NFL Notes: Go Greene

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• Welcome back, Ryan Grant(notes). His 148 yards rushing last week was his most since Week 14 of 2007, and after showing large home/road splits last season (4.9 YPC at home, 2.9 YPC on the road), he’s done the opposite this year (3.6 YPC at home, 4.7 YPC on the road). That stat isn’t all that significant, but it is an oddity. Either way, Grant’s owners have to be feeling a lot better today than they were last week, regardless of how weak the opponent was. … Despite a shaky offensive line and an underperforming Greg Jennings(notes), Aaron Rodgers(notes) currently leads the NFL (by a wide margin) with 9.3 YPA. Drew Brees(notes) also has a good argument, but when you account for the discrepancy in running games and defenses, Rodgers has been the NFC’s MVP so far. … Maybe Greg Jennings will be a buy-low candidate every week this season, but I doubt it. Go target him. … Mohamed Massaquoi(notes) continues to get targeted heavily, including on five deep balls and two looks inside the 10 last week. However, it doesn’t matter much when defenses are able to roll coverage his way, and his QB is terribly inaccurate. Massaquoi’s efficiency numbers are going to look awful at season’s end, and it’s not even close to his fault.

• Despite the loss, 49ers fans have to be highly encouraged right now. Not only has Vernon Davis(notes) (finally) become a premier tight end in the league (and a top-three fantasy one), Michael Crabtree(notes) somehow immediately made an impact while playing for the first time in nearly 11 months, and Alex Smith might have just resurrected his career. Crabtree looks like the real deal, but it’s worth noting Smith performed in favorable conditions – playing against an already soft defense that had a big lead – so we’ll see how he does against a D prepared for him (a tough test this week in Indy). Still, with better arm strength and mobility, Smith always possessed far more upside than Shaun Hill(notes). But accuracy and decision-making are the two most important aspects of playing quarterback, so it remains to be seen if he’s truly made improvements in those areas. … Steve Slaton(notes) didn’t forget how to run between the tackles during the offseason. This is a running back who got 4.8 YPC on 268 carries last season, so while he deserves a bunch of criticism for his fumbles (this is beyond a legitimate concern, as he would’ve lost two last week if not for a close overturn on review), the Texans stagnant rushing game is all about poor blocking. The offensive line has been hit with injuries at both guard positions, and it’s not like Chris Brown (3.3 YPC) has been markedly better. With his heavy involvement in the passing game, Slaton remains plenty valuable. It really would be interesting to see what Houston would do if he continues to fumble, because that offense suffers quite a bit when he’s off the field. … San Francisco’s trade last year for the Panthers’ 2010 first-round draft pick is looking better each week, as that could easily be in the top-10.

• Tough to evaluate this Chargers team right now, but I still say they remain more likely to disappoint than realize their potential like they did last week in Kansas City. Even in a 30-point blowout and with multiple goal-line attempts, LaDainian Tomlinson(notes) continues to disappoint. It’s going to be a long year for LT owners…You don’t need me to tell you to grab Jamaal Charles(notes). Larry Johnson(notes) did his best to lose his job through performance, and when that didn’t work, he decided to take it up a notch and sabotage his career through Twitter. Charles is a better fit for Kansas City’s spread offense anyway, and while he’s battled fumbling problems and injuries in the past, this is a RB who has averaged 5.3 YPC throughout his career and is dangerous in the passing game. He could be a difference maker from here on out.

• Even at 6-0 facing a Pittsburgh team that was at home and in much more need of a win, the Vikings hardly laid down last week, playing the Steelers extremely tough. Still, it’s worth noting Brett Favre(notes) has gotten just 6.2 YPA with only one touchdown over two outdoor games this season. … It’s really hard not to view Sidney Rice(notes) as a top-20 fantasy WR right now, and that’s being conservative. … Adrian Peterson is on pace to finish with about 200 fewer rushing yards this season compared to last, but he already has more receiving yards this year than he did in 2008 and is just two touchdowns shy of reaching his total from last season (10). His YPC is also up (5.0). Bottom line, AP hasn’t been overworked and has been as productive as ever. … Mike Wallace’s(notes) emergence probably won’t be too big of a hindrance this year, but it’s not great long-term news for Santonio Holmes(notes) and Hines Ward’s(notes) prospective fantasy value. Wallace looks like he’s going to be a big part of Pittsburgh’s offense in the future.

• Joseph Addai(notes) has eclipsed 80 yards rushing just once over his last 28 games, and while ostensibly healthy this year, his YPC has dropped for a third straight season, somehow bottoming out at 3.3 despite defenses focusing on stopping Peyton Manning(notes). Still, he’s active as a receiver, gets the goal-line work and with Donald Brown(notes) (shoulder) slated to miss 2-3 weeks, Addai is a fine RB2. I still bet Brown is taken ahead of Addai at draft tables in 2010. … Your weekly Steven Jackson update: now on pace to finish the season with 1,838 total yards and zero touchdowns. … I still like Donnie Avery(notes) as a WR3, but he’s quickly earning an injury-prone label.

• Not that Laurence Maroney(notes) impressed, but at least he scored, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis(notes) got just 0.9 YPC. Maroney remains a viable flex play after the team’s upcoming bye. … Wes Welker(notes) continues to get targeted more than Randy Moss(notes), and he hauled in all 10 of his targets last week. In PPR leagues, he might be worth a top-10 pick if a draft were held today. … Odds will still point against it, but looking at Tampa Bay’s upcoming schedule, don’t be shocked if a team finishes 0-16 for the second straight year.

• One thing is clear: Ryan Fitzpatrick(notes) is good news for Lee Evans(notes) owners. Meanwhile, Terrell Owens(notes) is on pace to finish the season with 41 catches, 553 yards and two touchdowns. … Not much more can be said about Jake Delhomme(notes) at this point, but at least DeAngelo Williams(notes) seems to be turning things around. He already has more than 50 more receiving yards this year than he did all of last season, and Carolina figures to only go even more ground-heavy if the team switches quarterbacks as well. … One of the more surprising aspects of the season has been Buffalo’s play in the secondary, as the unit has allowed just 5.8 YPA (third lowest in NFL) with a league-high 13 interceptions, holding opposing passers to a 58.0 QB rating.

• Run, don’t walk to pick up Shonn Greene(notes). With Leon Washington(notes) (leg) unfortunately lost for the season, Greene is an immediate flex option on a run-first team with terrific blocking. For the second straight year, Thomas Jones(notes) has been one of the sneakiest and most underrated commodities, but he’s 31 years old and approaching 2,100 career carries, so he’s no guarantee to last the year. Greene has impressed in his limited work, and he should be a real difference maker moving forward. … Even though the Jets threw just 15 passes, it’s a little disconcerting to see Braylon Edwards(notes) so invisible, especially with no Jerricho Cotchery(notes) competing for targets. … And no need to apologize for eating that hot dog on the sidelines, Mark Sanchez(notes), JaMarcus Russell’s(notes) play was far more offensive.

• If I’m a Matt Forte(notes) owner, I’m hoping for the best this week at home against a Cleveland defense that has allowed the second-highest YPC (4.9) on the year, and then I’m shopping him, even fully aware he’ll be highly discounted. … It’s safe to say Chad Johnson is back. He already has more receiving yards and touchdowns over seven games than he did all of last season (over 13 games). Carson Palmer(notes) had quite possibly the best game of his career last week, which is hopefully a sign of things to come for this passing attack. … I’m a huge Jay Cutler(notes) fan, but he continues to throw too many interceptions, and he’s lucky just one of his seven fumbles have been recovered by the defense this season. That said, the Bears’ defense is a much bigger worry in Chicago.

• The Cowboys had an impressive win Sunday, but it was the first time they beat a team with a winning record all year, and they were at home and coming off a bye. Still, Tony Romo(notes) has gotten a staggering 10.5 YPA with a 5:0 TD:INT ratio over the past two games, and it’s hardly a coincidence that has also coincided with Miles Austin(notes) entering the starting lineup. Chances are, Austin’s not going to match his 210.5 yards per game average as a starter moving forward, but it’s clear who is Dallas’ No. 1 wide receiver. Not to overreact, but he’s got to currently be viewed as a top-15 fantasy WR, right? … In deeper leagues, Jason Snelling(notes) isn’t a bad speculative add. With Jerious Norwood(notes) (hip) out indefinitely, Snelling is going to be involved in Atlanta’s offense, especially with Michael Turner(notes) struggling. Snelling has averaged 4.7 YPC throughout his (brief) career, and he’s going to be heavily involved as a receiver. … Speaking of Turner, I would argue the “370 curse” has something to do with his disappointing year (touchdowns notwithstanding), but counting the playoffs, Adrian Peterson had 383 carries to Turner’s 394 last season, and AP has hardly been affected, and it’s not like Turner has a lot of mileage on his legs. While Matt Ryan(notes) has been more productive in the red zone, his YPA has dropped from 7.9 last year to 7.1 this season, so the Falcons’ passing game has regressed, despite the Tony Gonzalez(notes) addition. Moreover, Turner’s disappointing 2009 can easily be blamed on a much tougher schedule this year compared to last, which shouldn’t be all that surprising since he feasted on bottom-five rushing defenses last year and struggled against top competition.

• Up 31-3 at one point, most backers of Miami ATS probably didn’t expect to lose Sunday but so was the case. I blame Tony Sparano. With 5 seconds left in the first half in a 24-3 game, the Saints inexplicably brought out their field goal unit at the 1-yard line, and naturally, Sparano called a timeout. Umm, what? Who cares if you didn’t have the right personnel on the field? You should be begging New Orleans to kick at that point. Terrible, terrible decision (which resulted in New Orleans changing its mind and scoring a TD easily on a Drew Brees sneak). … I’m not sure if it qualified as revenge like Cedric Benson(notes) against his former team, but Ricky Williams(notes) was awfully impressive Sunday. He’s currently getting 5.7 YPC. His previous career-high was 4.8. … Marques Colston(notes) was close to scoring at least three touchdowns last week, and if he can remain healthy, he’ll enter 2010 in the first tier of fantasy wide receivers.

• Maybe it shouldn’t come as a surprise since they were just in the Super Bowl and all – I did expect regression this year – but make no mistake, this Cardinals team is very dangerous. The passing attack has taken a step back, and Kurt Warner’s(notes) health remains a long-term concern, but that aspect should only get better over the course of the season, and this defense has allowed the fewest YPC (3.0) in the NFL. The secondary is improving as well, and Arizona’s 16 sacks are the eighth most in the league. … Hakeem Nicks(notes) has a bright future, but Sunday’s 62-yard TD was an obvious fluke (he wasn’t even the intended receiver), and a lot of his production over the past four games has come in garbage time. He’s still third in the receiving pecking order on a run-first team, so it might be worthwhile at least seeing if another owner values him scoring in four straight games more than you do. … In my home league, I offered someone (let’s call him “Dusty”) Chris Wells and Kellen Winslow(notes) for Antonio Gates(notes) (he has Tim Hightower(notes), who he often uses as a starter) last week. He rejected, with this response: “Wells would almost certainly sit on my bench barring an injury to Hightower.” I argued I’d never even offer this deal if not for me being 2-4 and with Winslow having a tough matchup against NE in Week 7 and then a bye afterward, but I’m desperate and willing to take a long-term loss of upside, but it fell on deaf ears. I know no one wants to hear about personal fantasy stories, but there’s a bigger picture at play here: owners in power at this time of year should absolutely be targeting guys like Wells (although he doesn’t qualify anymore, after he had 14 carries to Hightower’s four last week. On the year, Wells has gotten nearly a full yard more per carry than Hightower, who figures to be faded even further out of the gameplan moving forward. Wells is still an injury risk, but he’s a special talent who was drafted in the first round and has an elite passing attack, strong defense and weak division working in his favor. Three of Arizona’s next four opponents rank in the bottom-10 in rushing defense, and they get the Lions and Rams in crucial Weeks 15 and 16), as teams desperate for wins to make the playoffs are much more likely to give away long-term upside guys like Donald Brown, Shonn Greene, Darren Sproles(notes), Felix Jones(notes), etc. in return for short-term gains. If you’re in good position to make the playoffs this year, don’t be the “Dusty” of your league.

• DeSean Jackson(notes) is clearly one of the most explosive players in the NFL, although his durability is in question. Still, no player in football is making more big plays right now. … Tight end is deep this year, but after the bye, Fred Davis(notes) isn’t a bad option for those in need, although apparently Chris Cooley(notes) (ankle) may return this season after all. … Jeremy Maclin(notes) has been relatively quiet after his Week 5 explosion (six catches, 59 yards over two games), but he’s locked into the No. 2 WR role in Philadelphia with Kevin Curtis (knee) done for, and he was actually targeted two more times than Jackson on Monday night, leading the team with seven looks. The talented rookie is going to make an impact over the rest of the year. Check out the Eagles’ schedule from here on out, as it appears there may be plenty of shootouts. Go get Maclin before it’s too late. … Larry David is more likely to turn down a date with a handicapped woman than Jim Zorn is to return as head coach in 2010. … The worst offensive unit in all of football right now might be when Michael Vick(notes) enters the game for the Eagles.