Ball Don't Lie - NBA

Once again back is the incredible ... Ball Don't Lie's NBA previews, outlining offseason moves, projecting win totals, spinning tracks and much, much more. It's a fun, hot mess. This morning, the Detroit Pistons.

2008-09 Record: 39-43, third place in Central Division
Head Coach/Facial Hair: John Kruester/None
Key Additions: Ben Gordon(notes), Charlie Villanueva(notes), Ben Wallace(notes), Chris Wilcox(notes), Austin Daye(notes), Jonas Jerebko(notes)
Key Losses: Rasheed Wallace(notes), Allen Iverson(notes), Amir Johnson(notes), Antonio McDyess(notes), Aaron Afflalo, Walter Herrmann(notes)

There is not a lot to like about this team. I don't like being dour so soon after a pretty significant makeover, but unless quite a few things click above expectation, the Pistons are going to be fighting for a lower-rung playoff spot with several Eastern Conference opponents.

That said, I think there will be a lot to enjoy about this team. Cold comfort for Pistons fans, but for the other 96.7 percent out there, this will be a fun team to watch. John Kuester will have the Pistons running a sound offense, you'd like to think Rip Hamilton and Rodney Stuckey(notes) will perk it up on that end after a tough 2008-09, and the new additions (Ben Gordon, Chris Wilcox, Charlie Villanueva) tend to think offense ... always.

The tough stuff, first. I like a lot of these players, but for a team that is capped-out and will be capped-out next season, damn, this rotation looks awfully thin.

Will Bynum's(notes) the backup point man, and I think he might be one of the league's most underrated guards. Stuckey will get better. Gordon is still a waste as a sixth man; he has his faults, but he's good enough to start. I've been smitten with Austin Daye's game, for whatever reason, for a while. Longtime readers will know that I tend to hype Chris Wilcox more than I should. Tay Prince? Sound player. Rip Hamilton? Can still score. CV? Unfairly maligned and starter quality. Jason Maxiell(notes)? Eats babies. Admire all these guys.

But that's the team. There's no killer here. No overwhelming star meant to push things over the edge. No standout in any area, save for solid perimeter scoring.

And I'm just having a hard time getting behind an NBA team that is just about capped out, featuring this little. Unless the team as a whole is overwhelmingly proficient in either offense or defense.

The Pistons aren't that way defensively. We know that. And as good as the shooters are, as much as the young backcourt can improve, and as sound as Kuester's methods have proven to have been as an assistant over the years, I just don't see them as a top-five knockout offensively.

By now, Pistons fans will want me to mention Ben Wallace and Jonas Jerebko and, while they're both nice players this late/early in their careers, it just isn't happening this year. Unless Kuester can whip up some magic offense that really does take this (potentially potent, I must say) blend of slashers, scorers and shooters and create a killer offensive outfit, I just see the Pistons as being good enough to compete, not strong enough to contend.

Prediction: 40-42

Kelly Dwyer

Will Joe Dumars' tinkering put the Pistons back among the East elite?

No. No way. But Dumars isn't done tinkering. Even with Rip Hamilton's contract, the new free-agent signings and Dumars' penchant to keep Tayshaun Prince(notes), the Pistons could have a small chunk of salary-cap space for the 2010 summer. Rookie contracts and a shrinking cap could hurt, but if Dumars can move Hamilton for an expiring deal, the Pistons could add another big piece.

— KD, Yahoo! Sports 2009-10 NBA Preview magazine

Motown String Music: "What should the starting lineup be? My gut reaction is Stuckey, Hamilton, Prince, Villanueva and Brown. Kuester has indicated recently that Ben Wallace could start instead of Villanueva. I wouldn't mind that flip-flop because it would have the Pistons starting the game with arguably their best defensive players on the floor, setting the tone, and then it makes the bench appear that much deeper. Unlike last year, the Pistons don't have any inflated egos to cater to, so I don't see any big problems arising from Kuester getting creative with his rotations. Assuming he gives Gordon and Villanueva ample time to get their scoring opportunities in, it doesn't really matter if that happens with them coming off the pine or not." [more]

Need4Sheed: "The most glaring and obvious weakness for Detroit is the 'D.' Always known for defense first, the Pistons now have an offensive-minded squad and a lack of established big men. The Pistons new addition down low, Charlie Villanueva, has a reputation to be allergic to rebounds and has been called 'soft.' Look for Jason Maxiell, Wilcox and Kwame Brown(notes) to do most of the dirty work for the Pistons this season." [more]

Empty The Bench: "Let's be honest: few teams that experience roster turnover of this magnitude meet with success on the first try. It takes time to get to know your teammates: where they want the ball, how well they play defense, how to compensate for their shortcomings, what they're like in the locker room, in which situations they can and can't be counted on. Throw in a healthy batch of rookies and another inexperienced head coach into the mix, and it all adds up to a team that's going to suffer through frustrating bouts of inconsistency and struggle to beat the NBA's elite. The Pistons we've all come to know over the past decade were mostly defined by their defense; this version has no identity... yet. On a team with its fair share of question marks, that lack of a true identity is their most significant weakness. Don't underestimate just how crucial having one -- or not having one -- can be at this level." [more]

Kings of Leon, "Use Somebody (Remix)"

If you had told me five years ago, when I saw them open for the Strokes, that the Kings of Leon would some day have a dance remix that gets played on Top 40 radio stations nationwide, I would have said, "I'll believe that when the Detroit Pistons spend $85 million, in one summer, on two players who care a lot more about scoring than playing defense. Oh, and one of them won't be able to grow hair on his body because he suffers from a condition that affects 0.01% of humans."

Welcome to the future.

— Trey Kerby, The Blowtorch

Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva were the headline signings for this new version of the Pistons, so this team will want to play some offense. But how much will Gordon's production suffer as a reserve, following 76 starts and 37 minutes per game last season? He's certainly had success as a sixth man in previous seasons, but his fifth-round asking price isn't leaving much room for downside. Charlie V is looking at starters' minutes from the outset for the Pistons, and his career per-36 minute averages include 18 points, nine boards, 1.2 threes, and 1.6 steals-plus-blocks. He's no secret, though, consistently going in the sixth round of drafts.

Richard Hamilton(notes) and Tayshaun Prince are the last remnants of the Pistons' old guard. Both are middling fantasy options at this point of their careers and offer no upside in the late rounds, and upside is typically what you should be looking for at that stage of the draft. Rodney Stuckey is a bit of a wild card for fantasy owners — despite a disappointing season overall, he did show some improvement from his rookie season and he's looking to make some new memories (along with the rest of the franchise). He'll get a push from Will Bynum if he doesn't start strong, but there's little risk in a late pick (125 ADP). It's doubtful that any of the others in the mix for backcourt minutes (Kwame Brown, Ben Wallace, Chris Wilcox) play well and/or consistently enough to warrant fantasy consideration.

— Matt Buser, Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Basketball / BuserSports.com

Sign up now for Fantasy Basketball '09.

michael_bay: BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!!!!! #PistonsPregame
11:26 AM Oct 9th from Tweetie

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Atlantic Divison: Celtics | Nets | Knicks | 76ers | Raptors
Southwest Division: Mavericks | Rockets | Grizzlies | Hornets | Spurs
Central Division: Bulls | Cavaliers

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68 Comments

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  1. C
    1. Posted by C Fri Oct 16, 2009 11:10 am EDT

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    7th or 8th seed. they'll be better than Chicago
  2. Vittorio De Zen
    2. Posted by Vittorio De Zen Fri Oct 16, 2009 11:20 am EDT

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    Will Bynum is my favourite Piston. Love that mix. Can't argue with the 40 wins, either, although I think they DO have the potential to be a top-5 offensive club. Potential, not saying they will.
  3. NormD
    3. Posted by NormD Fri Oct 16, 2009 11:33 am EDT

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    Why do you call them "key" additions and losses? Walter Herrmann was a key loss? Jerebko was a key addition?
  4. NormD
    4. Posted by NormD Fri Oct 16, 2009 11:35 am EDT

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    "There is not a lot to like about this team."
    "I think there will be a lot to enjoy about this team."
    Um, a bit of a contradiction, wouldn't you say?
  5. J-Vas
    5. Posted by J-Vas Fri Oct 16, 2009 12:02 pm EDT

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    Stuckey can take over a game and will defintely be the difference. He put up 40, 38 and 30 last season and I see him developing more consistency.
  6. Myk S
    6. Posted by Myk S Fri Oct 16, 2009 12:11 pm EDT

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    "The tough stuff, first. I like a lot of these players, but for a team that is capped-out, and will be capped-out next season; damn, this rotation looks awfully thin."
    The Pistons have $9.2 million in expiring contracts going into next season.
  7. Myk S
    7. Posted by Myk S Fri Oct 16, 2009 12:12 pm EDT

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    "The tough stuff, first. I like a lot of these players, but for a team that is capped-out, and will be capped-out next season; damn, this rotation looks awfully thin."
    The Pistons have $9.2 million in expiring contracts going into next season.
  8. Hazen
    8. Posted by Hazen Fri Oct 16, 2009 12:21 pm EDT

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    come on skeets...one game better than last years greatest underachievers ever??????......no way...coach q will win coach of the year with 46-36 overall record..do ya really think rip will be playing as a piston at the all star break???????? let alone the 4th game(wink wink)...go blue red and white!!!!!!!!!!!!!! go pistons...oh yeah...wil bynum should be starting at the point......best backcourt in the league.....
  9. Vittorio De Zen
    9. Posted by Vittorio De Zen Fri Oct 16, 2009 12:28 pm EDT

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    Hazen S - How old are you?
  10. fishonmyplane
    10. Posted by fishonmyplane Fri Oct 16, 2009 12:34 pm EDT

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    This team could win 50 games. I predict a 4th seed for Mo-Town, trailing only Boston, Cleveland, and Orlando. Some of the criticisms made no sense - just look at all the quality players that KD listed... and then he says they're not a deep team??? This is one of the deeper teams in the league. I also think they will be pretty good defensively, mainly because of Prince, Wallace, Brown, Maxiell. It's true that Charlie V and Wilcox aren't the best defenders, but I think the other guys will more than compensate for their deficiencies. Hopefully the coach will be smart enough not to put those 2 guys on the court at the same time. Anyway, I predict they will be at least an average defensive team, with potentially a very explosive offense, and lots of depth. 50-32 is my hopeful prediction.
  11. fishonmyplane
    11. Posted by fishonmyplane Fri Oct 16, 2009 12:35 pm EDT

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    This team could win 50 games. I predict a 4th seed for Mo-Town, trailing only Boston, Cleveland, and Orlando. Some of the criticisms made no sense - just look at all the quality players that KD listed... and then he says theyre not a deep team??? This is one of the deeper teams in the league. I also think they will be pretty good defensively, mainly because of Prince, Wallace, Brown, Maxiell. Its true that Charlie V and Wilcox arent the best defenders, but I think the other guys will more than compensate for their deficiencies. Hopefully the coach will be smart enough not to put those 2 guys on the court at the same time. Anyway, I predict they will be at least an average defensive team, with potentially a very explosive offense, and lots of depth. 50-32 is my hopeful prediction.
  12. fishonmyplane
    12. Posted by fishonmyplane Fri Oct 16, 2009 12:36 pm EDT

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    This team could win 50 games. I predict a 4th seed for Mo-Town, trailing only Boston, Cleveland, and Orlando. Some of the criticisms made no sense - just look at all the quality players that KD listed... and then he says theyre not a deep team??? This is one of the deeper teams in the league. I also think they will be pretty good defensively, mainly because of Prince, Wallace, Brown, Maxiell. Its true that Charlie V and Wilcox arent the best defenders, but I think the other guys will more than compensate for their deficiencies. Hopefully the coach will be smart enough not to put those 2 guys on the court at the same time.
  13. fishonmyplane
    13. Posted by fishonmyplane Fri Oct 16, 2009 12:40 pm EDT

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    And KD mentions that they don't have any superstars on the roster. Well, that was also true when they won their title, and remained a legit contender for a looooong time. So they might not need one. Besides, what do you want Dumars to do? You can NEVER get an MVP-caliber talent as a free agent (Wade, Lebron, CP3, etc). And a guy like Carlos Boozer is NOT going to carry a team to the finals. So I think Dumars has done an excellent job of re-building this team, without having to blow it up.
    Sorry about the multiple posts, the site kept screwing up.
  14. Travis
    14. Posted by Travis Fri Oct 16, 2009 1:38 pm EDT

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    Yeah, I, too, think this team might be deeper than KD is giving them credit for, but do Ben Wallace and Daye count as depth? Meh, I don't know about that. If everything goes really well for this team, they could be the 4 seed, but that would mean a ridiculously quick chemistry emerges on the defensive end, where we know CV and Gordon are not the strongest.
  15. SCSF- LA where repeats and 3-peats happen!
    15. Posted by SCSF- LA where repeats and 3-peats happen! Fri Oct 16, 2009 2:30 pm EDT

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    w/ a healthy Elton Brand watch out for the 76ers.......
  16. SCSF- LA where repeats and 3-peats happen!
    16. Posted by SCSF- LA where repeats and 3-peats happen! Fri Oct 16, 2009 2:33 pm EDT

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    Last years final NBA standings
    Gold - Lakers
    Silver - Rockets took the Lakes to 7 games w/o Yao
    Bronze - Magic ECC get the nod but only mustered 5 games w/ the Lakes
    4th - Denver took the Lakes to 6 games
    5th - Celtics took the Magic to 7 games w/o KG
    The Cavs w/ the MVP / COY / HM Court Adv / best record / 40-2 HM Record - Couldn't even crack the top 5 teams last season and now it's Championship or Bust.......
    Sorry but "The Choken 1" is in for a huge let down again. This team doesn't make it back to the ECF
  17. Dominic L
    17. Posted by Dominic L Fri Oct 16, 2009 2:38 pm EDT

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    I think they'll struggle with the changes at first but I'm hoping that they can create chemistry as the season goes on. I'm hoping for a great season but I'm not getting my hopes too high. These guys have to get used to playing with each other and they have a new coach. They have a lot of quality players though so I think they have the potential to compete IF and only IF they can create good team chemistry like they did in 2004 and on.
  18. James Deaner
    18. Posted by James Deaner Fri Oct 16, 2009 2:49 pm EDT

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    So only 3.3% of basketball fans like the Pistons? I guess that makes their long streak of sell-outs that ended last year a bit of a mystery, maybe those people were just showing up hoping for another fight.
    And for the record, where was our star before this? Nobody wanted Billups, he became an All-Star in Detroit. Nobody wanted Sheed, we got him for less than what the Lakers got Gasol. Hamilton was a bust in D.C., then he was our leading scorer for 6 years. I don't really see a K.G., Kobe or Lebron in those names so..... your theory that this team lacks a star is pretty irrelevant to the 3.3% of us that watch Pistons basketball.
  19. jeremie m
    19. Posted by jeremie m Fri Oct 16, 2009 4:55 pm EDT

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    I'd like to know what drugs your on saying that AI was a key loss. Really does anybody in the pistons organization or any of the fans give a damn that he's gone? he made no difference in the pistons game last year in fact he was more of a waste of space than anything
  20. rightsaidfred
    20. Posted by rightsaidfred Fri Oct 16, 2009 4:56 pm EDT

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    Unfortunately, there will be no teams with less than a .500 winning percentage in the Eastern Conference playoffs this year. That pretty much eliminates the Pistons right there. Trade Rip and Tayshaun to Denver and rebuild the whole team from scratch, like they did in 2002-2003. That is the only way to roll. The people of Detroit deserve a winning team.
  21. James
    21. Posted by James Fri Oct 16, 2009 5:23 pm EDT

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    A group of guys that have had pretty solid careers, none of them superstars, a penchent for a one sided game, every columnist this side of the atlantic ocean counting them out, another team in the central division people believe might have a chance to beat the star studded lakers. That was the 03-04 season. hopefully history repeats itself.
  22. Erik G
    22. Posted by Erik G Fri Oct 16, 2009 5:31 pm EDT

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    They listed allen iverson , amir johnson, aaron afflalo, walter herrmann as a key loses. they must be joking.... rip is done in motown send him to the golden state for caption jack, he should do good with joe dumars in the front office. dumars was able to tame wallace....... it would give them one of the biggest duo of guards in the league with stuckey and jackson? wow. monta, rip and stephen curry....wow. go warriors!
  23. The great and powerful swami
    23. Posted by The great and powerful swami Fri Oct 16, 2009 5:35 pm EDT

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    25 games behind Cleveland in the central division
  24. Erik G
    24. Posted by Erik G Fri Oct 16, 2009 5:36 pm EDT

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    Damn this dude went undrafted? that cross-over on k.g. was just sick, so nasty. stuckey's gonna take rips job. and bynum will be starting by the break.
  25. Erik G
    25. Posted by Erik G Fri Oct 16, 2009 5:39 pm EDT

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    i still believe in KWAME BROWN..... for some strange reason i still think him and darko can resurrect their careers, and be decent big men in this league not all-stars but good role players.

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