Breakfast Table: Mixed signal callers

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From: Scott Pianowski
Date: Wed, Oct 28, 2009 at 3:06 PM
Subject: front-running breakfast
To: Michael Salfino

Looks like there’s plenty to dish on as we hit Week 8.

Parity is dead, fact or fiction? We see this path in NFL circles all the time – the Chicken Littles scream that the sky is falling, then the contrarians tilt their noses up and debunk it all. But last week in Vegas, the sky really was falling – favorites continue to run wild to the delight of squares everywhere. Where is this headed?

Brett Favre(notes) back in Green Bay; how do Packers fans react now that he’s already ripped their hearts out once this year? Ah, screw that, who wins and why?

What’s going to stop this Saints juggernaut? They didn’t play anywhere near their peak and they still put 46 up on the Dolphins. Can Atlanta hang with them on Monday night?

The Ravens still strike me as one of the better clubs around but at 3-3 they’re in a desperation way and now they face the undefeated Broncos. Does Baltimore come out strong after the bye, or do the Broncos get out the shovel and bury them?

Some interesting player turnover this week – the Bucs are changing quarterbacks, the Panthers aren’t ready yet, the Titans owner pushed for for Vince Young(notes), the Chargers are the last team to figure out that Malcom Floyd(notes) is better than Chris Chambers(notes). What should a winless team be angling for right now, some victories or player development? Maybe constant interaction with a player muddies the process; maybe you can be too close to a situation and not see the reality of it. What took the Cowboys so long to unearth Miles Austin(notes)?

Settle in with a sideline hotdog and let’s sort this out. Add extra condiments as you see fit.

From: Michael Salfino
Date: Wed, Oct 28, 2009 at 4:05 PM
Subject: Re: front-running breakfast
To: Scott Pianowski

We talk about how there’s a lot of depth at QB from a fantasy perspective, but look at who is helming the bad teams. The QB position is unsettled in Cleveland, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Tennesee, St. Louis, Buffalo, San Francisco (I know you are bullish about Alex Smith; I am not) and Kansas City (worst $60 million ever spent in the NFL on Matt Cassel(notes)?) … And there are question marks in Miami, New York (the Jets, not the Giants, though Eli Manning(notes) continues to be impossible to project).

The Vikings are solid offensively and defensively. I’m shocked by how they shut down that Steelers passing game outside of that one first-half two-minute drill without Antoine Winfield(notes). I don’t like their pass protection – Favre’s been sacked 18 times, which is too many. But they are tough to defend now with those wideouts emerging and with Adrian Peterson becoming a factor even out of the backfield in the passing game. The Packers defense was really abused in the first meeting and I can’t see the home-field advantage changing things that much. Plus I like watching Favre this year – shoot me. The Vikings are a fun team with good players everywhere on offense and a pass rush, too. Most popular Madden teams right now (based on online sessions): Eagles, Steelers, Cowboys, Vikings, Chargers. Why the Eagles? Vick is, I guess, far more dangerous on the XBox than in real life.

The Saints scored two defensive TDs, but had 414 yards, which supports your general point. The NFL math is one point for every 15 yards from scrimmage, on average, so they earned 28 – still a good day. Of course, Tony Sparano handed them the TD at the end of the first half instead of letting them kick the field goal. 24-6 is a lot better than 24-10.

I thought Sparano had a bad game. The Dolphins didn’t try to run it conventionally in the second half. The Wildcat gave them 30 yards on 13 attempts as the Saints blitzed their corners against it every time. That forces the back into the middle unless the back can throw. But Ronnie Brown(notes) has not proven that he can throw. So the Wildcat might be dead other than in short yardage, where it’s very tough to stop.

Baltimore’s problem is that they are resisting being the team they are. This is a passing offense that has to cover up a weak pass defense and forget the smashmouth stuff on both sides of the ball. But they’re still trapped in Ray Lewis(notes) Land.

I’m with you on Floyd and Chambers, but that’s of marginal real-life significance. The QB situations are huge. But those teams are all hopeless. Who are the Panthers turning to? A.J. Feeley(notes)? Please. Vince Young has little chance after last season’s off-field episode. I’ve never been as wrong about a guy than I was about Young, but that will teach me what I preach – you never know anything about a QB until he proves it in the pros. Young can’t throw and seems to have lost much of his running juice. I wouldn’t want to be learning on the job in Tampa Bay, Josh Freeman(notes).

From: Scott Pianowski
Date: Thu, Oct 29, 2009 at 4:39 PM
Subject: Re: front-running breakfast
To: Michael Salfino

To be clear, it’s more a “why not?” play on Alex Smith than a gushing endorsement. He might just be a mirage from the Urban Meyer laboratory. But I like the weapons he’s got there (Vernon Davis(notes) has exploded and man did Michael Crabtree(notes) look polished last week) and it’s not like this team can run the ball behind that offensive line. You never want to take too much from a relief appearance – in a lot of ways it’s a false context – but Smith’s rally at Houston should at least buy him a month to show what he can do. I like the schedule after this week’s sacrifice at Indianapolis.

Pass blocking should tell the story in Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers(notes) was running for his life in Round 1, albeit he ran into a few sacks himself. You astutely point out that the Vikings can’t really pass block either (this dates back to the first half of the Detroit game). I really want to go Purple here – Minnesota might have the best collection of skill players in the league – but beware the desperate team, especially when its at home. The Pack takes it in a close, high-scoring thriller.

It’s hard to figure why the Eagles bothered to sign Vick. The Philly Wildcat package is embarrassingly mediocre. Andy Reid’s offense has basically made two plays in two weeks, and with Brian Westbrook(notes) iffy for Sunday, this looks like a prime time for the Giants to pick them off. Kudos for your Brandon Jacobs(notes) buy order, that looks like money now that Ahmad Bradshaw(notes) has a cracked bone in his foot.

Baltimore’s offense against Denver’s defense might be the most intriguing matchup of the week. Ray Rice(notes) isn’t a conventional featured back but he’s a special talent. I’d feel better about Joe Flacco(notes) if he had one dangerous outside receiver. Elvis Dumervil(notes) might be the Defensive Player of the Year to this point, depending on what you do with Darren Sharper(notes) and his endless parade into the end zone. All of Baltimore’s losses go straight to the nightmare file, they’re five minutes from being 6-0. With Edgar Allen Poe looking down on them, here’s a vote that says they win on Halloween weekend.

Count me in with all of these young and emerging wideouts, Miles Austin, Mike Sims-Walker(notes), Sidney Rice(notes). With Walker, it was just a case of keeping him healthy. We knew Rice had a high ceiling, but it was never going to come out with Tavaris Jackson (sorry, Kubi-ack). Austin’s breakthrough is a little more out of left field, though a lot of respected scouts liked him in the offseason and there’s a certain amount of signature significance to a 421-yard explosion over two games. Drew Bennett(notes) is now the baseline, and I think he’ll turn out to be better than that.

Free Malcom Floyd!

Maybe it’s the matchups and maybe it’s a Vegas correction but there are currently six favorites that are laying 10 or more this week. Here’s our slate of expected blowouts: San Diego spots 17 to Oakland, Chicago gives 13 to Cleveland, Dallas lays 10 to Seattle, Indy favored by 13 over the Niners, Arizona gives 10 to Carolina, New Orleans spots 10 to Atlanta. It’s worth noting that the favorites that covered the big numbers last week did so easily. When does the favorite bubble end? At least we’re spared from watching the Chiefs (tweet, tweet), Bucs and Redskins this week (Washington’s going with the blackjack offense; nothing over hard 17).

Did a quick glance at the league’s passing stats and I was stunned that so many QBs are rated at 100-plus. Sure, it’s a stat with fleas, but I guess I hadn’t realized it had become so ridiculously easy to chuck the ball down the field. A rating in the mid-80s used to get you a pat on the back. Now, you’re one bad half away from the hot seat.

From: Michael Salfino
Date: Thu, Oct 29, 2009 at 11:32 PM
Subject: Re: front-running breakfast
To: Scott Pianowski

Do you buy the Colts as the best pass defense in football? Their first in sack percentage, which I find shocking. They had that bend but don’t break, let’s frustrate QBs into forcing something vibe for years but now they’re more conventionally dominant, say the stats.

I can’t forgive Alex Smith all of his transgressions based on a relief appearance. QBs who step in during the game are pretty loosey-goosey. Now, though, he has to digest the game plan and and prepare and ultimately toe that fine line between thinking and just playing. I remember seeing film of Bill Parcells on the sideline talking to Jeff Hostetler after Phil Simms got hurt and telling him, “Just go out there and play like you’ve been doing all your life. Like you used to do in your backyard.” When you have the time to think about everything that goes into the position, it’s overwhelming.

By the way, I really like what Rex Ryan did with Mark Sanchez(notes) last week off that nightmare game against the Bills when he threw five picks. He called him in and sat him down and told him he wanted him to play like this – cue the Joe Montana highlights. But then he mixed in highlights of Sanchez doing all the things that Montana was doing, from high school through USC and even earlier this year with the Jets. To me, that’s coaching. Managing people. Getting them to believe in themselves. Helping them win that inner monologue. Maybe Mike Singletary can find the switch in Alex Smith and that can turn Smith’s career around. But what is Smith after the shoulder surgery?

It’s a shame there’s no Sunday night game because I’d like the Vikings and Packers to fly solo so I can focus on it very intently. I think the Vikings have Super Bowl mettle. But I guess that means you must go into New Orleans and win. Or is it too early to crown a conference No. 1 seed. You did mention that easy Saints schedule. The only game left for the Saints where they might conceivably be an underdog is at Atlanta in Week 14. The Saints, undefeated? Wow. I never saw this coming back in August.

Yes, I’m a genius for the Jacobs tout, except I drafted Bradshaw in one of your mid-season things knowing that he was in a boot during the week but foolishly thinking that it would all magically get better – like I used to hope my ’74 Volvo would just fix itself and not need that rebuilt engine before I graduated college. With Jacobs an ever-present injury risk, you have to go out and get Danny Ware(notes) if you have deep reserves. The Eagles do nothing well on offense and those big plays are going to dry up. So I do expect the Giants and Manning to bounce back. But the Giants are really doubting themselves right now, too. One of those teams is fading away by 4 pm ET on Sunday.

Yes, Denver at Baltimore will be great. But the clock is about to strike midnight for the Broncos and especially Kyle Orton(notes). Denver finishes 10-6. The Chargers still win the AFC West.

Here’s a piece on Vegas going down like James Caan in “The Gambler,” which really is an underrated classic. But why are the Saints being given such respect. A 10-spot against the Falcons is Vegas getting on its knees and just begging you to bet against the Saints. It’s almost a 2007 Patriots kind of line.

You know who has the most deceiving QB rating for the year (and for a career)? Jason Campbell(notes). He does all the things that QB rating likes – avoids big mistakes, complete meaningless passes, take the checkdown. But he doesn’t score points. Maybe instead of focusing on TD passes, the QB rating formula should factor in TD drives that the QB helms regardless of how the points are scored.

From: Scott Pianowski
Date: Fri, Oct 30, 2009 at 11:36 AM
Subject: pretty boy (malcom) floyd
To: Michael Salfino

The Colts are getting a great pass rush from their ends, which is the quickest way to make any pass defense look good. It also seems like the new regime is calling the game more aggressively, but that’s what my eyes are telling me as a screened outsider, I have no proof that it’s true.

Of course we can’t forgive Alex Smith for one good half, no one’s suggesting that. There’s no Day of Atonement in the NFL. This is the second act of his career, and I suppose there’s a 10-15 percent chance this turns into a Jim Plunkett story. The pressure is off, no one is expecting him to save the franchise now. Maybe he responds to it.

I fully agree that it’s important to play loose (but not recklessly) and all of your Campbell critiques hit the mark. You watch Campbell in the first half of any game and it’s clear he’s petrified to make a mistake. Limiting errors is a nice idea in theory, but you can’t go that route at the expense of explosive plays. I did like the Campbell I saw in the fourth quarter against Philly – finally some downfield throws – but I’ve never liked his pocket awareness, and without that, you can’t be a capable starter in this league.

The Chargers aren’t winning the AFC West, not with that defense, not with a 3.5-game deficit and not with Norv Turner. They’re not chasing the Shanahan Broncos; the 2009 Broncos can actually stop people. The teeth of Denver’s schedule kicks in this week but they’ll still get to 10 or 11 wins by accident. That’s too much ground for Philip Rivers(notes) to make up all by himself.