East Coast Offense

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Overplaying Matchups

There are exceptions to every rule, but I’m rarely going to start a significantly lower-ranked player over a higher one just because of matchups. This isn’t because a softer matchup can’t make up for the disparity in talent or opportunity – it often does. It’s because what seems like an easy matchup often isn’t.

Just this week you might have thought David Garrard(notes) and Mike Sims-Walker(notes) were good plays against a Titans defense that was the worst in the league against the pass. And they would have been had Tennessee played the same way it had through six games. But the Titans rushed the passer, didn’t miss coverage assignments and completely shut down Jacksonville’s passing attack. So the matchup turned out to be much tougher than Tennessee’s past performance would lead one to believe. Kevin Smith(notes) should have had it easy at home against a soft Rams defense, too. But he averaged just 2.8 yards per carry before aggravating a shoulder injury.

I was talking with Mike Salfino on our Blog Talk Radio podcast about a version of this topic last week. I asked him how you know a team that’s been bad against the pass in four of its last five games will make it five-for-six. In other words, how do we know whether a trend will continue? He said essentially that after seven weeks, we know a fair amount about where teams stand. (Incidentally, Salfino’s stats are excellent at tracking past performance, i.e., if you want to know which matchups have been good or bad, to date.)

I didn’t follow up on it at the time, but it got me thinking. I take Salfino’s point to be that teams have established their baselines by now. Over 2-3 games a team can play over its head or below its capacity, but after seven we can delete the outliers, focus on the median games and have a sense of who the team is.

While that’s true in some instances, it assumes a team’s baseline remains constant, and that’s not always the case. Playing the Titans in Week 8 was nothing like playing them in Week 6. Sometimes weekly variance is due to a team playing its “A” or “B” game – variation around a single baseline – and other times you’re not even playing the same team. Of course, one can argue that this is just semantics, and it all depends on how you define deviating around a baseline versus moving it. But I’d say when a team plays better or worse around a particular baseline, those better or worse games bring it into clearer focus. But when a team’s performance is completely out of line with anything it has done to date, that obliterates the prior baseline and makes much of the statistical data from previous weeks totally irrelevant. In other words, I think teams move along two axes – the capacity one (“A” game vs. “B” game) and the identity one (old version vs. new version).

The possibility of the latter happening is what makes analyzing and handicapping the NFL – for purposes of beating the spread, or evaluating the quality of the defense facing your running back – so difficult. We can’t merely look at data from previous weeks and assume it’s just a matter of expanding the sample and refining the picture. Sometimes just as the picture’s coming into focus, the team moves out of the frame, and you have to start all over again.

Pierre Thomas(notes) and Steve Slaton(notes)

Both players have been frustrating to own, not so much because they haven’t produced – Thomas is the No. 13 back on a per-game basis in standard leagues, and Slaton is 15 – but because it’s obvious they could have done so much more. In Thomas’ case, it’s mostly because the Saints mix it up so much on offense, and Mike Bell(notes) and even Reggie Bush(notes) see goal-line carries. But Thomas is clearly the best back on the team, and if the Saints would just lose a game or two, Sean Payton might be forced to use him more. As long as that team is undefeated, Payton can mix and match however he wants – if he wants Drew Brees(notes) to sneak in 10 touchdowns this year, why not? At a minimum Thomas will get 10-15 carries per game in one of the top-three offenses in the NFL, catch a couple passes and get occasional goal-line touches. But he has the upside to almost single-handedly win you your league if Bell gets hurt, or Payton feels the urgency to play him.

Slaton lost carries because he’s had trouble holding onto the ball, which is strange because it wasn’t a problem during his rookie year (two fumbles in 268 attempts). He’s also averaged just 3.1 yards per carry, and there’s some talk that his bulking up in the offseason has slowed him down. (His 10.8 yard-per-catch average and three receiving touchdowns belie that, however.) And had Slaton not fumbled against the Bills last week, it’s not hard to imagine him racking up most of Ryan Moats’(notes) numbers, which would have easily made him a top-10 fantasy back so far. So even with Chris Brown around to steal some goal-line looks, and Slaton not finding a lot of room in the running game, he’s a top-10 back in standard leagues so long as he gets his usual carries. That might not happen for a week or two, as Moats will be in the mix in the short term. But as long as Slaton doesn’t fumble, he should have a chance to reclaim his role. And if Slaton finds a few more holes – or if Brown were to get hurt, as he usually does – Slaton, like Pierre Thomas, could be an absolute monster heading into your league playoffs.

Bad Game Plan Award

This one goes to the Jaguars’ Jack Del Rio. Maurice Jones-Drew(notes) had eight carries for 177 yards, two touchdowns and no fumbles Sunday, while David Garrard had 27 passing attempts for 139 yards, no touchdowns, three sacks and two picks. Draw your own conclusions about the play-calling and the failure to adjust the game plan to a Tennessee pass defense that quite obviously was not the disastrous one from earlier in the year.

Good Solider Award

Give Jeff Fisher credit for not sulking and getting his team ready like a pro after owner Bud Adams meddled by insisting Vince Young(notes) get the start. How many coaches of Fisher’s stature would go about their business while not making a peep after the owner overruled him on something like that? There’s a reason owners notorious for meddling are stuck with Wade Phillips, Jim Zorn and Tom Cable as their head coaches

Things to Take Away from Week 8

• I hate to admit it because I was down on him, but Thomas Jones(notes) is likely to finish as a top-10 back again this season – he’s reliable, durable and in a good situation. I wouldn’t write off Shonn Greene(notes) after one bad game, but Jones will get his share of touches no matter what Greene does.

• Larry Fitzgerald(notes) has turned into T.J. Houshmandzadeh(notes), while Tim Hightower(notes) leads all backs with 39 receptions in seven games. I can’t believe that this is due simply to increased coverage on Fitzgerald – why didn’t the teams Arizona faced in the playoffs last year simply increase the coverage? It has to be on the offensive line and Kurt Warner(notes) needing to get rid of the ball too quickly. Elite receivers often get the maximum possible coverage. If the Cardinals can give Warner time – like they were able to against the Steelers in the Super Bowl – Fitzgerald will make the big plays that are missing from his production so far this season. If and when that happens, the battle for carries between Chris Wells and Hightower will matter a lot more.

• I don’t see any reason to get excited about Anthony Gonzalez’s(notes) eventual return to the Colts. Reggie Wayne(notes) and Dallas Clark(notes) will be Peyton Manning’s(notes) first two looks, and Austin Collie(notes) is effective as a possession guy. Maybe Gonzalez takes Pierre Garcon’s(notes) role, but the upside there is minimal if everyone stays healthy.

• Vince Young looked like the version from his rookie year, making good decisions on whether to run or pass, and throwing accurately enough when receivers were open. As long as Tennessee’s defense plays more like it did this week – pressure on the quarterback, no breakdowns in the secondary – and Young isn’t playing from way behind, he could be a viable fantasy quarterback going forward. It looked like the Titans were giving him freedom to use his legs and not forcing him to be a conventional pocket passer.

• Alex Smith held his own on the road against a tough pass defense. He should only get better as the season goes on and Michael Crabtree(notes) gets more experience.

• If the season ended today, Brett Favre(notes) would deserve MVP consideration (Peyton Manning and Drew Brees would likely beat him out), and that would be true even without all the hype about going into Lambeau and beating his old team. Shame on all the news outlets that treated his uncertain return from a legitimate arm injury as the annoying and desperate ploy of an over-the-hill athlete. The same outlets that lavished praise (deserved or not) without conscience on him for 15 years were the ones making the drama by covering it 24/7 and also mocking him for it. Thankfully, Favre ignored all those idiots and didn’t leave another great season or two on the table. (I’m similarly happy for Alex Rodriguez, who, like Favre, is truly enjoying the game in spite of all the bloodthirsty media types who tried to bury him.)

Things to Watch in Week 9

• Are the Giants going to bounce back against a beatable Chargers team or pack it in for good?

• Can Tony Romo(notes) and the Cowboys keep their poise in the face of the Eagles blitz?

• Can the Texans establish beyond any doubt they’re legitimate contenders by hanging in Indy?

• Can the Broncos regain their momentum at home against the Steelers after a blowout loss in Baltimore?

• Can the Ravens beat the Bengals on the road to earn a season split?

Beating the Book

Redskins +10 at Falcons

I’ve been burned by the Redskins a few times this year, but I like them in this spot off the bye and getting so many points. While Washington has played a soft schedule, it has given up the fewest points of any team in the NFC, and it actually played the Eagles very tough in Philly the last time out, the final score notwithstanding. (Washington got to Donovan McNabb(notes) in that game and more or less shut the Eagles down except for two big plays to DeSean Jackson(notes).) Atlanta should be able to pull this one out at home, but the Redskins keep it close enough. Back Washington.

Prediction: Falcons 21-17

We’re 5-3 in this forum for the season, 56-59-1 overall (10-3 last week). We were 12-5 in this forum last year, but 124-122 for the season overall. From 1999-2008 we’re 1,308-1,140 (53.4 percent, not including ties).

The full article comes out on Thursday morning.

Surviving Week 9

The Cardinals’ loss took down a few teams last week, but the three biggest favorites (San Diego, Chicago and Indy) all got through. There are likely record numbers of survivors this far into the season in many pools, but that can change instantly with a big upset or two.

This week, the Saints are the biggest favorite, though I’m wary of them against a Carolina team that took the Cardinals apart in Arizona a week ago. New Orleans has been great this year, but it has also been lucky, with five pick sixes and some favorable calls in big spots. Still, I’m probably going with the Saints. The Packers (who I used three weeks ago) look good on paper in Tampa, but they’re on the road, facing a team off a bye and likely demoralized after Brett Favre came back to Lambeau and lit them up. The Seahawks at home against the Lions are also a possibility, but it’s always dicey to put your fate in the hands of a team playing that poorly. Finally, Atlanta should handle Washington at home, but as mentioned above, I think that will be a close game, and I’d be loath to set my best bet and survivor picks against one another. For now, I’ll say Saints, Packers, Seahawks, Falcons in that order, but I’m very seriously considering the Seahawks as my official pick, and I reserve the right to change my mind when the full article comes out Thursday night.