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From the Marbles - NASCAR

From the Marbles

Thu Nov 05, 2009 9:32 am EST

How Jimmie Johnson could still lose the Sprint Cup

By Jay Busbee

Everybody's going ahead and giving Jimmie Johnson his fourth Sprint Cup championship, but hold on! We've still got races to run! What's that you say? You say there's no way anybody's catching Jimmie? Balderdash, we say!

Mathematically, it's still possible -- phenomenally unlikely, but still possible -- that someone could catch Jimmie. Using this breakdown of NASCAR's points system, let's take a look at the ways things could go south for the 48 car. His closest pursuers are Mark Martin (184 points back), Jeff Gordon (192 points back) and Juan Pablo Montoya (239 points back). Let's break down their chances, shall we?

If Jimmie averages a top-10 finish over the last three races, it's over. No way anyone can catch him. So let's go down the line:

If Jimmie averages an 11th-place finish:
-Mark Martin has to win all three races and lead the most laps.
-Jeff Gordon and Juan Pablo Montoya have no chance.

If Jimmie averages a 15th-place finish:
-Mark Martin has to average a second-place finish.
-Jeff Gordon has to win all three races and lead the most laps.
-Juan Pablo Montoya has no chance.

If Jimmie averages a 20th-place finish:
-Mark Martin has to average a 3rd-place finish.
-Jeff Gordon has to average a 2nd-place finish.
-Juan Pablo Montoya has to win all three races, but doesn't have to lead the most laps.

See? Easy, right? There's still a mathematical chance! Come on, stick around! It'll be fun! Please? Please ... ?

Related: Jimmie Johnson, Mark Martin, Jeff Gordon, Juan Pablo Montoya

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129 Comments

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  1. Willy Doer
    1. Posted by Willy Doer Thu Nov 05, 2009 10:02 am EST

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    Jay, you are dangling the carrot in front of people who don't like carrots.
  2. Rudy88
    2. Posted by Rudy88 Thu Nov 05, 2009 10:06 am EST

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    Fat chance, but possible!
  3. Tigger
    3. Posted by Tigger Thu Nov 05, 2009 10:12 am EST

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    Until he's 190 up on anyone going into homestead, there's still a chance. dangnabit. I want to see Jimmie get number 4 :-)
  4. Dan
    4. Posted by Dan Thu Nov 05, 2009 10:18 am EST

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    But what happens if Jimmie decides to just stay home for all three?
  5. MarkN
    5. Posted by MarkN Thu Nov 05, 2009 10:20 am EST

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    But what if JPM takes out Jeff, Mark and Jimmy every race?
  6. miss priss
    6. Posted by miss priss Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:02 am EST

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    It's his to loose.
  7. art_tidesco
    7. Posted by art_tidesco Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:03 am EST

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    Go John Taco Points Montana ! :-)
  8. rebeccadraine@...
    8. Posted by rebeccadraine@... Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:05 am EST

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    What a joke NASCAR has become. Do a breakdown of how many championships Jimmie would have won under the old system or how many Dale would have won under the current one. It is just downright boring to watch the same guy win year after year.
  9. Rudy88
    9. Posted by Rudy88 Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:10 am EST

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    rebeccadraine@... It's only boring if he's not the driver you're rooting for. The history that he might make, is definitely exciting!
  10. Dani
    10. Posted by Dani Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:16 am EST

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    Very funny Jay... Love the IF game. I will be glued to the TV for the next 3 races.
    MarkN... It could happen, wow.
  11. mels80
    11. Posted by mels80 Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:25 am EST

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    Watching history be made...I'll admit it's very exciting. The fact that it's Jimmie Johnson...well, it had to be someone. Still don't like the guy.
  12. Nixiechick
    12. Posted by Nixiechick Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:41 am EST

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    I want him to win just to set a new record of 4 in a row and then that's enough, I don't need to see him win a 5th in a row.
  13. Willy Doer
    13. Posted by Willy Doer Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:54 am EST

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    I think it might be history from "the chase" era......but i don't look at it as being comparable to the modern era cups. But i don't look at pettys 7 cups as being comparable to Earnhardts. Completely different set of rules to play by. Apples to oranges.
  14. packerd_00
    14. Posted by packerd_00 Thu Nov 05, 2009 12:01 pm EST

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    At this point unless Jimmie gets kindapped by crazed Martin fans hell be winning another title,Jimmie hasnt messed up in the past why would he know.
  15. NostraChronus
    15. Posted by NostraChronus Thu Nov 05, 2009 12:41 pm EST

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    I just don't see at this point how the dude isn't going to win five in a row; his two closest competitors are in the sunset portion of their careers, and no other drivers seem able to run consistently week-in and week-out.
  16. brinirmess
    16. Posted by brinirmess Thu Nov 05, 2009 12:43 pm EST

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    If only, whatever, thoe chances won't have me tuning in
  17. MarkN
    17. Posted by MarkN Thu Nov 05, 2009 12:45 pm EST

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    Brin that's because your boy is out of it. I'll be watching every lap to the end.
  18. Dani
    18. Posted by Dani Thu Nov 05, 2009 1:40 pm EST

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    The majority of comments on these blogs about JJ and his 4th title sounds a bit like Kyle... if I can't win, I'm outta here. There's 42 other drivers out there and 11 are in the Chase racing for a position.
  19. Jimmie48
    19. Posted by Jimmie48 Thu Nov 05, 2009 2:48 pm EST

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    I think everyone needs to get over this whole "under the old points system" thing. Thats in the past and gone. Maybe there will be new changes maybe not. But for now it is what it is.
  20. brinirmess
    20. Posted by brinirmess Thu Nov 05, 2009 2:56 pm EST

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    Nope Mark, been discouraged by the whole thing this year. It started with the Sam fine, reached it's height with the annoucement from Nascar about JJ and MM's warning, and then Dega was the ending point. I'm still interested in what's going on, but not enough to plan my day around it every weekend anymore. And certainly not enough to spend 4+ hours watching. I use to attend every race here at MIS. Just not willing to spend that kinda time or money on something I can record and FF through till the last 50 laps. Disenchanted big time.
  21. brinirmess
    21. Posted by brinirmess Thu Nov 05, 2009 2:57 pm EST

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    #18, DUH!
  22. Willy Doer
    22. Posted by Willy Doer Thu Nov 05, 2009 3:07 pm EST

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    I think all the Jimmie fans need to realize what he is accomplishing is great....but not the same. People will quit comparing the chase to the old point system when people also quit claiming that winning a cup in this format...is equal to what a WINSTON cup was. It isn't and won't be....I don't care how much BS you put in front of it.
    Jimmie is awesome.....but the Chase format is DIFFERENT. You simply cannot compare the two systems wether you like it or not.
  23. Rudy88
    23. Posted by Rudy88 Thu Nov 05, 2009 3:45 pm EST

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    Dani - I've got to agree with you wholeheartedly! I'm a Jr fan and I still have fun and get excited when he starts moving up towards the front, even knowing he isn't in the chase, or watch MM gain a few positions, or see JG try to pass JJ! There's still a whole lot of fun to be had. Then to top it off, a possible record making season. And then there's my fantasy picks to watch. I don't know how anyone can stop watching it just because their driver can't win it all! Come on BRINI! Have fun with us. All you have to do is look for the positive and you can enjoy the race! :D
  24. Rudy88
    24. Posted by Rudy88 Thu Nov 05, 2009 3:50 pm EST

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    Willy Doer - What everyone need to keep in mind is the fact that EVERY DRIVER has had the same opportunity, from the first race on. If they weren't able to take advantage of those opportunities, that's their problem and should not take anything away from the ones, or one that did take advantage of the program.
  25. Dani
    25. Posted by Dani Thu Nov 05, 2009 4:03 pm EST

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    Rudy - Amen... I think true racing fans will hang in there no matter what happens.

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