Breakfast Table: Booth review
From: Michael Salfino
Date: Tue, Nov. 10, 2009 at 9:39 PM
Subject: Pats-Colts Breakfast
To: Scott Pianowski
Or “Week 10” if you prefer. But let me say first that we are really fortunate as lovers of NFL football to have two inner-circle Hall of Fame QBs like Peyton Manning(notes) and Tom Brady(notes) playing overlapping careers and playing in the same conference – thus getting more chances to face each other head-to-head. So, this is a special week and I’m really looking forward to the game. It’s the Sunday Nighter, too, so you get your boy Cris Collinsworth (I’ll take Jon Gruden any day).
We’ve passed the halfway points so the GPS should have kicked in by now and given us a very definite sense of whether some key teams are going in the direction of “pretender” or “contender.” In other words, anyone who wants to bet me this week laying 3-to-1 odds on the Chargers winning the AFC West over the suddenly very offensively challenged Broncos – you’re on. Which teams are you ready to make a call on? Is this Jeff Erickson’s year with the Bengals? Is the plague of frogs next?
I wasted some good material on a Yahoo! comment board responding to a surly reader who was mocking my math ability for questioning the “keep the opposing offense off the field” strategy of the Dolphins. Maybe “wasted” is too strong a word. But it was a lot of work to counter an argument by one person. So, here it is for you all: given the outer limits of reasonable assumptions regarding the relative quality of NFL teams, the weaker team has about a three percent better chance of winning by giving the opponent two less possessions (about the limits of what you can do with time of possession). So, it’s a waste of time, literally and figuratively – better to focus on figuring out a way to score more points.
Steelers-Bengals should be touched on. Philly at San Diego, too. I’m not going out of my way to focus on any other games, not even Dallas at Green Bay (the Cowboys will win handily). What about you? Breakfast is served.
From: Scott Pianowski
Date: Thu, Nov 12, 2009 at 10:49 AM
Subject: Re: Pats-Colts Breakfast
To: Michael Salfino
Jon Gruden’s been mediocre at best on Monday Night Football. “Brett Keisel(notes) is a football player. He really brings it!” When someone can coerce Gruden to actually break down a play, I’m intrigued, and he’s excellent. But he spends too much time with empty and generic gushing, and the show really breaks down when Gruden and Ron Jaworski get silly (which seems to happen 3-4 times a night; throw out any five-syllable word and the booth turns into a slumber party).
It’s a shame. Grudes and Jaworski know so much about football, especially quarterback play, but it’s like pulling teeth to get them to share it. This could be an outstanding team (Mike Tirico is outstanding as the traffic cop) but it isn’t. Of course, you and I aren’t the target audience here, MNF is aimed at a different type of viewer.
I’m surprised you don’t like Collinsworth. He’s constantly watching the play away from the ball and he doesn’t need several replays before he says anything insightful (aka, the Troy Aikman problem). And Al Michaels is still one of the top play-by-play guys around.
I was blown away at how dominant Pittsburgh looked on Monday night at Denver. Okay, the Broncos are no great shakes, but the Steelers have it all right now – a lead back who can run inside and out, reliable short passing, explosive plays downfield, 2-3 dynamic playmakers on defense (that unit is completely different with Troy Polamalu(notes) back). Ben Roethlisberger(notes) has grown into one of the five best players in the league; his glowing stats in his early years were misleading, the residual of throwing out of hitter counts, but everything we see on the paper now is authentic. The AFC better hope these guys don’t get a first-round bye.
That doesn’t mean the Bengals can’t compete with them, of course. I gotta give it up to Marvin Lewis, he’s done a fantastic job. Carson Palmer(notes) finally is back to full health and, more importantly, full confidence, Chad Ochocinco(notes) and Cedric Benson(notes) have resurrected their careers, Mike Zimmer has a good thing going with the defense. Even with scrubby Cleveland mucking things up, the AFC North looks like the best division in football.
I’m still feeling my way through the Patriots and Colts. New England feels like a Christmas toy that hasn’t been taken out of the box yet; it’s been such a long time since it faced an offense with teeth (Baltimore, Week 4). The Colts can hang their hat on Peyton Manning (never better) and their pass rush without gimmicks, but good teams will expose this secondary, right? At the end of the day what gets the check mark, Bill Belichick’s mind or Peyton Manning’s on-field instincts?
I’m not fully buying the Cowboys. I hate this offense when it gets close to the goal line, and that’s an area that differentiates great teams from ordinary ones. The big kids get close to the goal, you know they’re punching it in. Dallas gets close and you feel like changing the channel. San Diego has some of that feel to it, too, but I think Norv Turner is almost ready to accept what the rest of us know about LaDainian Tomlinson(notes). It’s a shame they didn’t wait one more year on Michael Turner(notes), but that’s life in the salary cap world – you can’t devote too much money to one position.
Philly’s a bit of an enigma, too. So many dangerous skill players on offense but I don’t like the line, Donovan McNabb’s(notes) accuracy comes and goes, and it’s hard to trust a scheme that’s so imbalanced. The punchlines write themselves with Andy Reid, but for six days a week, he’s a fantastic coach. Is Brian Westbrook(notes) just one step behind Tomlinson on the way out the door, or does Waldo – one of my favorite players of the decade – have some juice left? I’m picking Philly over San Diego for one simple reason – I never trust either of these teams as a favorite.
From: Michael Salfino
Date: Thu, Nov 12, 2009 at 12:08 PM
Subject: Super Charging
To: Scott Pianowski
For me, Gruden conveys the physicality and aggression of the game – its essence – much better than Collinsworth, who always has that look and tone of some guy delivering a punch line in a lame sitcom.
I don’t want to bury the lede with the Steelers – which is that they are great when they go three wide with Mike Wallace(notes) and no-huddle and become a pass-first team that sets up the run that way. They held the Broncos up for a while in the first half by playing old-timey Steelers football. Why don’t we have huddle/no huddle splits? Also note that the Wonder Boy Wannabee Coaching Genius Josh McDaniels kept Elvis Dumervil(notes) and his 10.5 sacks on the sideline most times when Pittsburgh was no huddle. Call a timeout if that’s the only way you can get him back on the field? Bizarre. It’s not like the no-huddle was some unexpected Pittsburgh strategy.
As RotoWire’s Jeff Erickson noted to me on his show this week when I opined again that this is a QB league – “Look at the Bengals without Carson Palmer last year and with a healthy Palmer this year.” Remember, at the end of last season, we Tabled about how the Bengals defense was a pain in the neck. But then I made fun of them for being a non-entity during the “Hard Knocks” season on HBO. Why didn’t I respect them more in August? It seems reasonably obvious in retrospect. Steelers by a TD, though. We agree.
AFC North, best division in football? Nah. NFC East. The Steelers are the best team but the Cowboys and Eagles are next and we can’t forget the Giants, right? Or can we? At least we can be certain they won’t lose again this week. (Chris) Liss, though, likes the Bye Week to cover.
How good are the Cowboys? I say pretty damn good – Saints, Cowboys and Vikings look like the teams to beat in the NFC. But don’t ask me to pick one of them right now.
I’m growing fond of Dallas after everyone buried them and Tony Romo(notes). Your goal-to-goal stat has all kinds of sample size problems. They’re 22nd right now in converting these situations into TDs. But they are third-best in running efficiency and usually if you can run, you do well in tight. The Titans are first in YPR (yards per rush) and seventh in GTG TD%. Jacksonville is second and fifth. The Jets are fourth and 10th. The Panthers are a big outlier, also, at fifth and 28th, but their QB is terrible now. Romo is not. So, if the Cowboys are 6-2 with a weakness that doesn’t make sense, that means they’re likely better than their record, not worse.
The Eagles seem confusing until you accept that the offense relies totally on the big play and is otherwise poor. Their receivers are not built for moving the chains. Philly’s defense is top shelf but that’s not enough to get beyond being a borderline playoff team. Yes, put two-and-two together with what I said about the divisions above and you can surmise that I trust the Ravens even less. Baltimore has no pass defense. And Joe Flacco(notes) is not there yet.
The Chargers are a sleeping giant. They are moving steadily up my defensive rankings. At least Norv Turner is running less. They have the best stable of wideouts in football and a very good QB, who actually might be great. The Chargers will win this week, I’m fairly certain, by at least a TD. They’re super charging right now. (Did you know they got their name because their first AFL owner made his fortune hawking credit cards? That Showtime special on the AFL was FANTASTIC and we didn’t give it enough – any? – Breakfast juice.)
I’d like to enjoy the Pats-Colts without feeling I have a stake in the outcome. But that’s the drawback to being a pro, I guess. So, if I must: Colts 31, Patriots 26.
From: Scott Pianowski
Date: Thu, Nov 12, 2009 at 11:57 PM
Subject: east coast offense
To: Michael Salfino
Gruden grunts better and makes a better scowl, I’ll give you that. But Collinsworth is much more insightful. The frustrating thing is that we know Gruden has a tremendous amount of insight, but we’re not hearing very much of it.
The Steelers look like the best team in football right now. And everyone loves Mike Wallace, except for Limas Sweed(notes), I suppose.
Our buddy Mark Stopa points out that the Bengals have a negative net YPA on the season, a stunner for a team that’s 6-2 and beaten some good clubs. I still think Cincinnati is legit; I like their corners, Cedric Benson is legit, and it’s the first time Carson Palmer has looked back to normal since before the knee blowout. But Pittsburgh has too many things working right now. Steelers 27, Bengals 21.
I’m not sold on the NFC East. Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning(notes), these are week-to-week guys. With Romo it’s mechanics, with McNabb it’s accuracy, with Eli, I don’t know, ask Liss. The Giants offense hasn’t looked the same since Manning got dinged up (or maybe it’s Ahmad Bradshaw’s(notes) foot). New York is in the middle of the pass-defense stats, and the pass rush hasn’t been consistent; said another way, no one is afraid of this defense.
My eyes tell me Dallas isn’t getting it done at the goal line and your stats say it too. Don’t small-sample me, we’re in the second week of November. It’s going to cost them eventually. Philadelphia and Dallas have the same problem on offense, too much reliance on the big play. When’s the last time Marian Barber really scared anyone? I have a funny feeling Green Bay picks Dallas off this week.
I don’t have a strong read on the Pats and Colts, and like you I’d prefer to watch it without a dug-in opinion. At the end of the day trusting the Patriots defense is a speculation play. I know what Peyton Manning can do. I still don’t think Tom Brady is all the way back, he left some points on the field last week (thrashing the Titans in the snow is nice, but it doesn’t necessarily translate here). Call it Colts by 3, though the AFC becomes a lot more fun if the Patriots win.
I better send this in before it’s intercepted by the 49ers.
