Storylines: The clinch situation

AVONDALE, Ariz. – NASCAR won’t officially crown Jimmie Johnson the 2009 Sprint Cup champion unless he holds a 196-point lead following Sunday’s race at Phoenix International Raceway. But that doesn’t mean Johnson can’t “clinch” without being handed the trophy.

As long as Johnson starts next weekend’s finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway, he can clinch his fourth straight title by leaving Phoenix leading Mark Martin by 162 points, Jeff Gordon by 161.

Is this likely to happen?

Considering Johnson needs to gain 89 points on Martin and 49 on Gordon, probably not. All three drivers have very good records at PIR. Each has won there, though Johnson does hold the edge with three wins to Martin’s two and Gordon’s one.

“I feel that a 73-point lead is a very, very healthy lead,” Johnson said. “With today’s racing, the competition, the year that Mark Martin and Jeff have had in the Chase, I feel very good about our points lead.

“But it’s hard to look back at the week before at 184 [points], the comfort that that brought,” he continued, addressing the accident in last Sunday’s race at Texas which shaved 111 points off his lead. “You know, it’s like, ‘Wow, we could have left here with a 184-point lead.’ Different story. Homestead would have been a very enjoyable experience. That possibility still exists. I mean, the 5 (Martin) could have trouble this week; you never know. This is racing. Anything and everything will happen.”

Here are five other storylines to watch for in Sunday’s Checker O’Reilly Auto Parts 500:

1. Can Hendrick Motorsports be stopped at PIR?

Not since Kevin Harvick in November 2006 has anyone other than a Hendrick driver won at PIR. Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Mark Martin have won the past five races there – a string that includes three straight victories for Johnson.

“Hendrick’s good everywhere,” Gordon said. “I feel like our stuff’s good everywhere we go. I don’t really isolate to this.”

Gordon’s right – Hendrick is good everywhere. But the organization has been particularly consistent at Phoenix, where Hendrick has placed at least two drivers in the top 10 in each of the past 11 races.

In Saturday’s final practice, Johnson topped the speed chart. Martin was second.

2. Is Kyle Busch back?

Busch is worth watching these final two races, if only to figure out how legit a contender he will be in 2010. Last weekend at Texas, his first race with new crew chief Dave Rogers, Busch said he already felt more comfortable in the car than he did in the ones prepared by ousted crew chief Steve Addington.

Though he didn’t win the race, Busch did lead 232 of 334 laps before running out of fuel (while leading) with two laps to go.

“Our Cup program has struggled a little bit but, unfortunately, sometimes that happens, and Joe and J.D. [Gibbs] ended up making a change with Dave,” Busch said. “Now the Nationwide deal is close to being done with” – Busch can clinch the Nationwide title this weekend – “and we can go back to focusing more on the Cup effort and try to get ourselves to championship-caliber on that side. Somebody has to beat that 48 [Jimmie Johnson].”

3. Will Kurt Busch go back to back?

It was easy to write off Busch when, just prior to the Chase, it was announced that crew chief Pat Tryson would be moving on at the end of the season. With a lame duck atop Busch’s pit box, expectations were that the team would crumble in the final 10 races.

That hasn’t been the case. In fact, Busch has thrived. His win last Sunday in Texas moved him up to fourth in the standings, 171 points back of Johnson. If not for a late wreck at Talladega, Busch would be smack dab in the middle of the title hunt.

“The way that Pat and I mutually feel with each other is it’s the same as if we were still together, even after these next two races,” Busch said Friday. “We didn’t want [the split] to be a distraction with the crew chief leaving the team at the end of the year – and that’s all that’s been written about.

“So in the end, you can say it’s that. But we’re just out here doing our job, working as hard as we can. I still go back and kick myself a little bit for Talladega, with how we finished there.”

Busch will start second in Sunday’s race.

4. Will Dale Earnhardt Jr. actually be a factor?

Junior was third fastest in the final practice session. It’s not much, but in a season where almost nothing has gone right, Earnhardt will take it.

He has had some success at Phoenix. He’s won there twice and has finished in the top 10 there in two of the past three races.

Earnhardt will start 18th on Sunday.

5. What if Johnson clinches the title?

The Sprint Cup (which is not a cup, but rather a trophy featuring two checkered flags) is in Avondale (the town where Phoenix International Raceway is located) and would be presented to Johnson following the race. However, NASCAR will wait until after the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway to make the formal presentation.