Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

The Doc Saturday crew peruses the weekly lines in search of a few shockers. (For entertainment purposes only, of course.)

  • Doug Gillett: Oregon State (+7) over Cal.
Everybody seems to have assumed that Cal has righted the ship after those two ghastly losses to USC and Oregon, but what have the Golden Bears accomplished, really? Big win over a bad UCLA team, blowout over abysmal Washington State (in which they didn't cover the spread), last-minute win over Arizona State? Explosive as Jahvid Best is, he hasn't gotten it done against the better run defenses Cal has faced (69 total yards at Oregon, 52 in the loss to USC) and Oregon State's (third in the conference against the run, allowing only 108 yards per game) certainly qualifies. I think Beaver workhorse Jacquizz Rodgers will outpace his Cal counterpart on the ground and propel OSU to the win.

Also: Florida Atlantic (+6.5) over UAB, because I've seen UAB and, well, that's just what they do the week after an upset win; and Virginia (+13.5) over Miami, because we've all seen Al Groh and, well, the inexplicable, season-salvaging upset is just what he does, period.

  • Holly Anderson: Indiana (+10.5) over Wisconsin.
The Hoosiers are 4-5 and the Badgers 6-2, but their positions could be so easily reversed it's laughable. Indiana, erstwhile Big Ten punching bag, has come out swinging this season, to almost no avail: The Hoosiers have endured achingly close losses at Michigan (36-33 with a late controversial call breaking against them) and Northwestern (where they watched a 28-3 lead turn into a 29-28 defeat in the closing seconds) on the books as well as last week's bizarro tilt at Iowa, also featuring some sketchy officiating.

Wisconsin has made a habit of winning the close ones, beating Northern Illinois and Michigan State by eight points each, edging Minnesota by a field goal and needing overtime to handle Fresno State in Madison. The Badgers have also lost convincingly to their only quality opponents thus far, by 21 points at Ohio State and 10 to Iowa. Though they outstrip the Hoosiers statistically by significant margins in the major offensive categories, the Badgers appear to be playing below their preseason potential while Indiana plays above theirs. Eventually, that's going to have to bear out on the scoreboard.

BONUS PICK! Washington (+4.5) over UCLA
Same story here. The Bruins and Huskies have identical 3-5 records and UCLA's somehow coming out as a favorite despite dropping five in a row in Pac-10 play after starting 3-0 outside of the conference. To date, the Bruins have beaten a 4-4 Mountain West team (San Diego State), an early Tennessee team still struggling to adjust to a wholesale coaching change, and Kansas State, which needs no introduction. Followed, again, by five straight conference losses.

Washington's had an Indiana kind of season, losing to LSU by eight, at Notre Dame in overtime, and at Arizona State on a last-second bomb, all respectable losses, and the latter two of which were downright bad luck. Oh, and you might have heard that the Huskies did manage to beat USC.  The standings just don't tell the story -- the records are the same, but the timbre and trajectory of these teams could not be more different.

Matt Hinton: Florida State (+8.5) over Clemson
FSU's defense pretty much guarantees a shootout -- excluding I-AA Jacksonville State, the 'Noles are allowing 33 points per game and have been ripped by very mediocre outfits from Boston College and North Carolina -- but quarterback Christian Ponder's presence in the lineup at this point pretty much assures that Florida State will be able to keep pace. Ponder is still the ACC's leader in yards per game, completion percentage and touchdown:interception ratio after what passed for a "down" game (26-of-40, 277 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) with bruised ribs in last Saturday's shootout win over N.C. State. The FSU running game showed up against the Wolpack (278 yards, 5 TDs on 8.4 per carry) for the second time in three weeks and put the 'Noles right back in the thick of the ACC Atlantic race by helping deal the division-leading Tigers the regularly scheduled November choke. The inexorable march toward a Boston College-Duke showdown in the ACC Championship practically commands it.

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10 Comments

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  1. dayton211
    1. Posted by dayton211 Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:29 am EST

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    who is this holly anderson, and why do you let a girl do a man's job. Wisconsin had no preseason expectations, and I would argue they are playing well above.
  2. freeloader2
    2. Posted by freeloader2 Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:43 am EST

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    I would argue that you are an idiot who likes Big-10 football. I would also argue that finishing 4-5 in the Big-10 is like winning the SWAC.
  3. Nate
    3. Posted by Nate Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:58 am EST

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    #1, do your knuckles hurt from the dragging?
    BTW, the non-upset of the week is Houston (+1.5) at Tulsa. Don't bet it, though, because CUSA's headquarters recently moved from Memphis to Vegas. From Cougar fans everywhere, thank you, oddsmakers. This game would scare us way more if the Coogs were favored realistically by 10+. *70-30*
  4. timjames99
    4. Posted by timjames99 Thu Nov 05, 2009 12:04 pm EST

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    Holly brings a lot of value with her 2 for 1 picks.
    Paul Johnson is way too cussed to let Duke beat Georgia Tech. I think he'd strap a helmet on himself and go out there to run the offense if he had to.
  5. Flea
    5. Posted by Flea Thu Nov 05, 2009 12:48 pm EST

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    Matt, do you honestly believe Duke is going to beat GT? Are you that entrenched in our SEC world that you've become completely blind? Seriously, how many more times do you have to be wrong about GT before you stop this nonsense? At this point, you are starting to sound like someone just trolling for a response. Congratulations sir, you got me.
  6. Rosevelt H
    6. Posted by Rosevelt H Thu Nov 05, 2009 12:58 pm EST

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    if a team goes 12-0 at end of season from a west coast conference..bcs won't even look at them because west coast schedules aren't as "good" as mid west or east coast???....pac10 never got respect it deserves unless your usc....oregon steamrolled over usc..but all i hear is texas this florida that like they are the only two teams that matter....oregon will probably win pac10 title and only get rose bowl...however if it was the "mighty"usc they would be right up there with texas and florida....ore st...this year isn't playing dominant as they were last year....but all the hype and ratings are favored on big ten, sec like they are only conferences????...these polls are a joke......
  7. benphubner
    7. Posted by benphubner Thu Nov 05, 2009 1:11 pm EST

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    Ooh, awkward. Hinton is probably wincing at that Wisconsin bit. They led Michigan State by 21 in the fourth quarter, Northern Illinois by 22 in the fourth, and Minnesota by 11, against whom they gave up a late TD to make it look close. And in the other two they allowed points due to football's equivalent of defensive indifference, on account of what they felt were safe leads, and people who don't follow them (not that I blame you) assumed they were winning "close games." They did steal the Fresno game, though - they had no right winning that one.
    Also, wasn't there a post here about how unconvincing Ohio State's win over them was? My point is, their small margins of victory have actually been a reflection of *under*achievement.
  8. ScottS
    8. Posted by ScottS Thu Nov 05, 2009 1:42 pm EST

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    #1 is on the money. Holly is usually on her game, but sh'es got this one wrong. Didn't Bucky just come off of mauling Purdue 37-0? This one is in Bloomington, but what this Hoosier team has shown us this year is the ability to look solid-to-good for 3 quarters before having their lunch money stolen. (Unless it was the UVA game - yowsa!). Fresno State is really the only game where Wisky was outplayed.
    Of course all of this analysis probably equates to an Indiana beat down.
  9. ScottS
    9. Posted by ScottS Thu Nov 05, 2009 1:42 pm EST

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    Ehh meant to say #7 is on the money.
  10. genius_man16
    10. Posted by genius_man16 Thu Nov 05, 2009 3:47 pm EST

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    #5 It's the ACC. You do remember that right? Anyone can beat anyone, especially in the ACC. Do I think that duke will win? No, but they have a shot, otherwise why play the game right?
    I highly doubt Matt thinks they /will/ beat GT. He (like me) just wants them too.

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