yards rushing between backs DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown and holds the Cornhuskers out of the end zone in the second half, during which Nebraska coach Bo Pelini draws a 15-yard penalty for exploding against officials following a critical call. The 'Husker offense finished below 300 total yards for the fourth time in five games.

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Nothing in LSU's first six games suggests the Tigers have any hope of upsetting a top-three rival on the road. This was a team that struggled mightily against Washington in the opener and required a dramatic goal line stand to win at Mississippi State -- without defensive and special teams touchdowns that overcame the Tigers' offensive malaise in those games, there wasn't much to suggest they could win anywhere of any consequence. After coming back to beat Georgia in a game that featured zero touchdowns in the first three quarters, LSU returned home to narrowly avoid being shut out by Florida, 13-3, without coming close to the end zone. The offense still ranks dead last in the SEC in total yards per game.

For the optimists, though, there are the last two weeks, in which the LSU offense has found a little life off a post-Florida bye: The Tigers racked up 31 points against Auburn, their best output against the division's other Tigers since 2002, and hung 42 points on overmatched Tulane, their first game this year with 40 points or (not and) 400 total yards. Jordan Jefferson is emerging as one of the most efficient passers in the SEC, and his backup, true freshman Russell Sheppard, is coming on as a dangerous big-play threat as a runner, with long touchdowns runs in each of the last two games to complement the between-the-tackles thumping of regular tailback Charles Scott.

And by all appearances, this is the right time to catch Alabama. The Tide's surprisingly balanced offense through their 4-0 start in September has disappeared into a cloud of dust as they get deeper into the SEC slate, carried to a great extent by the Heisman-worthy legs of Mark Ingram but still held out of the end zone entirely by Tennessee and in three of four quarters by both Ole Miss and South Carolina. Quarterback Greg McElroy has looked increasingly like the "game manager" holding down 'Bama's rankings in the preseason, and the perfect season has looked increasingly vulnerable as the weeks go by.

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That's right, it's another Friday night WAC tilt we're foisting on you, because you know you should care. We care about Boise State at Louisiana Tech, anyway, and here's why (besides the fact that we're addicts):

Admit it: Ruston is growing on you. Both teams have already made a pair of Mid-week Madness appearances on national television this season -- the Broncos laid waste to Fresno State and survived a scare at Tulsa; the Bulldogs beat Hawaii and lost to Nevada, both in fairly convincing fashion. Tonight they meet in lovely Ruston, La., home of Louisiana Tech, Elephant 6 and very little else. Don't underestimate the somnambulant effects of the 1,948-mile trip from Boise, either.

Who will protect our precious BCS landscape? Their trajectories may be entirely divergent, but don't be fooled by Boise State's undefeated record and Louisiana Tech's three wins. A lot could change tonight. The Broncos have been difficult to peg despite their early season heroic versus Oregon -- there are a lot of convincing wins on their '09 record, but they do stumble every once in a while, as evidenced by that close call against the Golden Hurricane. You're not likely to catch them sleepwalking, however -- with that schedule, one slip is all it will take to cost them a BCS bid, and they have to know it. Their No. 7 spot in the BCS standings isn't going anywhere good without some showy victories (and some luck wouldn't hurt, either, but the victories come first).

Bulldogs make the best underdogs. The upset path will not be easy. Louisiana Tech's 16th-ranked turnover margin has been a program touchstone this year, but taking the ball away from the Broncos is even more difficult; they're fifth in turnover margin themselves. But there's a grand Bulldog tradition of giving better-equipped visitors headaches for four straight quarters: They beat Mississippi State in Ruston last year, and crushed Hawaii back in September, when the Warriors still had a quarterback for their prolific passing attack.

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At the beginning of November, three-quarters of the way into the season, our hard knowledge of Penn State as it heads into its season-making date with Ohio State Saturday amounts to the following set of observations against a very un-illuminating schedule:

• They can still play defense. The Lions lead the nation in scoring defense and rank in the top six in rushing, pass efficiency and total D, as well as sacks; they've given up a total of 26 points in the last four games, including a shutout against Minnesota. In PSU's only loss, the defense picked off Iowa's Ricky Stanzi twice and held the Hawkeye offense to 13 points, 10 of them coming on drives that began inside the Penn State 25 following turnovers in the fourth quarter.

• They prefer to spread the ball around. This is a pretty balanced offense -- 36 runs per game to 31 passes, and that includes plenty of garbage-time clock-killing -- and though tailback Evan Royster is carrying the bulk of the running game, four different receivers have hauled in at least 25 passes for 340-plus yards on the season. Derek Moye is the deep threat, but Chaz Powell, Graham Zug and Andrew Quarless (as well as Royster and Joe Suhey, who have 25 catches between them out of the backfield) have all been reliable targets.

• They're healthy. The defense has endured various injuries over the course of the season, notably to star linebackers Navorro Bowman and Sean Lee, but shouldn't be missing a single starter on either side of the ball Saturday.

For a top-15 team with serious BCS hopes and lingering (though very distant, thanks to unfriendly tiebreaker scenarios) designs on another Big Ten title, that's not very much, especially where the offense is concerned. That's what you get when your schedule to date includes one team that received votes in the latest polls, and you were held to 10 points by that team. As solid as the Lions have been offensively in every other game -- including their subsequent four Big Ten games, in which they're averaging 31 points on 453 yards -- their inability to score over the last three quarters against Iowa follows overhead like one of those tiny, personal storm clouds in the old Looney Tunes shorts as they come up against the only other defense on the schedule that measures up to the Hawkeyes'.

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