Moving Without the Ball

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It’s a favorite pastime of Moving Without the Ball to examine the true value of the league’s hottest and, I suppose, ‘not-est’ fantasy ballers. For me there’s more value in talking about which players you should buy low on as opposed to obsessing over which sell-high candidates you need to move.

If you can deal Danilo Gallinari(notes) for Tony Parker(notes), great. I’m not in the business, however, of moving Gallinari unless the trade is just too great to pass up. Why sell high in this scenario when we don’t know what Gallo’s true value is? Am I trading this season’s Devin Harris(notes) (breakout stud) for a ‘steady as he goes’ point guard? We don’t know that yet. I’d prefer not to burn myself because of lack of information.

I’d much rather move a guy like Mike Bibby(notes) for Tony Parker. In this scenario, neither are playing particularly well, but I know that Parker is playing well beneath his value (playing just 29 minutes per game early on) thanks to a slow start, while Bibby is playing below his value thanks in part to Jamal Crawford(notes) stepping in and taking those minutes away from him. We know what each can do so it’s safer to move on this scenario than on one in which the guy you’re giving up has yet to define his ceiling.

This will make more sense when I give you a number of players who you should buy-low on and what kind of value you’d have to ship off to your opponent. Here are a few worth targeting while the getting is good.

I’ll add in each player’s current ranking in 8-category Yahoo! leagues as a frame of reference.

BUY-LOW

Danny Granger(notes) (SG/SF/PF, IND) No. 104 – I got an e-mail the other day from a reader asking me whether or not said e-mailer should accept a trade in which he would receive Danny Granger in exchange for Tim Duncan(notes). I used my ‘caps lock’ and responded with an upper-case “YES.” It seems that Granger and his heel problem might have a few owners shaking in their boots. Add to that the fact that he plays on a team that almost nobody outside of Indiana tunes in to watch and that he has the least ‘sexy’ name in the top 10, and you might be able to pry him away for the right price. Granger has his problems, as I noted above (injury, plays for a fairly bad team), but he’s a bona fide fantasy stud. This might be your only chance to snag Granger at a low cost, so take advantage of the opportunity if you can.

Jason Kidd(notes) (PG, DAL) No. 63 – It really was his last two performances that vaulted him back into the top 100 – 14.5 points, eight assists, five rebounds, 4.5 treys, and one steal per game. Kidd is starting to come around. We never expected him to score more than 10 points per game, so anything above that is an added bonus. You take on J-Kidd for how complete his game is, knowing also that he’s not the most efficient shooter from the floor. Why not try and upgrade on a guy like Baron Davis(notes) for a more reliable option like Kidd who hasn’t missed more than two games in any of the past four seasons.

John Salmons(notes) (SG/SF, CHI) No. 133 – Wasn’t Salmons supposed to lead the Bulls in scoring now that Ben Gordon(notes) is no longer in Chicago? I don’t think 11.2 points per game is going to cut it. He’s off to a slow start. Give it some time and Salmons will be right back in the top 50. There’s no way an efficient scorer like Salmons (career 44.5 FG%) shoots below 30 percent from the field or 19.2 percent from beyond the arc on the season. Better numbers are in store. And if he continues to steal 2.2 balls per game, or at least near two steals per, then you’ll be tapping into a category that Salmons has lagged behind in the years past. I recently traded Marvin Williams(notes) for Salmons in one of my leagues. Salmons could realistically lead the Bulls in steals, threes, and challenge Luol Deng(notes) for the most points on his team. Can’t say the same thing about Williams on his own team.

Andre Miller(notes) (PG, POR) No. 179 – What timeshare? Nate McMillan said the other day that he wants Miller to get more aggressive playing with the second unit. How’s that for a vote of confidence? You have to think that Kevin Pritchard will step in eventually and convince McMillan to get Andre Miller in the starting lineup. How much money did they spend this summer on bringing in Miller? (A rhetorical question – the answer’s $21 million, to be exact.) Steve Blake(notes) and Andre Miller are essentially splitting the time at the point guard down the middle, but we’re we’re starting to hear a slightly different tune coming out of Portland. McMillan is now blaming himself for Miller’s slow start. He’s actually considering putting ‘Dre Miller in the starting lineup, thinking that his “funk” is a product of him coming off the bench and not starting. I would love to get Miller on my team, especially if he starts dishing to the the finishers the Blazers have in their starting five. It might be time to make the move on Miller before he gets slotted into the starting lineup, where he belongs.

Anthony Randolph(notes) (PF, GSW) No. 196 – He’s by far one of the most difficult players to own. The expectations were through the roof for Randolph, but with Don Nelson calling the shots in Golden State we may not see the spectacular Randolph we were hoping to see when we spent a seventh-round draft pick on him. Fear not. It’s hard to keep a talent like this down for long. Nelson has talked about using Randolph at center, and with Andris Biedrins(notes) battling a sore back we might see him get some playing time sooner than later. Don’t mortgage your team’s future on bringing in Randolph, but there are plenty of owners who’ve had enough with his lack of court time and might be willing to give him up for next to nothing. I just grabbed him off the waiver wires in one of my leagues for the 13th man on my team. Not a bad price to pay for a guy with his upside.

Tyrus Thomas(notes) (PF, CHI) No. 165 – I’m not buying the Taj Gibson(notes) experiment in Chicago. There may be plenty of ‘behind the scenes’ talk going on between the Bulls front office in regards to Tyrus Thomas’ future with the team, but it’s certainly not in their best interest to bring him off the bench for 12 minutes per game. Not if they want to trade him and get back some value in return. Thomas most likely won’t be in Chicago next season, so it would do the Bulls some good to showcase his talents and not throw him under the bus. Thomas has the ability to finish in the top 5 in the league in blocks, while adding 15 points and eight rebounds along the way. Again, still not buying Thomas coming off the bench. It neither benefits the Bulls or Thomas to pout about his contract situation when he needs to convince another team to pick up the bill for his services. Make a move for Thomas while his value is likely at the lowest it will get this season. You can offer up another struggling baller with a more ‘attractive’ name, such as Corey Maggette(notes). That might just do the trick.

Raymond Felton(notes) (PG, CHA) No. 269 – To me this is strictly a case of a player on a bad team getting off to a slow start. Felton showed some promise on Oct. 30 against the Knicks (22 points, nine assists, eight rebounds, two steals), but since then it’s been all downhill. All the more reason to buy low. Felton is in a contract year and I imagine that the dollar signs are going to start swimming around his head – for better or for worse. He’s never been an efficient scorer, but his 37.7-percent is even poor by his standards. Also, his .08:1 assist-to-turnover ratio is just downright awful. Felton is not this bad. Chalk it up to the hard fall he had against the Celtics or the lack of talent around him in Charlotte if you’d like. But given his current price-tag (insert any player with two hot games under his belt here), Felton could be a steal and a real asset once he puts it all together.

OTHERS TO TARGET

Pau Gasol(notes) (PF/C, LAL) No. 359 – No better time to make the move for a fantasy superstar than the weekend he’s slated to return. You’re not going to get him for nothing, but with his value this low you might be able to move someone like David West(notes) or Marcus Camby(notes) to get the All-Star big.

Jose Calderon(notes) (PG, TOR) No. 204 – It’s looking like we might have overvalued Calderon coming into this season. It seems that he’s having a hard time playing alongside Hedo Turkoglu(notes). Calderon is far too good of a basketball player to just drop off our radar. He may not be a top 25 baller, but he’s no worse than 50 players in this league. Don’t pay too high of a price to get the Spaniard, but see if you can steal him from a fed-up owner.

Jason Richardson(notes) (SG/SF, PHO) No. 158 – Perfect timing. Richardson was held scoreless on Wednesday night against the Magic. But we can look past that game. It was a terrible showing all around for the Phoenix Suns. Richardson can go off and score 20-plus points on a given night. While Leandro Barbosa(notes) is out of the lineup, the Suns are married to Richardson at the ‘two’ for now. After a big fat zero, you should be able to get him for the proverbial bag of balls.

If you’d like to reach Tom you can send him an email at Lorenzo@RotoExperts.com. Or follow his Tweet stream on Twitter: @RotoLorenzo.

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