Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

From the beginning, Oregon's football renaissance over the last decade has always been about offense, and in a lot of ways, that's still the case: Past the midpoint of the season, the Ducks are second in the Pac-10 and in the top 20 nationally in both rushing and scoring, and have put up at least 42 points in three of the last four games, all against Pac-10 defenses. In place of infamously exiled LaGarrette Blount, running back LaMichael James has four 100-yard games in the last five and is rolling up almost seven yards per carry, with nine runs of at least 20 yards.

In general, though, this unit hasn't lived up to the hype, and hasn't come close to the attack that left a trail of destruction en route to a 6-1 finish over the second half of last season. That offense was frighteningly balanced: In addition to eight 300-yard rushing games, then-offensive coordinator Chip Kelly also coaxed big passing games from raw quarterback Jeremiah Masoli at the end of the year -- 298 yards through the air against Arizona, 309 at Oregon State, 258 against Oklahoma State -- to give the Ducks as much punch offensively as any team in the country. But other than one prolific afternoon at Cal, the passing game has been a mediocre threat at best -- the Ducks rank last in the conference in yards per game through the air, and might be in a completely different place in the season if not for defensive and special teams touchdowns providing the margins in tight wins over Purdue, Utah and UCLA.

But where the Ducks are in the season is right where they want to be: On a six-game winning streak, undefeated in conference play, on pace for its first BCS bid since 2001 and having apparently left the disastrous opening-night flop back in Boise heading into their second season-making date Saturday, against USC. And unlike Oregon's previous flirtations with the top 10 in 2001, 2005 and 2007, this defense is more carrying its own weight in relation to the offense:

It's not only the best Duck defense of the decade so far: It's been the best defense in pretty much every significant way (a few yards per game on the ground notwithstanding), most notably by allowing a full touchdown less per game on the scoreboard than any other Oregon D since 2001. The impetus for the turnaround has come from the perpetually scorched secondary, which leads the Pac-10 in both passing yards allowed and pass efficiency D and has held every opposing quarterback in check despite missing three-year starter Walter Thurmond at one cornerback for the last three games and his backup, fellow senior Willie Glasper, for the last two. Turns out you can afford to be a little banged up on the back end when you've generated 18 sacks in the last four games on the front end.

The big advantage this team has over its predecessors, of course, is that it hasn't faced USC, which completely torched the Ducks through the air last year in Los Angeles and is settling into a steady rhythm behind freshman quarterback Matt Barkley. Since leading the fourth-quarter comeback in SC's low-scoring win at Ohio State and sitting out the entirety of the stunning loss to Washington, Barkley has set his sights downfield, gunning for 283 yards at Cal and 380 at Notre Dame while averaging well over 16 yards per completion -- largely without the Trojans' top deep threat, Ronald Johnson, who returned from a broken collarbone for a big game in last week's win over Oregon State (six catches for 99 yards and a touchdown) and will be at full speed Saturday in Eugene.

USC's point totals have also steadily risen with each of Barkley's last five starts, as well from 18 at Ohio State to 27 against Washington State, 30 at Cal, 34 at Notre Dame and 42 against Oregon State. As it turns out, they've needed almost all of those points to win shootouts the last two weeks. For once, though, Oregon doesn't seem to be in a position to hit the throttle on offense and hope there's enough juice to keep pace; unless there's another gear that's been almost entirely absent through the first seven games, we know this offense isn't quite that high-powered. The defense, on the other hand, may be in position to match or even surpass the Trojans as the best D in the Pac-10 by locking down Barkley and Co. in one of the toughest environments it will face all year. If it doesn't, it's hard to see any other plausible route to the conference driver's seat.

digg delicious
more

15 Comments

Post a Comment
  1. GameDay
    1. Posted by GameDay Wed Oct 28, 2009 10:37 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    If USC loses, it's effectively 3 games behind Oregon, and the scenarios for them to win require a long series of miracles. If the Ducks lose, they'll still be in it - they will have to win out the rest of the season, of course, as will USC.
    It's hard not to see this as the de facto PAC 10 championship game, even with dangerous teams like Arizona, Oregon State remaining on the schedule.
    What this Oregon team seems to do better than any Duck team over the last several years is capitalize on their opportunities. And while they may not have been as "high-powered" as previous teams and simply ground out monster offensive yards so far this year, this team certainly has the potential to do so - they are fast, quick-striking and capable of going up and down all day long if needed. Kelly has been quite good about taking out his starters once it's clear that we're in garbage time and giving the second/third/ string playing time.
    One thing that's common to this Ducks team and every previous Ducks team, it seems, are the key injuries that seem to hit us every year. Can we go one year, one year, without our key players not getting struck down for one reason or another???
  2. brystr2
    2. Posted by brystr2 Wed Oct 28, 2009 11:40 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Well as a duck fan, in last years game Masoli was not clicking with the offense yet, 2 or 3 games later he put it together. He is further along this year, so hopefully our offense can get going. We have a lot more speed on the D side of the ball this year too.
  3. JS
    3. Posted by JS Thu Oct 29, 2009 11:35 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    So the Ducks defense is 'only' giving up 4.1 yds. per play. Check the math but doesn't that mean over 12 yards in 3 plays? Enough for a 1st down? Yeah! Go Ducks!
  4. steven m
    4. Posted by steven m Thu Oct 29, 2009 11:52 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    Hey, JS...I assure you that your respective team is giving up a higher yards per play average. 4.1 is extremely good in that regard
  5. Championship
    5. Posted by Championship Thu Oct 29, 2009 12:03 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    3. Posted by JS Thu Oct 29, 2009 11:35 am EDT Report Abuse
    So the Ducks defense is 'only' giving up 4.1 yds. per play. Check the math but doesn't that mean over 12 yards in 3 plays? Enough for a 1st down? Yeah! Go Ducks!
    Your an idiot
  6. Clam
    6. Posted by Clam Thu Oct 29, 2009 12:16 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Which Duck team will show up? The one that lost to BSU, struggled against Utah, lost to Cal in the rain last year or the Ducks that steamrolled Oklahoma State and Washington. With Dixon as the only threat at receiver, I foresee the Ducks struggling against USC and having a long, miserable day.
  7. jake z
    7. Posted by jake z Thu Oct 29, 2009 2:11 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    If Oregon wins ti will really show the BCS ranking system for what it is-- a system designed to stack the rankings with teams from the BCS 6 conferences.
    I am for a 16 team Playoff so I hope Oregon wins and is then ranked ahead of Boise, TCU and Cinncy in the BCS rankings.
    The BCS will be a real joke with Oregon winning out, an Iowa loss, Penn State looking like the average team they are and Alabama or Florida blowing the otgher out in the SEC Championship game.
    The BCS Championship game will be right (Texas vs. FL or Bama). But the rest of the BCS games will show how the BCS group will ignore the rankigns. (do you really think BCS would put Boise, TCU and Cinncy all ahead of 2 loss BCS teams??)
  8. Michael Brown
    8. Posted by Michael Brown Thu Oct 29, 2009 2:23 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Here is what I want:
    Iowa loses
    Cincy loses
    USC loses to Oregon
    Florida or Alabama drop one but still make it to the SEC championship...then the 1-loss team beats the other in the SEC game
    Texas gets beat in the big 12 championship game
    TCU and Boise win out
    Shuffled polls from late losses result in a BCS championship between #1 TCU and #2 Boise State
    Not that I think it will happen, but it would be so SWEET to see the BCS 6 locked out of their own mythical championship
  9. Brian Baughman
    9. Posted by Brian Baughman Thu Oct 29, 2009 3:20 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Last year we(boise state) lost a close matchup to tcu in san deigo. I'm happy that folks are seeing what a strong team tcu is. they don't get a lot of respect but their defense was intense. Teams such as notre dame have all kinds of love and they would lose by 28 pts to tcu.
  10. Amber
    10. Posted by Amber Thu Oct 29, 2009 4:49 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    If history has shown us anything is that the Trojans always play very good when playing ranked teams. One main reason why The Trojans keep winning is because of Coach Pete Carroll. I am sure Coach Carroll will have the Trojans firing on all cylinders come Sat night. I also believe the environment wont phase QB Barkley & the Trojans. They have already played at Ohio St. Cal & ND I am confident to say USC by 17 points
  11. Kelly
    11. Posted by Kelly Thu Oct 29, 2009 6:44 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Go ducks !!!! go ducks!!!!
    i can't wait to see usc and pete carroll go down in eugene!! amber you don't know what your talking about when it comes to playing at autzen stadium, the loudest , in college football!
    gooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo ducks!!!!!!!!
  12. Joe Torre
    12. Posted by Joe Torre Thu Oct 29, 2009 7:06 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    I don't think that the Ducks are going to be able to overturn the 44-10 drubbing they took last year from USC, regardless of their Autzen advantage and the fact that it's scheduled for pouring rain during the entire game. The difference between the talent levels of each team has not changed much at all. The Trojans won't be intimidated by the noise or the craziness or the moisture. They continuously and regularly go into hostile environments and do not let those things (Va.Tech in DC,Auburn, ND, Ark, Neb, Ohio St, etc) bother them. The score should be low, probably USC @24 Ducks @17. The biggest unknown in this matchup will be if those horriffic Pac 10 Zebras do not destroy the game, with incessant personal foul calls, especially since the commissioner is now suspending refs for missed and poor calls.
    Boise or TCU don't have the strength of sched to make it to the NC game. Texas wont be challenged in the Big 12 Champ game, we'll have to hope they lose one before that.
  13. jdejtorres@...
    13. Posted by jdejtorres@... Thu Oct 29, 2009 9:59 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    God is a Trojan! Here in Southern California, the center of the universe, we totally diregard the East Coast-biased rankings and move on with our great weather, hot chicks and very happy, albeit superficial, lives. FIGHT ON!
  14. Stacy
    14. Posted by Stacy Fri Oct 30, 2009 1:43 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    Barkely and the whole USC Trojan team is ready for the ducks!!!! Nothing phases them! Remember Carson Palmer won his Heisman because of the performance he put on at Autzen Stadium!!! It's gonna get ugly, go get 'em Trojans!!! FIGHT ON!!! USC TROJANS!!!
  15. Kelly
    15. Posted by Kelly Fri Oct 30, 2009 6:12 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    I am a Duck fan in so cal and am getting sick of the usc trojans and pete carroll! I am so ready to watch sat. when the Uof O Ducks can put them where they belong, back in so cal with adefeat!

Dr. Saturday

Add to My Yahoo! RSS

Matt Hinton

Dr. Saturday is a college football blog edited by Matt Hinton. Email him tips and feedback.

Related Photo Gallery

Featured NCAAF Video

Y! Sports Blogs

Dr. Saturday Recent Readers