Breakfast Table: Halfway home

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From: Michael Salfino
Date: Wed, Nov 4, 2009 at 10:26 AM
Subject: Mid-Season Breakfast
To: Scott Pianowski

I got an early birthday present this week when Sean Payton decided to give Pierre Thomas(notes) that late TD, which was HUGE in my fantasy place with the most, um, “units” on the line. Nothing like holding your breath and hoping that the coach sticks in a guy who’s averaging about six yards per carry this year. When did Payton become Mike Shanahan, exactly?

We’re at the halfway point and the season still feels young to me. I’m doing my Jets Report Card for SNY.tv and I put together the full team power ranks for that purpose. I do the offensive and defensive ones every week for Yahoo! and some others. But this is the first time I’m really ranking overall teams since Week 4. So let’s look at who has moved the most since then. Also, there are always just a couple of teams that align in ways that defy their actual records. I’ll note them, too.

The Patriots have moved up from playoff team to Super Bowl contender. I guess we shouldn’t be surprised. They’re third overall. The Colts, though, have moved up even more, from 12th to second (behind the Saints, who I have as one-point favorites against Indy on a neutral field – say, in February). The Texans have climbed from 25th to 13th – right between Pittsburgh and Cincy. My Jets have moved way down – from eighth to 17th. Atlanta has also sunk like a stone – from 13th (which I thought was unkind back then) to, get ready, 24th?

Nothing else is radically different. Top 10 today, in order: Saints, Colts, Patriots, Packers, Vikings, Broncos, Cowboys, Eagles, Ravens and Giants. Minny, Denver and Dallas are all tied. The Packers? Being No. 1 in net picks helps them. Rodgers has only thrown two and that’s amazing considering he’s been dumped 31 times already. Green Bay is lucky I’ve taken sacks out of the index (it’s still factored into net yards per play). You know, Green Bay ranked very highly in these numbers last year, too, relative to actual record. Do we blame the coach or the QB or both? Is Rodgers just a stat guy?

Bottom 10: Browns, Raiders, Chiefs, Rams, Bucs, Lions, Titans, Panthers , Falcons and Seahawks. Atlanta is 19th in net red zone possessions, 22nd in net yards per play, 24th in net interception rate, 24th in net third down rate. What are we missing? Or do they stink? Mid-season Breakfast is served.

From: Scott Pianowski
Date: Thu, Nov 5, 2009 at 2:31 PM
Subject: Re: Mid-Season Breakfast
To: Michael Salfino

Shanahan gets a bad rap, he never buried his best back like Payton is doing (don’t Tatum Bell(notes) me, Tater was out of the league in 15 seconds). When aliens invade the planet, they’ll identify Pierre Thomas as the Heisman winner who now plays for the Saints.

I don’t know what to make of the Patriots. I don’t like any of the running backs and the offensive line has been overrated for years. Randy Moss(notes) is just another good receiver right now, not someone teams are petrified of (you’re going to laugh at me but Wes Welker(notes) is more important to their scheme). How much credit does New England deserve for kicking the absolute tar out of Tennessee and Tampa Bay? The Pats are headed for an interesting five-game slate, three division games (the Miami deuce and the Jets payback game) along with trips to Indy and New Orleans.

Tell your computer that the Steelers defense is a completely different animal now that Troy Polamalu(notes) is back.The impact of any single defender is generally overblown, but not in this case. Still, it’s a little ridiculous to me that the Steelers are three-point favorites on the road at Denver; anyone who wants to pick Pittsburgh has to pay a luxury tax.

Maybe you should put sacks back in there. A sack isn’t just a loss of yardage for the offense, it’s a hit on the quarterback, it’s a kick in the offense’s stomach, it gets a crowd back into the game, it often brings a fumble along for the ride. I have absolutely zero data to back this up, but I’d guess most teams with a notable-sack advantage are winning teams.

Can you give us the Psychology Today view on the Cardinals? How do you beat down the Giants in Jersey, then turn around and get pasted at home to the Panthers?

There’s no way the Falcons belong down there with the Sweathogs. All three of their losses were to good teams. Matt Ryan(notes) was a little rattled in the Superdome but he’ll figure it out. They’ll need to outscore people, but there’s too many things I like about this offense. It’s just a shame they don’t have a reliable No. 2 receiver.

From: Michael Salfino
Date: Thu, Nov 5, 2009 at 3:03 PM
Subject: Re: Mid-Season Breakfast
To: Scott Pianowski

“Shanahan” was the worst fantasy slander I could think up, unless I go to baseball and say that the Saints are “Twinning” Thomas.

I see your point about Welker. But without Moss clearing things out, and teams still respect him, Welker would be much less effective. You’re going Owens 2008 with Moss 2009 I gather. Well, it looks like you were right then and maybe you’re right now, too.

You’re right about the Patriots schedule, too. Their big tests are to come. They spit the bit in Denver. But that was all during the re-entry phase for Brady. Factoring schedules is a pain this year because there are so many more bad teams. Plus the assumption when a good team plays a bad team is that the good team performs better. But sometimes, I think, they perform worse. If you’re playing the Lions this week and you’re a normal good team and not some proven champ like the Patriots, are you going to bring your A-game? Human nature says no. If you’re not playing with a little bit of fear to get that heart racing, you’re not playing your best.

Speaking of Steelers safeties, is Ryan Clark(notes) really going to defy death and try to play in the high altitude (he has a sickle-cell trait)? I know the NFL is a macho culture and I know that players feel like they are dead when they aren’t playing due to injury because they’re treated like they don’t exist. Even Brady said the amazing thing to him was that Matt Cassel(notes) came in for the next play and the team just moved right along without him.

I like sacks as an indicator. I went out of my way to include them in the offensive ranks, too. So I gather you do not think the Packers are underachieving due to true ability because the sack picture is a major part of this calculation. It is factored into Yards Per Play, though, and even third down net. I’m always arguing with myself over this stuff. My bottom line: Rodgers hasn’t shown an ability to make the critical play at the critical time. Green Bay doesn’t have a bad defense. Why doesn’t Rodgers win more? Yes, I used to say the same thing about Drew Brees(notes), too. Brees never had happy feet like Rodgers though.

The Cardinals? Here’s what the Power Index says. They’re 19th. That says 3-4 team. So, I don’t think they’re underachieving. The Cardinals were bad at the end of last year, got hot at the perfect time like the 2007 Giants and almost rode that to a title. The Chargers could do that this year, seriously. About 10 or 15 teams could. Mediocre teams upset teams all the time if you give them enough chances. And the Giants are reeling, obviously, too.

Ryan is good, not great – yet. The Falcons offense is similar (your quality is almost always reflected by the quality of your QB). I don’t believe in the Atlanta defense at all. They’re like the Cardinals, don’t you think? In the mix, but not bona fide. They’re in the middle tier of teams that needs a bunch of things to break right at the right time. So I think their ranking is just mildy unfair – they should be 15-to-20, not 23. I do wish the Steelers were higher. And I definitely wish the Packers were lower. Now close up shop. You know what I hate? Teacher Convention week. I get the kids for two more days and the teachers don’t even go to the flippin’ convention.

From: Scott Pianowski
Date: Thu, Nov 5, 2009 at 5:53 PM
Subject: Re: Mid-Season Breakfast
To: Michael Salfino

The common link between Shanahan and Payton: Mike Bell(notes). At least we’re finally spared the burden of Malcom Floyd(notes) behind Chris Chambers(notes), though the Chargers may have cut Chambers due to off-the-field issues.

Did you catch Roy Williams this week? He’s basically claiming that Tony Romo(notes) throws accurate passes to all the other chaps but not to him. It’s time to demand the Roy Williams Reality Show, where the pizza guys don’t get tipped and Williams always sees a Pro Bowl difference-maker when he looks in the mirror.

A few random thoughts and predictions which you can debunk in the comments (the table never really ends, leftovers are served all week): I’m worried Matt Schaub(notes) is going to hit a major rough patch now that Owen Daniels(notes) is out for the season. … I think the Titans might be able to coax a Top 20 quarterback season out of Vince Young(notes) (okay, I’m not aiming very high, but there’s utility to that level in two-QB groups). … The Broncos are headed for a fall if they don’t add more intermediate and deep passing to their playbook. … The Ravens will be one of the Final Four teams standing in January. … I get a little queasy admitting it, but Brett Favre(notes) is a legitimate MVP candidate right now. I’d still go with Drew Brees, but I don’t see how Favre isn’t in the Top 5. … If you were starting a new franchise from scratch tomorrow, where is Matt Ryan on your board?