Thu Nov 05, 2009 10:58 am EST
The Doc Saturday crew peruses the weekly lines in search of a few shockers. (For entertainment purposes only, of course.)
• Doug Gillett: Oregon State (+7) over Cal.
Everybody seems to have assumed that Cal has righted the ship after those two ghastly losses to USC and Oregon, but what have the Golden Bears accomplished, really? Big win over a bad UCLA team, blowout over abysmal Washington State (in which they didn't cover the spread), last-minute win over Arizona State? Explosive as Jahvid Best is, he hasn't gotten it done against the better run defenses Cal has faced (69 total yards at Oregon, 52 in the loss to USC) and Oregon State's (third in the conference against the run, allowing only 108 yards per game) certainly qualifies. I think Beaver workhorse Jacquizz Rodgers will outpace his Cal counterpart on the ground and propel OSU to the win.
Also: Florida Atlantic (+6.5) over UAB, because I've seen UAB and, well, that's just what they do the week after an upset win; and Virginia (+13.5) over Miami, because we've all seen Al Groh and, well, the inexplicable, season-salvaging upset is just what he does, period.
• Holly Anderson: Indiana (+10.5) over Wisconsin.
The Hoosiers are 4-5 and the Badgers 6-2, but their positions could be so easily reversed it's laughable. Indiana, erstwhile Big Ten punching bag, has come out swinging this season, to almost no avail: The Hoosiers have endured achingly close losses at Michigan (36-33 with a late controversial call breaking against them) and Northwestern (where they watched a 28-3 lead turn into a 29-28 defeat in the closing seconds) on the books as well as last week's bizarro tilt at Iowa, also featuring some sketchy officiating.
Wisconsin has made a habit of winning the close ones, beating Northern Illinois and Michigan State by eight points each, edging Minnesota by a field goal and needing overtime to handle Fresno State in Madison. The Badgers have also lost convincingly to their only quality opponents thus far, by 21 points at Ohio State and 10 to Iowa. Though they outstrip the Hoosiers statistically by significant margins in the major offensive categories, the Badgers appear to be playing below their preseason potential while Indiana plays above theirs. Eventually, that's going to have to bear out on the scoreboard.
BONUS PICK! Washington (+4.5) over UCLA
Same story here. The Bruins and Huskies have identical 3-5 records and UCLA's somehow coming out as a favorite despite dropping five in a row in Pac-10 play after starting 3-0 outside of the conference. To date, the Bruins have beaten a 4-4 Mountain West team (San Diego State), an early Tennessee team still struggling to adjust to a wholesale coaching change, and Kansas State, which needs no introduction. Followed, again, by five straight conference losses.
Washington's had an Indiana kind of season, losing to LSU by eight, at Notre Dame in overtime, and at Arizona State on a last-second bomb, all respectable losses, and the latter two of which were downright bad luck. Oh, and you might have heard that the Huskies did manage to beat USC. The standings just don't tell the story -- the records are the same, but the timbre and trajectory of these teams could not be more different.
• Matt Hinton: Florida State (+8.5) over Clemson
FSU's defense pretty much guarantees a shootout -- excluding I-AA Jacksonville State, the 'Noles are allowing 33 points per game and have been ripped by very mediocre outfits from Boston College and North Carolina -- but quarterback Christian Ponder's presence in the lineup at this point pretty much assures that Florida State will be able to keep pace. Ponder is still the ACC's leader in yards per game, completion percentage and touchdown:interception ratio after what passed for a "down" game (26-of-40, 277 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) with bruised ribs in last Saturday's shootout win over N.C. State. The FSU running game showed up against the Wolpack (278 yards, 5 TDs on 8.4 per carry) for the second time in three weeks and put the 'Noles right back in the thick of the ACC Atlantic race by helping deal the division-leading Tigers the regularly scheduled November choke. The inexorable march toward a Boston College-Duke showdown in the ACC Championship practically commands it.
Dr. Saturday is a college football blog edited by Matt Hinton. Email him tips and feedback.

RivalsMinute: Clausen attacked by fan
Posted Nov 24 2009
Posted Nov 24 2009
Posted Nov 24 2009
Edited by MJD
Edited by 'Duk
Edited by J.E. Skeets
Edited by Greg Wyshynski
Edited by Matt Hinton
Edited by E. Brennan
Edited by Jay Busbee
Edited by Jay Busbee
Edited by Steve Cofield
Edited by Chris Chase
Edited by Chris Chase
Edited by Andy Behrens
10 Comments
1 - 10 of 10
Report Abuse
Report Abuse
Report Abuse
BTW, the non-upset of the week is Houston (+1.5) at Tulsa. Don't bet it, though, because CUSA's headquarters recently moved from Memphis to Vegas. From Cougar fans everywhere, thank you, oddsmakers. This game would scare us way more if the Coogs were favored realistically by 10+. *70-30*
Report Abuse
Paul Johnson is way too cussed to let Duke beat Georgia Tech. I think he'd strap a helmet on himself and go out there to run the offense if he had to.
Report Abuse
Report Abuse
Report Abuse
Also, wasn't there a post here about how unconvincing Ohio State's win over them was? My point is, their small margins of victory have actually been a reflection of *under*achievement.
Report Abuse
Of course all of this analysis probably equates to an Indiana beat down.
Report Abuse
Report Abuse
I highly doubt Matt thinks they /will/ beat GT. He (like me) just wants them too.
1 - 10 of 10