Who Will Win?
Johnson
Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie Johnson and the 48 team have shown great resilience during their march to three consecutive titles. After finishing ninth a week ago in Kansas, and losing eight points to Chase leader Mark Martin, I expect Johnson to rebound with authority in California. Johnson was the winner of the last two fall Fontana races, although this one is later in the year, but the results stay the same. – Ricky Craven
• No more risk-taking here; I've taken some hits for picking some drivers on less-than-stellar runs. So this week, I'm going straight down the middle, picking Jimmie Johnson. I could throw out a bunch of stats as to why he's got a great shot at California, but it boils down to this: it's the Chase, and it's Johnson. Pick him every week in the fall and nobody will laugh at you. – Jay Busbee
Jeff Gordon: Jeff Gordon and Co. knew that to beat Jimmie Johnson in the Chase, they had to improve their intermediate track program. And that's exactly what they've done. Earlier this year Gordon won at Texas, at the time one of only two tracks on the schedule where he hadn't won. In 19 intermediate-track races this season, Gordon has 10 top fives and 15 top 10s. He needs a win this weekend to get back in the Chase hunt, and he'll get it. – Jay Hart
Three Chase drivers who need to complete a Hail Mary in California, by Ricky Craven
Craven
1. Brian Vickers … made a late-season charge to fight off Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth for the final Chase spot. But since then, little good has happened. California may be the equivalent of the 10 count in boxing. For if they leave California without making up any ground, the Chase for them is probably over. But because this is the sister track to Michigan, the site of Vickers' only win in 2009, this group can pull themselves off the canvas and reverse their downward spiral.
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2. Kasey Kahne … has had as much potential off-track distraction as any driver in the Chase. Kahne's team announced prior to the Chase their desire to merge with Yates Racing and thus a transition to Ford, which would potentially eliminate several current team engine employees. Kahne then suffered an expired engine in the Chase opener the very next race. Since then the team has reverted back to an earlier generation engine with arguably less power, but potentially greater reliability.
In spite of all this, Kahne (who I consider the most underrated driver in the sport) has overachieved, running well at Dover and following with a solid sixth-place finish at Kansas. Kahne performs very well on tracks like California, where drivers need to transition to the higher lane as tires wear and the track loses grip. If track conditions show high temperatures, watch for Kahne to pull the upset.
3. Carl Edwards … was the preseason pick by many to thwart Jimmie Johnson's quest for a fourth straight title. Twenty-nine races into the year and Edwards is still winless. And now he's racing with a fractured right foot.
Still, it would be a mistake to dismiss Edwards, particularly at this discipline of track where Roush Fenway Racing has been so successful in the past. Consecutive strong runs by teammates Matt Kenseth at Dover and Greg Biffle at Kansas have offered some hope to salvage the year. If Edwards can capitalize on the set-up Biffle used last week to challenge for the win, then this may be the race where he finally lives up to the preseason hype.
Top storyline
Gordon
• Can California Speedway deliver the attendance necessary to justify it being added to the 10-race Chase? Ever since California inherited Darlington's historical Southern 500 date it has received its share of criticism for not living up to ticket sale expectations. A swap with Atlanta appeared very rewarding for the Georgia track this past Labor Day, but will the 2-mile Fontana track get equal results this weekend? – Ricky Craven
• Is this the end of the line for Jeff Gordon? It's called a Chase for a reason – if you want to catch the leader, you've got to run him down. Otherwise, it'd be called a Parade. (No Fontana jokes, please.) What this means is that the cars behind Jimmie Johnson and Mark Martin don't have to race as well as the 48 and the 5; they have to race better, by an ever-increasing margin. And the big name this weekend on the proverbial hot seat is Jeff Gordon. Without a huge move – a win plus a poor finish on the part of his Hendrick teammates – Gordon will almost surely have too high of a mountain to climb and too many people between him and the summit. Last week's second-place finish was a good start, not a goal. It only gets tougher from here on the 24. – Jay Busbee
• Will all 12 Chase drivers avoid a points hit? Auto Club Speedway is a fair track, meaning drivers are unlikely to have their day ruined by getting caught up in someone else's mess. Case in point, 10 of the 12 Chase qualifiers finished in the top 12 at Auto Club Speedway back in February. One of those who didn't was Mark Martin, who suffered a blown engine and finished 40th. Stay clean on Sunday and the points won't change much. But if anyone has trouble under the hood or on pit road, they will leave much, much worse than when they arrived. – Jay Hart
From The Source
Carl Edwards: "The whole team was fast at Kansas and if we can apply some of what we learned there, we're going to go to California and be aggressive. It couldn't come at a better time."