Cagewriter - UFC

With all the promotional mess and contract negotiations it's ashame we don't get to see Fedor Emelianenko (30-1) more often. He's only fought four times in the last 35 months. That may be the reason, he's dropped to No. 3 in the Yahoo! Sports' MMA pound-for-pound rankings (Cagewriter still has him No. 1). Or could it be all of Dana White's bashing that has affected those who formerly favored the Russian as the world's best?

Real MMA fans and bettors know how good the guy is and have bet him up to a 9-to-1 favorite in Las Vegas. Strikeforce on CBS kicks off at 9 p.m. ET/PT.

STRIKEFORCE PICKS (Odds courtest Venetian Resort Casino Hotel):
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BRETT ROGERS (+550) v. FEDOR EMELIANENKO (-900) - HEAVYWEIGHT
Rogers has a lot of tools that could allow him to beat Fedor. He's a huge dude with a 31 pound weight advantage. He's a solid striker with fast hands. The biggest issue is what happens if the fight goes to the ground. We have zero clue as to how Rogers will handle himself. That's an awful question going in against a guy with 16 submission wins and six of his last seven by sub. Fedor deserves to be a huge favorite but anytime the odds get this high you have take a look at the dog. The plus-550 is nice return on a guy with knockout power. Fedor will win the fight but you have to roll the dice with a small bet on Rogers.
PICK: ROGERS +550

JASON MILLER (+220) v. JAKE SHIELDS (-300) - MIDDLEWEIGHT
Vegas says the action all been on Shields, who opened minus-220. That's a little surprising with Miller gaining some traction with his MTV show "Bully Beatdown." Truth is though only hardcores are betting this Strikeforce card and they know how good Shields is. What quality win does Miller have in the last three years? The best was against Tim Kennedy. I don't know if he could beat 2009 Tim Kennedy. If it stays on the feet the entire time, Shields stand up is shaky. But it won't. Miller has mediocre takedown defense. Shields rolls via submission. This one opened at -220. There's no value now that it's jumped 80 cents.   
SHIELDS -300

RAMEAU THIERRY SOKOUDJOU (+350) v. GEGARD MOUSASI (-500) - LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT
Mousasi is probably the No. 2 non-UFC fighter in the world. That doesn't mean he's unbeatable but his package is pretty complete. Sokoudjou brings power to the cage but that's about it. Sokoudjou may want to get this to the ground and try to slow down the pace but he won't. He'll come out slugging and run out of gas like he often does. Mousasi finishes this one late first or early second. Same deal here on the action. It's all been on the side of the favorite. Mousasi opened in Vegas at minus-360.
PICK: MOUSASI -500

ANTONIO SILVA v. FABRICIO WERDUM - HEAVYWEIGHT 
There's been solid two-way action on this fight and there should be. I'm not a huge Silva fan but he's dangerous in this fight against Werdum. I don't like the fact that Werdum came in weighing in the 240's. He's most effective in the low 230's. Werdum needs to get it to the ground to finish it. No one is going to rock that huge noggin of Silva. Silva will be tough to get down. He'll pull the mild upset setting up a fight against Fedor on CBS in the first quarter of 2010.  
PICK: SILVA +140

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29 Comments

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  1. arrogant bastard
    1. Posted by arrogant bastard Sat Nov 07, 2009 3:52 pm EST

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    Fedor 1st rd sub.
    Shields 1st rd sub.
    Mousasi 1st rd TKO.
    Werdum decision.
    Nothing worth betting on. The faves are too expensive.
  2. David B
    2. Posted by David B Sat Nov 07, 2009 3:59 pm EST

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    I see the Rogers vs. Fedor fight as almost even money. Rogers is solid, but his opponents are less than stellar. Fedor is a beast , but his opponents are also less than stellar for the most part. Rogers has size, Fedor has the ground advantage. Since they will start on their feet ,that gives Rogers the advantage to start ;) Most of betting public in Vegas is betting on rep alone. Both would be underdogs against Lesnar :0
  3. swrestler
    3. Posted by swrestler Sat Nov 07, 2009 5:19 pm EST

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    Fedor an underdog against Lesnar. I hope that was a joke?
  4. HOWARD M
    4. Posted by HOWARD M Sat Nov 07, 2009 5:57 pm EST

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    Fedor was minus 600 at the Palms this morning.
  5. David B
    5. Posted by David B Sat Nov 07, 2009 6:04 pm EST

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    Not a joke- look who Fedor has beat since 2004 - Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira, Kohasaka , Filipovic , Zuluzinho , Mark Coleman , Matt Lindland, Hong Man Choi , Tim Sylvia , Arlovski , - Not too impressive when you really look at who he has fought . Has Fedor beat anyone that is at the level of a Randy Couture in the past 5 years ??? No. Fedor is a good fighter- but I think a bit over rated . Look at the guys he has beat and again ask yourself if any are top 10 Heavyweights at the moment . Keep hating on Brock -
  6. Jason
    6. Posted by Jason Sat Nov 07, 2009 6:25 pm EST

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    But who has Couture fought in that time... not to mention he is 16-10. Nogueria (loss), Brock (loss), Gonzaga and Tim Sylvia (who you give little credit to Fedor for defeating), Liddell (loss; this guy a top 10 at the moment?), Arsdale, Liddell (loss again), Vitor Belfort. So the answer to your question as posed is Nogueria. He beat a man that defeated Couture fairly easily.
    Lesnar is a quality athlete. Fedor is a quality athlete. Hard to say who is overrated. It is just the nature of the business. If you do not lose then it is your (insert fighter) era. You simply have to keep on winning. The second Brock loses then he won't be the big monster and someone else will be. If Fedor loses then it will be as if he was never good and was a chump for his entire career.
  7. Eduardo M
    7. Posted by Eduardo M Sat Nov 07, 2009 6:29 pm EST

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    Fedor will actually rape Roger "the black king kong" unless Roger come with rage and knocked the crap out of fedor. It might be the upset of the century. Reminds me of Gsp vs Sierra. Spooky :-D
  8. David B
    8. Posted by David B Sat Nov 07, 2009 6:54 pm EST

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    Brock already lost ;) I just don't buy that Fedor is the baddest man on the planet. Arlovski was doing pretty good until Fedor connected. I still see Bobby Lashley as being a serious threat to any heavyweight . Either way , this is a great night for MMA !!
  9. PaddyRite
    9. Posted by PaddyRite Sat Nov 07, 2009 6:56 pm EST

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    No value here at all besides Werdum/Silva. A telling story that Werdum is 240+. All his losses have come at that at over 240.
  10. Beaver Fever
    10. Posted by Beaver Fever Sat Nov 07, 2009 7:18 pm EST

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    I miss that sweater...
  11. ch h
    11. Posted by ch h Sat Nov 07, 2009 7:19 pm EST

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    Don't underestimate jason miller
  12. STEELERS  ARE ALL TIME BEST
    12. Posted by STEELERS ARE ALL TIME BEST Sat Nov 07, 2009 7:45 pm EST

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    Fedor will knock him out in first round unless its rigged to let it go longer.
  13. Jason
    13. Posted by Jason Sat Nov 07, 2009 7:45 pm EST

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    Yeah, Brock did lose. I guess I mean in a manner where people do not think of it as a 'fluke' (the horseshoe in the ass thing). Arvloski was doing well, but I do not think Fedor was in as much trouble there as he was against Fujita. Getting in trouble is one thing and getting out is another. GSP got in trouble against Serra and never managed to get out. While Fedor in both the Fujita and Arvloski situation he found the way to win.
    I tend to think Fedor has some serious problems coming up. The size difference is something I would expect to catch up to him before age. That and simply odds. At some point everyone loses.
    I hope the Strikeforce event is a success. I hope Fedor wins as I think it is important for Strikeforce. I do not think however that if Fedor loses it means he was never anything... that he unfavorably compares to other heavyweights since 2005 or that he is not a top guy.
    Regards
  14. Jimmy
    14. Posted by Jimmy Sat Nov 07, 2009 7:48 pm EST

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    im curious about rogers' cardio...none of his fights left the 2nd minute of the 2nd round...Seems like Roger's only chance is to really come out bullrushing and see if his power can really take out Fedor...otherwise i see Fedor totally picking apart Rogers as time goes on. Essentially, time is against Rogers' chances of winning this fight...but we shall see..
  15. CHRISL
    15. Posted by CHRISL Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:11 pm EST

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    I doubt that Lesnar would last past the first round against Fedor.
  16. Matthew
    16. Posted by Matthew Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:12 pm EST

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    Where did you get Rogers at +550?
  17. William
    17. Posted by William Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:20 pm EST

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    Fedor is weak, because he turned down millions of dollars not to fight BROCK. This dude is not a beast until he fights in the UFC......................
  18. SamH
    18. Posted by SamH Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:28 pm EST

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    LOL to post #5. You are right, Nogueira, Lindland, Crocop, Coleman, those guys are all chumps! Keep in mind almost all of them were BETTER when Fedor faught them. Rogers will always have that punchers chance, and Fedor isnt getting younger.....I cant say I will be overly surprised if Rogers landed a big shot, but if Fedor does what he usually does it will be over quickly
  19. Mike S
    19. Posted by Mike S Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:30 pm EST

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    Fedor chooses not to fight in the UFC. White would take him in a heartbeat, because White likes good fights, but I am convinced that Fedor wants to retain control.
  20. Matt M
    20. Posted by Matt M Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:36 pm EST

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    joe/nut - Could you provide some reasons to us oh so ignorant mma folks as to why Fedor should not be compared to ali and tyson in mma and sambo?
  21. adolfo d
    21. Posted by adolfo d Sat Nov 07, 2009 9:02 pm EST

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    david b your stupid, you said said Fedor hasnt beat anyone of couture skills??/ couture got demolished handidly by Noguera your freaking Idiot. Noguera has always been better than Couture rookie! Fedor has always been better than all of them. Step your game up PUNK
  22. jkessler11
    22. Posted by jkessler11 Sat Nov 07, 2009 9:03 pm EST

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    only the hardcores know how good jason miller is. if any of you clowns watched him fight jacare you'd know that his sub defense is beyond incredible. shields striking is a joke. look for the upset on this one ladies. Miller via TKO
  23. jkessler11
    23. Posted by jkessler11 Sat Nov 07, 2009 9:20 pm EST

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    not to mention mayhem is probably walking around at 200 while shields is walking around a 184. good luck jake, you'll need it.
  24. Damon
    24. Posted by Damon Sat Nov 07, 2009 9:38 pm EST

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    David B jus to let u kno be4 fedor signed with strikeforce there was a lot of talk that he would join ufc, during this time there were moneylines for a future fedor vs lesnar fight, the fight had 2 years to take place so it was the same as if it were happening tomorrow cuz the moneylines wouldnt have been difffernent, and fedor was a -220 favorite just to let u kno, so ur an idiot saying brock would be the favorite
  25. surfer
    25. Posted by surfer Sat Nov 07, 2009 10:14 pm EST

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    Fedor is an exciting fighter. That alone insures I will watch him regardless of tonight's outcome. Yes "Rodgezilla" has the guns and a puncher's chance. Yes he will be in trouble on the mat. The "man who beat the man"......is always the promoter.
    Brock VS Fedor? Who gives a sh$t who wins? That is some action and beer.....so I'm all in. All I see on these blogs is beer/overthinking. Enjoy the moment. Beware the promoters.

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