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Closing Time: Raining in Baltimore

Scott Pianowski — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 00:33:35 PDT

Forget the stats and the standings for a moment - let's go to the weather satellite. Our normally-full Saturday slate is about to be compromised.

Tropical Storm Hanna touches down the Eastern Seaboard this weekend and could wash out the double-header with Baltimore and Oakland Saturday (in addition to action in other parks). Sunday isn't an option for the Baltimore games (the Ravens opener is the reason Saturday's twin-ball came in the first place), so our cutesy plan to stream like crazy here might wash down the drain. Make a couple of extra minutes if you can and be alert with those last-minute choices.

If you have to set things up in advance, I'd assume they won't play two in Baltimore, and they might not even play one. But I'm no weatherman and I never played one on TV. I'm not promising anything. (If the games do float away, make sure you don't blame this chick. She had nothing to do with it.)

Okay, let's head back to the field:

• I feel a little cheesy burying the Brandon Morrow starting debut behind a weather update, but he's been documented in this blog plenty (tip your cap to Bradley). I hope you caught some of the video of his electric start against the Yanks, it was time well spent. Morrow took a no-hitter into the eighth, settling for a one-hit gem over 7.2 innings (1 R, 3 BB, 8 K); we knew he had power stuff, but we also saw a darting curveball from him Friday. His excited teammates doused Morrow in beer while he met the media; baby, you're a big star now. "When you have stuff like that and you can locate with that stuff, you're going to shut down a lot of lineups," an impressed Joe Girardi told the AP.

The schedule lines up nicely for Morrow down the stretch: he'll get the Angels once (who have little incentive these days), then a super-friendly finish (one KC turn, two against Oakland). This guy better not be sitting on your waiver wire 24 hours from now.

• I have nothing to say about the Carlos Quentin news (wrist surgery Monday) except "man, that sucks for his owners." Oh, and for White Sox fans. Did Chicago tick off the Baseball Gods or something the last week or two? Nick Swisher and Ken Griffey Jr. pick up more time with Quentin out, not that mixed leaguers can do much with them. There's a chance Quentin could make it back at the end of the month, but that sounds awfully optimistic to me.

• Look-aheads usually help fantasy owners more than look-backs, and here's one to consider for Sunday: Milwaukee's base stealers. The Brewers are second in the NL in steals since the All-Star Break (trailing just the Willy Taveras-led Rockies), and Chris Young, San Diego's starting pitcher, might be the easiest guy to run on in the league. Heck, when Young last worked in Milwaukee (late in 2007), Prince Fielder stole two bases. Use this info as you see fit.

• Sticking with the look-ahead theme, some possible streamers for Sunday in no particular order: John Lannan at Atlanta (look at the Braves lineup); Glen Perkins versus Detroit (tough assignment, but home cooking helps); Manny Parra against San Diego; and for the brave and crazy, Jorge De La Rosa, in Coors, against Houston (hey, he's pitching well, and I don't trust Wandy Rodriguez on the road).

• Speed Round: Fives were wild for Andre Ethier, who also clubbed his 20th homer in the rout of Arizona. Looks like he's intent on blowing his cover for 2009 . . . Rajai Davis got a lot done in just two innings Friday, all things considered . . . It's been 10 years since Toad the Wet Sprocket broke up. I'm still a little sad about that . . . Two more hits for Jeff Keppinger, swinging nicely and producing in the No. 2 slot, between Chris Dickerson and Brandon Phillips . . . If you trusted Bronson Arroyo's strikeout-walk rate and ignored the other stuff, you've been rewarded with a pretty nifty second half (seven wins, 50 strikeouts, 3.13 ERA). He gets his first 2008 start against Milwaukee next week . . . Mike Aviles is 6-for-15 since he took a pitch off his finger, so no one worry here . . . Derek Lowe is still money at home, Francisco Liriano's reinvention tour continues to hum (a season-high nine strikeouts), and Josh Beckett's return at Texas went very smooth . . . Nightly hockey cooler: Matt Romig's Big Board is fresh out of the oven . . . Romig's presence in the San Francisco yard Friday night apparently helped his beloved Buccos: Zach Duke spun a six-hit shutout, Ryan Doumit lashed four hits, and Pittsburgh rolled to an easy victory.

• Anthony Reyes left his Friday start in the fourth inning due to a tight elbow; he had some problems getting loose prior to the start. He was ahead 2-0 at the time and the Indians went on to cruise to an easy victory, so it's a shame he couldn't continue. "It was just a little stiff," Reyes told the AP. "I thought it would loosen up, it just never did. I'm just being careful and decided to give it a break today." It was a better night for his battery mate; Victor Martinez made his return to the catching spot and went 2-for-3 with a pair of walks, scoring twice and knocking in one.

• An extra tip Andy Behrens wanted to throw out to the masses - make sure you're giving a good look to waived players when you're hunting free agents. The quality of drops often increases at this time of year; sometimes it's a category-driven thing, or perhaps the opposing owner thinks can use the free-agent wire as a temporary stash area because half the league isn't paying attention. Be sure to give this list a regular audit. (I missed Randy Winn in the Y! Friends & Family League just the other day.)

• Handshakes and near-misses: Brad Lidge (34) doesn't blow saves in 2008, as you know. His scoreless frame followed another eight-inning beauty from Brett Myers, and just like that, the Phillies are just two back of the Mets . . . B.J. Ryan (27) wasn't perfect, but he was good enough in back of Doc Holliday . . . Everyone in the Florida bullpen did their job, with Matt Lindstrom getting the glory stat in the 11th. Chris Perez took the rap on the other side, blowing his second straight save on a Mike Jacobs homer . . . CC Sabathia was in line for another win but he just went seven against San Diego, and Eric Gagne coughed up the lead in the eighth . . . Brian Fuentes (27) continues to remind us why so much of the pre-deadline trade talk is misleading and utterly worthless. Quietly, the Rockies are hanging around . . . J.J. Putz (11) didn't strike anyone out, but he retired three of four and secured the Morrow victory.

• Brad Evans is trying out for the Winnipeg Blue Bombers Saturday, so I'll be your Weekly Rundown host this week. Do not go gentle into this good Rotisserie night - there's still time to catapult some teams in the standings.

Tip Drill: What's in my wallet

Scott Pianowski — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 16:51:16 PDT

I'm not going to count how many leagues I'm in this year, I don't want to know the answer. But let's take a quick look at what's in the portfolio.

At the beginning of every baseball and football season, I roll out the "What's In My Wallet" piece, a tally sheet of the players I hoarded this year. Sometimes there are home runs (Nate McLouth 2008, Frank Gore 2006), sometimes there are crash landings (Felix Hernandez 2007, Skip Hicks 1999), and sometimes the verdict lies in the middle (Andre Johnson, 2007).

For better or for worse, for richer or for poorer, most of the guys below will define the success of my season (unless I hit a bunch of blackjacks in free agency, which I will of course try to do):

The 20 players I selected the most this summer, in order of frequency:

• Kevin Walter: Locked in with his QB and generally won't get the opponent's best coverage. Modest ADP makes him priced for profit.

• Tim Hightower: Already has goal-line responsibility and I have no long-term faith in Edgerrin James. Actually, I have no short-term faith in James, either.

• Matt Forte: Set-up worries me but he's an every-down guy.

• Seahawks Defense: Especially nasty at home and they get some weak opponents to pick on.

• Chris Cooley: I'm worried about the set-up, but never about him.

• Josh Morgan: Someone will go 75-1000-8 here, maybe it's Morgan, though general rookie WR skepticism applies. He was free in most leagues so if I need to drop him early in the year, no big deal.

• Jaguars Defense: It's a context position and I expect them to win the division.

• Randy Moss: I fell in the middle of a lot of drafts, and I'd rather take Moss than drop a level at RB.

• Eli Manning: Was surprisingly affordable all summer, you could almost name your own price. I am not saying he's an elite quarterback, just a solid one.

• Jamal Lewis: A lot of the picks came before the August crash, but I still see a safe floor here.

• Ryan Longwell: Defense and run-based offense sets up a nice baseline.

• Donovan McNabb: He's still great when he plays and Andy Reid will always call a ton of pass plays.

• Wes Welker: If he keeps 85-90 percent of last year it's an easy profit.

• Jerious Norwood: Clueless old staff is done, new regime should use him liberally.

• Bryant Johnson: See Josh Morgan. I'll bet on these guys, you take the field in San Francisco.

• Ladell Betts: Just one Clinton Portis ding away from being pretty valuable, and he was dirt cheap everywhere. Remember the run in 2006?

• Leon Washington: Trusting that the Jets will finally start using him properly.

• Jerricho Cotchery: You had to pay the reach price here, and a couple of times I did just that.

• Earnest Graham: The 2007 run passed the eye test, and no one behind him thrills me.

• Justin Gage: Take his second-half numbers and multiply by two? Okay, that's a best-case scenario, but by default he's the best target here.

Kind of an uninspiring lot, but make of it what you will. And hopefully you have Kevin Walter and Tim Hightower, I guess.

A few other personal lists:

Players I own a few times, but I wish it were a lot more

• Brandon Marshall: The over/under is "Pro Bowl trip." And I'll still take the over.

• Jay Cutler: It's such a deep man crush I don't know if I can be rational about him.

• Ricky Williams: Time-warp summer, he looks five years younger. Honest.

• Kenny Watson: I have no long-term faith in Chris Perry, and Watson proved himself last year.

• Ray Rice: Is he big enough to be a primary guy in this year? I'm curious. Every time I watch Rice play, he does something impressive (same with Steve Slaton).

• Braylon Edwards: Watching him score all those Maize and Blue touchdowns, I knew I was hooked for life.

• Tony Romo: Impossible not to like.

• Chris Johnson: Must-see TV every week.

• Rashard Mendenhall: Just to frost my buddy Big Noise, though I sniped him Wednesday night. I'm not overreacting to two fumbles, let's just hope it doesn't come up in September (ditto for Hightower).

Notable guys I purposely avoided (and never drafted)

• Jason Campbell: Still foggy in the pocket, and a new offense just about every year doesn't help with the learning curve. Yeah, the Auburn WCO experience was good, but that was so long ago.

• Darren McFadden: Track speed does not a football player make.

• Larry Johnson: Love the player, hate his surroundings. Also wonder how he'll handle the 4-12 train wreck they're headed for.

• Willis McGahee: Nicked up, offensive line has fallen off, new scheme to learn. I don't think he's going to age well.

• Josh Brown: Kicker value is more about teams and less about talent. You want to invest in the Rams, be my guest.

• Rudi Johnson: Not hard to connect the dots on this one.

• I also took Ronnie Brown once, back in May for a magazine, and never repeated it.

Guys I wish I owned, but don't

• Vikings Defense: Price was never reasonable but man they look legit.

• Calvin Johnson: Buzz made him unaffordable.

• Marshawn Lynch: Stunned I never got him; Buffalo got kinda trendy.

• Marion Barber: No one is more fun to watch, though the seek-contact style is a little worrisome.

• Antonio Bryant: Still FA-available here and there, I guess.

So that's my story. Who did you hitch up to, and avoid, this summer?

Dissenting opinions, Week 1: If you were looking for Detroit-Atlanta coverage, you're home

Yahoo! fantasy staff — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 11:07:42 PDT

Every Friday during the NFL season, we'll review the Yahoo! weekly position ranks. If an expert breaks from the herd on a particular player, they'll be asked to show their work...

Jon Kitna (Y! rank 13, Behrens' rank 9).

In the past I've used words like "reckless" and "terrible" to describe Kitna, and I'm not prepared to take those comments back, despite the excellent preseason. But this week he faces an Atlanta defense that finished 29th in yards-allowed and 30th in sacks in 2007. They don't appear to have improved significantly, either. The mismatch of the week in the NFL should be the Lions' receivers versus the Falcons' secondary. Don't be surprised if Kitna delivers three touchdowns (and his usual turnover or two).

If you drafted Kitna as a situational fantasy starter, you're playing him in Week 1. This is one of the best match-ups he'll have all year.

Greg Olsen (Y! rank 17, Funston's rank 10).

I'm playing a hunch on Olsen. You can't get deep on Indy's Cover 2 -- the Colts allowed the fewest 20-yard pass plays and 2nd-fewest 40-yard pass plays in '07. Not that Chicago's vertical passing game, with Kyle Orton at QB and a motley crew of inexperience and/or mediocrity at receiver would be a threat for the most generous of defenses. By the numbers, opponents look to the tight end against Indy -- the Colts allowed the eighth-most receptions to tight ends last season. Olsen is cohabitating the position with Desmond Clark, but Clark hasn't been that healthy this preseason (knee sprain) and the team plans to utilize him more as a blocker because, believe me, they can use all the extra help they can get on the offensive line. I expect Olsen to see the most targets on the team, and I won't be surprised if he goes for 60-70 yards, which is typically good enough to land within the weekly top 10 at the position.

Roddy White (Y! rank 8, Pianowski's rank 20).

The Roddy White rank reflects my tempered expectations on Matt Ryan out of the box. White dominated in 2007 and did it with spotty QB play, but it's a mistake to expect miracles from Ryan immediately; the Falcons might have to go backwards a step before they move forward. Ryan averaged just 5 yards per attempt in the preseason and threw a bunch of check-downs -- his focus is clearly about avoiding a bad play right now, not hitting on a big one. The Falcons were 29th in the league in rushing attempts last year, a rank the new regime won't allow to repeat, not with Michael Turner ready to go.

The Lions pass defense was a joke in 2007, but the unit has been completely overhauled and looked solid during the preseason (5.9 YPA). I'm not going to put too much stock in those results, of course, but it's a mistake to expect last year's leaky pass defense to automatically carry over. It's a fluid league; we need to re-learn what's what every season. Until we get some numbers and tape to analyze, I'm considering the Detroit secondary a neutral matchup for opposing quarterbacks and receivers.

Kevin Smith (Y! rank 21, Evans' rank 7).

Smith will ooze top-ten RB goodness in Week 1. With newly acquired plodder Rudi Johnson breathing down his neck, the rookie needs a statement effort to cement his case as Detroit’s No. 1. Yes, he was inconsistent in exhibition play, but his skill set is tailored perfectly for Rod Marinelli’s fresh zone-blocking scheme. Atlanta’s frontline was pulverized by the run last season conceding 157 total yards and 16 total touchdowns to rushers, the fifth-most fantasy points yielded. Minor improvements were made to the Falcons’ diminutive D-line this past offseason, but not enough for a dramatic turnaround. Smith should find numerous sizable holes to burst through. Expect Smith to be the Wyatt Earp of rushers in what will be a shootout in Hotlanta. Fearless Forecast: 21 carries, 89 rushing yards, 2 receptions, 11 receiving yards, 2 TDs.

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Photos via Getty Images

Let's try to offer hope to 'Skins fans

Andy Behrens — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 09:12:22 PDT

Yesterday, Washington was not quite ready to be on TV.

If you're looking for a single play to summarize the night, try this one via the Yahoo! boxscore:

3rd-17, NYG47 2:20 J. Campbell passed to S. Moss to the right for 4 yard gain

On third and long, trailing by nine with 2:20 remaining in the fourth quarter, they threw very short to a thoroughly covered receiver, apparently hoping for something miraculous to happen.

Here's Jim Zorn:

"My first game was very frustrating ... We just looked so poor, ourselves, offensively."

Indeed. And it was a total team effort. The play-calling was silly, Jason Campbell seemed indecisive, and the Giants owned the trenches. Santana Moss scored Washington's only touchdown, but he also dropped passes. All things considered, it wasn't a great way to open the season.

But there's no sense piling on. If you owned any of the skill position players involved in that mess, you can't be feeling great today. After much thought, we've come up with a few reasons for Redskins fans to remain hope--

Well, OK, no. Redskins fans should not remain hopeful. But here are a few things that weren't totally (expletive) last night:

1) Antwaan Randle El caught seven passes for 73 years, despite the broken hand.

2) Clinton Portis somehow managed to rush for 84 yards, even though various Giants routinely met him in the backfield.

3) London Fletcher was outstanding, finishing with 12 solo tackles.

4) Fred Smoot's injury (hip pointer) doesn't sound nearly as serious as it looked.

5) Sure, Chris Cooley only had one reception for seven yards. But he also had an 18-yard catch negated by a penalty, so at least he tried to give you two fantasy points.

Hmm...

...

Um...

(expression turns placid, far-off, undisturbed, Zorn-ish)

...

Uh...

Yeah, OK, there is no sixth reason. If you can think of anything else that went well, please share.

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Photo via AP

Closing Time: California streaming

Scott Pianowski — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 23:52:31 PDT

The Athletics are in a miserable 12-35 funk right now and could be the AL's worst team. They've got the worst offense in the majors. There's not a ton to be optimistic about.

Oh, except the schedule. The A's played a double-header Thursday and get another one Saturday, a boon to fantasy players looking to double-dip at this time of the year. A run here, an RBI there, a sneaky steal, these things decide fantasy championships.

Doubleheader streams were on the menu in the Y! Friends & Family League into Thursday, as Rajai Davis, Jack Cust, Mark Teahen, Eric Patterson and Bobby Crosby all got a 24-hour contract. The Oakland side of that was a bit frustrating for fantasy players because Bob Geren submitted two very different lineups (stripping us of the extra at-bats), but you get the idea Geren will be less rest-conscious with Saturday's twin-bill in Baltimore, given that the A's have Sunday off.

I was the guy who rostered Davis, and I'll give him some run through the Baltimore series. He played just one game Thursday but it was a productive effort (two runs, a hit and a walk, one steal), and he's been surprisingly valuable over the last three weeks (15-for-50, seven steals). This isn't a long-term play, but one of the fun parts of mixed-league roto, to me, is the burners, the grab-use-dump guys you have a short dance with. This is one of those times.

• B.J. Upton has a torn labrum in his left shoulder, an injury he's prepared to play through, the St. Petersburg Times reports. He'll need surgery in the offseason. "At this point there's nothing I can do about it, especially with Carl (Crawford) and Evan (Longoria) already out," Upton said. "It's a little too late in the year, especially with the position we're in, for me to pull up lame." Since the shoulder popped out in May, he's got five homers over 387 at-bats and a mediocre .388 slugging percentage. As for Longoria (wrist), he will travel with the club on the road trip that starts Friday, but there's no timetable for when he might be able to play.

• The other scalpel dropped with Ian Kinsler; he's going to have season-ending surgery on his sports hernia. We're still waiting for that elusive full season from Kinsler, who's missed at least a month in each of the last three years.

• Kevin Gregg (knee) hopes to return to the Marlins a week from Friday, albeit he admits that's an "optimistic goal." In the meantime it's a full-fledged committee here, with Matt Lindstrom and Joe Nelson the main characters.

• This entire CT has taken an Injury Lap shift, but wait, there's more: Justin Duchscherer (hip) had a setback in his bullpen session Thursday and won't pitch this weekend. With the Athletics nowhere near playoff contention, you have to wonder if we're at "shut it down" time . . . Carlos Quentin (forearm) might be back Friday, but it will be a longer wait for Carlos Zambrano; he has rotator cuff tendinitis and isn't expected back until Sept. 14 at the earliest. Sean Marshall picks up for Z this weekend in Cincinnati. Random fact: Carlos apparently means "Free Man" in Spanish . . . Kevin Youkilis (back) remains day-to-day into the Texas series which begins Friday . . . Chipper Jones (laundry list, including a sore knee) got back into the lineup Thursday and reached base four times. We all love Chipper, but he's pretty much day-to-day for the balance of the year . . . Bobby Abreu (wrist) and Hideki Matsui (day off, perhaps in part due to Scott Kazmir) were held out of Thursday's play . . . Ronnie Belliard suffered a pretty bad groin strain Thursday and is probably done for the year.

• Speed Round: Casey Kotchman got back to the Braves Thursday after an 11-day absence for personal reasons. He went 0-for-3 with a walk. Let him clear his head a bit before you roll with him . . . I don't know what's wrong with Craig Hansen, but something sure is. He took the loss in a messy appearance at Cincinnati (three runs, retired just one batter) . . . Jeff Keppinger had a grand finale to the Pittsburgh series, putting up a 2-1-1-2 line and drawing a walk. He's swung the bat a lot better the last two weeks . . . Kenny Rogers is so easy to hit, even Gary Matthews can do it (four knocks, raising the average to .236) . . . Travis Snider hit his first big-league homer Thursday and has six hits over the last two days, so maybe it's time for the Jays to give him a better batting slot . . . Mike Babcock insists he won't play Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg on the same line this year. Wait, it's not hockey season yet - but it will be soon.

• Handshakes: Francisco Cordero (27) didn’t have great command, but he meandered through a scoreless inning (stranding two runners) . . . The Padres aren’t going anywhere but don’t blame Trevor Hoffman (28), who’s been great in the second half . . . Mike Gonzalez (9) converted again, and this cat hasn’t blown a save chance since June of 2004 (that’s 39 in a row). Bring that question to trivia night and you should drink for free . . . Joakim Soria got the win in the opener for Kansas City, so Ramon Ramirez (1) was needed for the rogue save in the nightcap. Ramirez has been somewhat useful for the Royals in 2008 (2.86 ERA, a strikeout per inning), though he’s dodging control issues (29 walks in 63 innings) . . . Dan Wheeler (11) got the final out for Tampa when Jason Hammel fell apart.

An important programming note, followed by three semi-actionable bullets

Andy Behrens — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 13:31:09 PDT

Please consider joining us tonight over at Shutdown Corner, where we plan to liveblog the reawakening of hostilities between the 'Skins and Giants. It should be fun...as long as you bring something more than start/sit questions. If that's all you've got, the Week 1 ranks can be found here.

Also, if you have seven minutes to spare -- and since you're parked here on a fantasy blog, you probably do -- we urge you to enjoy the highlights of Chris Cooley's fantasy draft.

Let's just say that I'm totally with Fred Smoot on Matt Ryan and Reggie Bush.

Other notes for your consideration...

• Rookie WR DeSean Jackson will start for the Eagles in Week 1 against St. Louis. If you like explosive players with 4.35 speed, give him a test-drive. He's still available in 30 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

• Talented Seattle TE John Carlson, also a rookie, will start against Buffalo on Sunday. He's a player of interest, particularly when you consider all those injured Seahawks receivers.

Maurice Morris will get the starting nod at running back, but he's just a small part of a large, uninteresting committee:

At running back, Holmgren said Julius Jones could be the starter next week in the home opener against San Francisco and also will play this week -- as will fullback Leonard Weaver and probably T.J. Duckett and rookie fullback Owen Schmitt.

• It's tough to believe the Colts would really allow Devin Hester to return anything against their normally miserable coverage unit, but...

"There are going to be times when you have to kick to him,'' Dungy said. ''And we're going to try to punt well and punt high and make him move around to catch it. We're going to try to make him move to catch the kickoff.
''We certainly don't want to kick it out of bounds on the kickoff, so there's going to be a chance he's going to get the ball."

OK, please offer your best guess at the date of Daunte Culpepper's un-retirement in comments. Bonus points if you can correctly predict when he'll sign with the Bears.

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Photo via Getty Images

Is the RB-RB approach a Norwegian Blue? Is it merely resting? Or an ex-parrot?

Andy Behrens — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 12:18:05 PDT

After months of drafts, my suspicion is that the RB-RB strategy is simply pining for the fjords. And if that makes no sense, here's the appropriate video.

We can safely say, of course, that an elite wide receiver who receives 140 or more targets is a solid pick in Rounds 2, 3 and 4. No one disputes that. In fact, such a player will almost surely prove to be more valuable than a running back who's stuck in a committee, unless that RB gets all the goal-line action. We know that specialization and job-sharing are increasingly the rule, not the exception. It's an important draft consideration, no doubt.

Yet throughout the draft season, the fantasy community has routinely passed on a few backs who are clearly not part-timers.

Jamal Lewis, for example, is typically drafted in the middle of the fourth round in Yahoo! public leagues (ADP 35.3). Michael Turner goes late in the fifth (49.8), and Earnest Graham is taken in the eighth (72.1). We've projected that each of those backs will get more than 300 touches in 2008. If they do, they'll dramatically outperform their ADPs.

In 2008 drafts, I've taken two RBs within the first three rounds much more frequently than I did last year. We'll see how that works out in the end. If you had told me in 2007 that drafting RB-RB in the opening rounds would be considered a contrarian approach the following season, I certainly wouldn't have believed you. Still, that's where we are today. If you don't draft RB-WR-WR, people call you a n00b. They LOL. It gets ugly.

But I can tell you this much with absolute certainty: we're terrible at ranking wide receivers during the preseason. Miserable. Grossly incompetent. I'm referring to all experts, too. And you.

Last year, these were our top 10 receivers on August 30:

1) Steve Smith, 2) Marvin Harrison, 3) Chad Johnson, 4) Terrell Owens, 5) Reggie Wayne, 6) Torry Holt, 7) Larry Fitzgerald, 8) T.J. Houshmandzadeh, 9) Marques Colston, 10) Javon Walker. And then No. 11 was Lee Evans.

There are some quality names on that list, don't get me wrong. But many of the top scorers -- including two of the top three -- were buried in the ranks. If you actually drafted your starting WRs within the first three rounds last year, you managed to successfully avoid Randy Moss (No. 15), Andre Johnson (14), Braylon Edwards (24), Plaxico Burress (17), Greg Jennings (38), Brandon Marshall (43) and Wes Welker (unranked).

Maybe the lesson of '07 was not that you should get your receivers early, but that you can wait and still draft elite, first-tier talent.

It's not like we nailed the running backs last year, either. Please don't misunderstand. The fact is, despite the perfect clarity with which many owners view their drafts, we're all wrong at least as often as we're right. You're really hoping to acquire players with high ceilings and big workloads, guys who can finish well ahead of the average owned player at their position. You'll also need to react quickly when those players emerge mid-season.

For better or worse, I've drafted RB-RB many times this year -- here's the Tank Johnson Desert Classic draft, and here's the Friends & Family league. That's not really what New Age drafters are doing. It undermines my already sketchy credibility.

So now that the regular season is upon us, my question to the commenting community is this: Is the RB-RB draft a dead parrot? Or is it stunned?

Either way, you have to admire its beautiful plumage...

Closing Time: There was a much better headline, but Tatum Bell stole it

Andy Behrens — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 00:06:12 PDT

It's the first week of the head-to-head playoffs and the final month of the roto season. If you're still reading fantasy baseball content on September 4, then you've obviously had a pretty good season.

Maybe not a great season just yet, but at least a good season. You've avoided humiliation, which is everyone's private, unstated goal.

In consideration of tonight's sophisticated audience, we're going to forgo the usual celebration of Adam Lind (because he went 1-for-4) and Denard Span (1-for-6, CS). And we probably don't need to mention that Frank Francisco picked up another save, and pitched another hitless inning. There's also no point discussing Joe Nelson's save for the Marlins, because you added him and his 1.69 ERA four hours ago.

Other things you don't need to hear: Chris Dickerson hit his sixth homer, Elijah Dukes stole his 13th base, Troy Percival returned (badly), and Chase Headley went 3-for-4.

So instead, this will be a rare and highly-collectible edition of Closing Time in which we focus almost entirely on year-end strategy.

The tip drill begins now...

• Know your head-to-head playoff tiebreakers, everyone. Here's a link to the official rule. The first tiebreaker is ERA, followed by AVG, then WHIP, then HR. The same sequence applies in custom leagues, but if you don't use one of the categories, it's skipped.

There's no use complaining about the tiebreaking system, either. Just play the game and know the rules.

• This is no time for loyalty. If you're going to stash an injured player on your bench in Week 23, that player had better be outrageously good and the injury better be minor. Carlos Guillen and his inflamed nerve? Dropped. Yunel Escobar and his aggravated shoulder? Fired. You can't afford to lose stats this late in the season, not if there are reasonable replacements available. If your guys aren't playing, they can't help you.

But if they're playing twice -- like the A's and Royals on Thursday -- that's a good thing. Take advantage of doubleheaders when you can.

• If you're about to reach the innings-pitched limit in a roto league, consider reaching past it. We again refer you to a poorly understood rule:

A Public League pitching staff can throw a total of 1250 innings for the season. Once the sum of all innings pitched reaches the 1250 mark, pitchers no longer accumulate stats. All players active on the day a maximum is reached will receive credit for their stats.

So even if you're only an inning away from the max today, stats will count for every player who pitches for you on the day you reach 1250. This matters in tight races.

• Don't be afraid to wake up sleeping owners if they can help you. Sometimes, just a small nudge via email can be enough to get a bottom-dweller to finally activate Matt Capps from the DL, which might in turn cost some rival owner a point in saves.

• If you're in a head-to-head matchup against a hardcore streamer -- someone who adds the best probable starters every day -- then consider streaming a day ahead of them. You don't have to actually compete in Ws and Ks, and you don't necessarily have to start every pitcher you add. The idea is to simply take the best options away from your opponent, and give yourself the best possible chance to win ERA and WHIP.

• Dynasty league owners (and people who just really like David Price), you'll want to make a habit of using the "Sort by Waivers Only" feature pretty much every day. Check out this piece by Jeff Passan for detail on call-ups of interest. It's worth noting that there was a brief, uneventful Mat Gamel sighting on Wednesday.

Feel free to share and/or decry various end-of-season tactics in comments...

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Photos via Getty Images

Juggernaut Index No. 1: In these uncertain times, Dallas offers safety, experience, Pacman

Andy Behrens — Wed, 03 Sep 2008 13:18:08 PDT

The Juggernaut Index is our annual attempt to rank every NFL team for fantasy purposes. We're not concerned with real-life wins and losses here, only fantasy potential. These rankings are not to be questioned.

And yes, we're discussing these final three teams after most of you have drafted. We've taken this approach because fantasy owners already know their Colts, Patriots and Cowboys. At this point in the Index, it's basically a barroom argument with injury updates.

1. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys, of course, are not strangers to the top spot in the Yahoo! Juggernaut Index.

Romig ranked them first in '96, Mike Harmon loved Dallas in '83 -- yeah, he whiffed on Hogeboom, but he totally nailed Doug Cosbie -- and here's what a younger, edgier Brandon Funston had to say back in '78:

Dave Casper in the third round? No thanks. That's a jive-ass pick. Billy Joe Dupree will give you the same numbers, and his ADP is 61.4.

Believe me, people simply did not write "jive-ass" on the Internet back in 1978. Not in the mainstream media. It never happened. But Funston got away with stuff like that because he was dead-on right, and he used to have hair like Parker Stevenson.

So this is clearly not the first time that Dallas has entered a season with high expectations. The fantasy community could not be more enthusiastic. We're taking three Cowboys within the first 17 picks of an average draft. In the final Yahoo! preseason ranks, Dallas had the No. 2 quarterback, the No. 6 running back, the No. 2 wide receiver, the No. 1 tight end, the No. 1 kicker, and the No. 6 defense.

The bottom line is that no other NFL team matches up with them, fantasy-wise. The Patriots were spectacular in '07, but nearly all the points belonged to two players. Dallas offers elite fantasy talent at every roster spot, which made this a relatively easy choice.

You're free to disagree with the selection, obviously, but we didn't have a difficult time making it.

Also, please recall that this is a fantasy-specific ranking, so Tony Romo's playoff history has no relevance here. Last year he threw 36 touchdown passes in Weeks 1 through 16, and he ran for two more scores. What he does in January is not a concern of ours.

As we mentioned yesterday, 36 TD passes is a big number historically, and it's not a total you should casually project for any player, regardless of their situation. Romo certainly has the weapons to get there again, however: Terrell Owens is uncoverable, Marion Barber is terrifying, Jason Witten is exceptional, and Patrick Crayton is...well, he was a disaster against the Giants, but he'd always seemed reliable.

Romo also has three Pro Bowl linemen -- G Leonard Davis, C Andre Gurode, and T Flozell Adams -- and a savvy coordinator, Jason Garrett.

Here are a few useful facts about the offense, via the Dallas Morning News:

The Cowboys led the league with 233 plays of 10 yards or more and 68 plays of 20 yards or more.
In case you wondered, the offense scored more points in the second half (247) than it did in the first half (207), an indication Garrett made better second-half adjustments than the defensive coordinators he faced.

It would be no surprise if the chronically backward-hatted Romo threw for another 30 TDs this season, which would again place him among the top fantasy scorers. He was No. 2 overall last year, finishing with 302 public league points. If you took away five touchdown passes, he still would have tied Peyton Manning in fantasy scoring. He's a safe pick, and you should expect him to have a huge opener against the Browns. Romo sits atop the Week 1 QB ranks.

T.O. does not suffer from a lack of exposure, and I've already delivered a preseason pitch on behalf of Witten, for whom Romo has much affection (it's evident above). Let's instead focus on running back Marion Barber, a player who found the end zone 28 times over the past two seasons, despite being trapped in a job-share with Julius Jones.

Barber's average draft position is 8.6 this year, so it's clear that fantasy owners are excited about his prospects. As John Hansen put it, Barber is "a fantasy football gift if you can get him later/late in the first." He's a violent runner (Barber, not Hansen) who delivers hits that are much worse than those he takes...but he takes plenty.

No less an authority than Emmitt Smith has raised questions about Barber's style:

"I think he spends a lot of energy that may not be necessary," Smith said when he attended Cowboys practice this spring. "For a starting back, I'm all about putting your heart into it, but you're doing a lot of kicking, running up, bucking and you're exerting a lot of energy. We need you for four quarters."

Just enjoy him while he lasts, because self-preservation does not seem to be one of Barber's priorities.

He's a cruel, unusual runner, but you have to be impressed with the results. Barber averaged 4.8 yards per carry in 2006 and 2007, and he caught 44 passes last year. Explosive rookie Felix Jones is the handcuff, but he's not expected to seriously threaten Barber's workload.

Matt Buser projects 347 touches this season. If Barber reaches that total while simply maintaining his career TD rate, as well as his yards per carry (4.5) and yards per reception (7.0), then you're looking at 1700 combined yards and 20 touchdowns.

And yes, that would be a fantasy gift late in the first round.

The Dallas defense is loaded with IDP plays. They include LB DeMarcus Ware (84 tackles, 14.0 sacks), Bradie James (101 tackles), Greg Ellis (12.5 sacks), Zach Thomas (165 tackles in '06), Roy Williams (92 tackles), Ken Hamlin (62 tackles, 5 INTs), and Pacman Jones (4 INT in '06), who should be paired with Atari Bigby whenever possible. But not with strippers.

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OK, that's the Index, everyone. We thank you for your patience, and for your complete, unwavering agreement with all of the selections. Please celebrate the Cowboys via comments...

2007 Dallas team stats

Rushing: 109.1 Y/G

Passing: 256.6 Y/G

Points per game: 28.4

Turnovers: 24

Red Zone possessions and TDs: 56, 30

'08 Schedule strength: .523

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The rest of the Index...

32) Chicago, 31) Tennessee, 30) San Francisco, 29) Miami, 28) Baltimore, 27) NY Jets, 26) Oakland, 25) Tampa Bay, 24) Atlanta, 23) Houston, 22) Kansas City, 21) Buffalo, 20) Carolina, 19) Detroit, 18) Seattle, 17) Denver, 16) Washington, 15) St. Louis, 14) Minnesota, 13) Arizona, 12) Jacksonville, 11) Cincinnati, 10) Philadelphia, 9) Pittsburgh, 8) Green Bay, 7) NY Giants, 6) Cleveland, 5) New Orleans, 4) San Diego, 3) Indianapolis, 2) New England, 1) Dallas

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Photos via Getty Images

Closing Time: Ethier's army, on his way

Scott Pianowski — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 23:47:23 PDT

Some players grab your attention and pique your interest from the jump, and that was the case when I first caught Andre Ethier back in 2006. I saw a young hitter with power potential, a keen eye, a good stick against breaking pitches, unfazed by lefties. Smart enough to eventually steal 12-15 bases a year, too. I scribbled in my notebook that LA had found an outfield staple into the next decade.

A few bumps in the road have hit since then. Ethier's numbers took a mild hit across the board in 2007, and he entered this year fighting for a job (the Dodgers couldn't help themselves when Andruw Jones hit the market; they quickly tossed a bloated contract to the bloated outfielder). Ethier has managed to stay in the lineup for most of 2008 nonetheless (a monster spring staked his claim), but the production against lefties has fallen through the floor. Mixed leaguers haven't been sure what to do with Ethier, in part because the LA outfield seems to be in constant flux. The trade for Manny Ramirez took away one outfield slot, while Juan Pierre hung around, ominously.

Ethier's sweet stroke is doing all it can to simplify the issue. He quietly put together a monster August (seven homers, .615 slugging, .961 OPS), and the hits kept coming against San Diego Tuesday (three hits plus a walk, his 19th homer, four runs). Joe Torre has settled on Ethier as the team's No. 2 hitter in front of the sizzling Ramirez, clearly the catbird spot in the Los Angeles lineup. It's no coincidence that Ethier's best surge of the year started just when Ramirez hit town.

The LA lefty is still widely available in a lot of mixed groups, so there's time to get in on the fun. The only red flag from a roto standpoint is pending stork duty; Ethier's wife is expecting a child this month, which will keep Papa off the field for a few days. But given the way he's swinging right now, and LA's precarious place in the standings, the Dodgers can't afford to have Ethier out of the lineup for too long. Get Ethier on your hit list for 2009 as well; he's heading into his Age 27 season, and there's still a level or two to climb here.

• The Dodgers get their own injury lap, with four notable players in the news: Takashi Saito (elbow) threw fastballs off a mound with no problems Tuesday, and Torre thinks it's possible Saito could be active by the end of next week. According to the team's official site, Torre is comfortable returning Saito to the closing role once the veteran is comfortable throwing all of his pitches. There's not a major sense of urgency to that, given that Jonathan Broxton is 11-for-13 on save chances since Saito hit the DL.

Brad Penny (shoulder) had a positive mound session Tuesday, working about 60-70 percent. He'll get back to the mound in a few more days, but it's not clear if he'll have the stamina to be a starter again this year, and he's not someone I'd be hopefully holding onto in mixed leagues. Jeff Kent's knee surgery was successful and he might be pinch hitting in a couple of weeks, not that we can do much with that from a fantasy perspective. And before we leave SoCal, let me tell you that a right leg injury took Pierre out of Tuesday's game in the seventh inning; it's not clear yet how serious it is.

• Carlos Zambrano threw five uneven innings Tuesday then complained of a sore arm; the Cubs will run tests Wednesday. Sean Marshall steps into the rotation if Zambrano needs down time, and given where the Cubs are in the standings, I can't imagine how Zambrano will make his next turn. Keep your fingers crossed, North Siders.

• Dustin Pedroia, franchise player? He's sure looked the part in the second half, putting together a monstrous 40 games (.366, 41 runs, seven homers, 28 RBIs, eight steals). Terry Francona has recently been using Pedroia in the cleanup spot and why the heck not? Pedroia had a couple of four-hit games last week, and he threw three hits, a homer and five RBIs at the Orioles Tuesday. I liked Pedroia just fine entering his second year, but honestly, I had no idea this power/speed breakthrough was possible.

• Speed Round: Josh Anderson had a homer and a steal in Atlanta's keg-tapper victory over Florida, and based on what he showed in the minors this summer, he's worth considering in deeper mixed groups . . . Baby steps for Aaron Harang, who threw his third straight quality start in a losing cause (6 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 B, 4 K). Gopheritis remains the problem here - Harang allowed two more homers, making it 31 on the year . . . A homer and two hits for the versatile Felipe Lopez, who's got his mojo back in St. Louis. Three positions of eligibility, too . . . Make it three straight useful turns for Adam Wainwright off the DL, even though he lasted just 5.1 innings at Arizona (a win and seven strikeouts take the sting out). I hope his modest win total keeps people off the scent next year, because this guy is a legitimate No. 1 starter and fantasy stud waiting to happen . . . Paul Azinger didn't have a slew of Ryder Cup options at the end of the day, but there's no way I would have taken long-hitting but erratic J.B. Holmes over veteran Scott Verplank. If I sound like Dusty Baker when I say that, so be it . . . I suppose someone is hitting Cole Hamels because that 3.01 ERA came from somewhere, but every time I scout the guy, he looks untouchable (my adopted Nats couldn't solve him over seven innings Tuesday). The last six starts for the lefty look like this: 42.2 innings, eight runs, six walks, 34 strikeouts.

• Much rejoicing in Cleveland, Victor Martinez finally hit a homer. Kelly Shoppach had a couple of hits, too. The Tribe got another win from Fausto Carmona (three in a row), though he still doesn't look anything like the ace we saw last summer. The surging Indians have settled into third place in the AL Central and might steal a winning record before the season ends.

• Clayton Kershaw tired at the end of his Tuesday start against San Diego, but overall it was an excellent turn (7 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 6 K). He's pushed his way into the circle of trust for the remainder of the year, and I certainly like him next Monday at San Diego.

• Injury Lap: Jesus Flores took the brunt of this nasty home-plate collision with Chase Utley, but the Nats are hoping the backstop merely has a sprained ankle. We'll know more when he's re-examined Wednesday . . . A bunch of grounded Orioles: Jeremy Guthrie has a dead arm and will miss a turn, Melvin Mora remains out indefinitely with his sore hamstring, and Jim Johnson will have an MRI on his sore shoulder . . . Johnny Cueto (elbow) should be able to start this weekend against Chicago . . . Joe Crede's sore back knocked him out of Tuesday's game . . . Mark Grudzielanek (ankle) is officially done for the year, if you play in an AL-Central Only league . . . Mike Aviles merely has a bruised finger, nothing worse, and he rejoined the lineup Tuesday . . . Jarrod Saltalamacchia (strained forearm muscle) won't play again in 2008 . . . Troy Percival (knee) came off the DL and steps back into the closing gig for Tampa Bay.

• You close the game out, they shake your hand: B.J. Ryan (26), perfect inning with two strikeouts . . . Jose Valverde (39), man is he locked in . . . Frank Francisco (3), taking the job and running with it (three whiffs, 14 of 16 strikes) . . . Matt Capps (18), healthy again and rolling again . . . Rick Vaughn (17), who remember was lights out in the California Penal League . . . Mike Gonzalez (8), one of the few pitchers who got out of Florida alive (Matt Lindstrom took the loss on the other side) . . . Luis Ayala (5), with two strikeouts and two stranded runners . . . Joakim Soria (34), the best closer no one gushes about . . . And of course Francisco Rodriguez (54), pitching out of a jam at Detroit.

Hope most of the numbers fell your way, friends. Dr. Behrens will be your guide tomorrow night.

Juggernaut Index No. 2: Ceiling Belichick is watching you draft

Andy Behrens — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 12:38:23 PDT

2. New England Patriots

Last season, the Patriots were as close to perfect as any NFL team we're ever likely to see.

They scored the most points (36.8 PPG), gained the most yards (411.3), committed the fewest turnovers (15), and they had the best scoring-percentage inside the red zone (.944). This season, all the essential skill position players return, and New England faces the league's easiest schedule (.387).

But as Bill Belichick is fond of saying, and his drones are fond of repeating, each year is different.

If you're expecting Tom Brady to deliver 4800 passing yards and 40-plus touchdowns every season now that he has Randy Moss at his disposal -- or if you're thinking Moss will deliver 1500 yards and 20 TDs now that he has Brady -- then you've set yourself up for disappointment.

Only 11 quarterbacks in NFL history have managed to throw as many as 35 TD passes in a single season, and only 13 players have had more than 15 touchdown receptions. Those are huge numbers. If Brady and Moss reach those levels in 2008, they will have again produced two of the all-time seasons.

Yet if they "only" reach 35 and 15, many of you will demand to know what went wrong.

Don't expect Brady and Moss to repeat what they did in 2007. And don't expect another 145-target, 112-reception effort from Wes Welker. Last year was an other-worldly, record-shattering season; this year will be different, and every team in the AFC East has improved.

Still...New England should be spectacular for fantasy purposes.

Brady and Moss are the top-ranked players at their positions, and there are no dissenters among the Yahoo! experts. If you took 10 touchdowns away from each of them, they'd still be top-tier players. They've earned their ADPs (6.0 for Brady, 7.1 for Moss). The Patriots are, of course, the only team that offers two players who are routinely selected within the first eight picks in fantasy drafts.

If you're worried about anything as a Brady owner, it's injuries -- and we're not referring to the foot issue that sidelined him during the preseason. Brady says he'll be ready for Week 1, and no one seriously doubts him.

No, the injuries that should concern fantasy owners involve offensive linemen. We'll turn to the Patriots Team Report for details:

All-Pro left tackle Matt Light missed the bulk of camp with an undisclosed injury. Starting right guard Stephen Neal started camp on PUP and will be lost for at least the first six weeks of the regular season ... Throw in injuries to backups Ryan O’Callaghan (IR), Billy Yates and Russ Hochstein and the Patriots’ line was a patch-work effort throughout the preseason.

Brady spent most of 2007 living inside an impenetrable 6'4", 1500-pound wall. (The wall crumbled in February, largely due to the efforts of Justin Tuck). The protection Brady enjoyed during the regular season was absurd. It enabled all those unhurried bombs to Moss, and the almost casual first-down strikes to Jabar Gaffney and Welker. It would not be unreasonable to expect more pressure on Brady this season, and less resistance.

The health of the offensive line, of course, is not just a small detail in the running game. Laurence Maroney was a fantasy disappointment in 2007, but New England actually had a very good team rushing attack (115.6 YPG, 4.1 YPC, 17 TDs). Maroney was terrific in the playoffs, finding the end zone in every game while carrying 61 times for 280 yards against three exceptional defenses (Jacksonville, San Diego, New York). He also scored all six of his regular season touchdowns after the Pats' Week 10 bye.

If any Patriot has been a bargain in '08 drafts, it's Maroney. His Yahoo! ADP is 32.3, making him the 15th running back selected in a typical league. There's little doubt that he has the skills of a first-round back. Maroney was limited last season by a groin injury, a job-share situation with Sammy Morris, and the Patriots' tendency to put the ball in the air, even in goal-line situations. Benjamin Watson had six TDs in '07; Kyle Brady and Mike Vrabel each had two.

The 31-year-old Morris has returned from a nasty injury, and you can expect him to poach carries. He's the Maroney handcuff, not LaMont Jordan or Kevin Faulk. (Faulk, by the way, will be suspended for the season-opening blowout of Kansas City).

Here's one final bit of propaganda on the New England ground game, via the Daily News Tribune:

With Laurence Maroney's emergence down the stretch last year, Sammy Morris healthy and LaMont Jordan added to the mix, the Pats should have a better running game and a more balanced attack this year.

Balance isn't what Brady owners are looking for, but it's an interesting word for those who've drafted Maroney in Round 4.

The New England defense is third in our preseason ranks, and they should obviously be a great play against the Brodie Croyle-led Chiefs in Week 1. The loss of Asante Samuel clearly hurts, but other key pieces remain from a defense that totaled 174 fantasy points last year. The best IDP options are Adalius Thomas, Vrabel, and rookie Jerod Mayo.

And with that, we're finally down to one...

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2007 New England team stats

Rushing: 115.6 Y/G

Passing: 295.7 Y/G

Points per game: 36.8

Turnovers: 15

Red Zone possessions and TDs: 72, 50

'08 Schedule strength: .387

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The rest of the Index...

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Photos via Getty Images

Closing Time: A fixture in Flushing?

Scott Pianowski — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 03:47:32 PDT

It's Labor Day on the calendar, but if they're playing on the sandlots, we're here to talk about it. Let's do a quick holiday lap and see what's up, starting in the ninth inning and working backward.

• What do we make of Luis Ayala, anyway? We saw a nice, clean save from him Monday at Milwaukee, a solid bounce-back after Friday's messy conversion at Florida. He's now got four saves and a win since joining the Mets a couple of weeks ago, and as any save-chaser knows, opportunity is the key in this pursuit. At the end of the day it comes down to how badly you need the stat he provides - if you're desperate for it, you ignore the red ink on the stat profile. If you're not in a saves-bind, the big picture should steer you away. (Billy Wagner might be ready for a rehab assignment later this week, but there's nothing guaranteed with him, as you know.)

• I made a lot of Brandon Lyon's struggles in August, but here's the catch - none of his four nightmare appearances in that span came in a save situation, and he didn't lose any games in the month, either. So maybe the (retractable) roof isn't caving in on the Arizona closer, I guess. Lyon recorded his 26th save of the year Monday against the Cardinals, pitching around a couple of hits in the ninth. His 4.76 ERA and mediocre peripherals don't inspire much confidence, but saves are saves and Jon Rauch pretty much collapsed over the last three weeks.

• Matt Lindstrom picked up his second victory in three days, working a scoreless ninth against Atlanta (dodging two hits). Far from a dominant effort (no strikeouts either), but the two winning efforts essentially stamp him the director of the Florida committee while Kevin Gregg rehabs, and maybe Lindstrom will have a 2008 shelf life even past that.

• Randy Johnson ran a Rob Deer special in his Monday turn, allowing four homers and collecting eight strikeouts over his 3.2 innings. Let's shake this off and start him with confidence Sunday at Los Angeles; he's been too good in the second half.

• Felipe Lopez quietly has a nine-game hitting streak for the Cardinals, including three hits and a homer Monday. He's also picked up eligibility in the outfield, to go along with second base and shortstop. In the mixed leagues I run in, this at least makes Lopez a viable consideration when you're looking to fill short lineups on a Monday or Thursday.

• Roy Oswalt kept the strikes and ground-balls coming Monday at Chicago, and that led to one of those dominant-looking lines from an outing that wasn't really dominant (8.1 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K). He's collected seven wins in his last 10 turns, with a bunch of performances like this one. Jose Valverde, who has been electric lately, got the last two outs for save No. 38.

• Speed Round: Better mention that Adrian Beltre and Stephen Drew both hit for the cycle, I don't want a revolt . . . Cliff Lee, clear off some mantle space (20th win, five-hit shutout over Chicago). One-season fluke, or Tom Glavine 2.0? Discuss . . . Jed Lowrie continues to impress, with a useful 2-1-1-1 line and three walks . . . In my attempt to promote every member of the Washington Nationals at some point, I'll mention that Ryan Zimmerman has 12 hits and two homers over his last seven starts. A small sample, but this is the guy we were looking for in April. The pesky Nats have 49 runs over their seven-game winning streak . . . Make it four snappy turns in a row for Jorge De La Rosa, albeit Monday's gem was the first assignment in Colorado (the other three came in pitcher-friendly yards) . . . Don't forget the handshakes for Jonathan Broxton (11; pounded the strike zone from the opening toss) and Jonathan Papelbon (35; hasn't allowed an earned run since mid-July).

• Adam Jones (foot) returned in style to the lineup Monday, hitting a ball over Fenway's Green Monster in his first at-bat. He finished the night 1-for-4, and keep in mind he was on a bit of a tear before the injury hit. I know I'm not the only roto player hoping we can sneak out a value play on Jones next spring, but his closing act will have a lot to do with where the price lands.

• Injury Lap: Ben Sheets left Monday's start after five innings with a sore left groin. Oh wait, don't worry, it's just "very, very slight . . . tightness." Got it . . . Jody Gerut (finger) took some cage swings Monday but nonetheless missed his fourth straight game . . . Andruw Jones was activated off the DL, but let's hope the Dodgers have the good sense not to play him (Andre Ethier doesn't deserve a trip to the bench). Ethier had a hit and a run, two walks and a steal Monday, for what it's worth . . . Joba Chamberlain (rotator cuff) heads back to the New York bullpen Tuesday, where he'll stick the rest of the season. He's one of the few non-save relievers that you'll want in a common mixed league, but don't be crazy with initial expectations . . . Jarrod Saltalamacchia left Monday's game with a sore right elbow and will have an MRI Tuesday.

• Chris Young's return to the mound was nothing to write home about, as we expected. (5 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 3 K). "I was a little bit rusty," admitted Young, returning from a strained forearm. He'll go this weekend at Milwaukee.

• Some rants just have to see the light of day, even if they're barely related to our proceedings here, and this is one of those times. If you're not in the mood for a rant, consider the column finished and I'll catch up to you tomorrow night.

Retired Michigan football coach Lloyd Carr threw out the first pitch before the Yankees and Tigers got underway at Comerica Park Monday. You might remember Carr; he's the genius who decided to platoon Tom Brady with Drew Henson back in the late 90s. Carr's specialty over the last few years in Ann Arbor was an upset loss in September, and with that, it's fitting that the Tigers lost Monday even with ace Justin Verlander on the hill. (I suppose I shouldn't be so bitter about Carr; while the Wolverine fan in me was constantly let down this decade by his underachieving teams, the Patriot fan in me never would have seen Brady in New England - via pick No. 199 - had Carr given him the stage completely. Some tradeoffs are worth making.)

Juggernaut Index No. 3: The short version is that every Colt gets drafted. The long version involves bad knees and tight pants

Andy Behrens — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 12:01:44 PDT

The Juggernaut Index is our annual attempt to rank every NFL team for fantasy purposes. And we're finally near the end. We're not concerned with real-life wins and losses here, only fantasy potential. These rankings are not to be questioned.

3. Indianapolis Colts

It shouldn't be necessary for us to explain why, exactly, the Colts will have a terrific offense this season. We'll just remind you that they've finished among the NFL's top five in points and yards every year since 2003, and we'll refer you to the team statistics below (28.1 PPG and 358.7 YPG in '07).

In an era of unpredictability, they have been both consistent and excellent.

Indianapolis is the only team with a quarterback, running back and wide receiver ranked among the top five at their position for fantasy purposes. They also have the No. 6 tight end, the No. 7 kicker, and the No. 14 team defense.

It would be a severe understatement to say that there are lots of useful Colts. There are, in fact, many elite Colts. Let's review them by average draft position in Yahoo! leagues...

Joseph Addai, RB, ADP 6.0. Entering his third NFL season, Addai already has 23 career touchdowns. His workload was light over the final six games in 2007, but he was also dealing with an injury (or injuries) to his neck and/or shoulder and/or chest. (The Colts are not a dumb team. They reveal very little). Indianapolis has averaged 18 rushing touchdowns per season over the past three years, so it's not like the ground game is an afterthought. Addai will rarely fall beyond the seventh overall pick. If you're handcuffing, the picks are Dominic Rhodes and rookie sixth-rounder Mike Hart, not the recently cut Kenton Keith.

Peyton Manning, QB, ADP 12.1. The only thing we've really learned as a result of all the fretting about Manning's knee injury is...well, it's something most of us didn't need to know:

Manning said he hadn't worn a knee brace during his rehab. "Especially anybody that knows me, I wear tight jeans. There's no way a knee brace could fit under my blue jeans."

When our desire for fantasy information takes us inside Peyton Manning's pants, we've probably gone too far.

The Colts' QB hasn't missed a game in his pro career, and he's not going to miss the opener this season against the Bears. It's possible that the injury you should worry about belongs to an offensive lineman:

Jeff Saturday is weighing options that include playing with an injured right knee or undergoing surgery that could force the Indianapolis Colts' three-time Pro Bowl center to miss a good portion of the 2008 season.
"Jeff is trying to determine the best course of action to take," Ralph Cindrich, Saturday's agent, said Tuesday afternoon. "He could have surgery or he could strap it up and play."

The Colts actually selected a few centers in the draft, so they'll have replacement options.

Injury worries have caused Manning to drop to No. 4 in our preseason QB ranks, but it's important to note that he's basically been the most reliable player of the fantasy era. In Manning's worst seasons, he's still passed for more than 3700 yards and 25 touchdowns. He's thrown 30 or more TD passes in three of the past four seasons. Tom Brady has only reached that total once. (True, Brady only needed eight weeks to get there, but still).

If the Colts were panicked about Manning's knee, they would have kept more than two QBs on the roster.

Reggie Wayne, WR, ADP 15.9. It felt like Randy Moss broke every meaningful receiving record last season, but Wayne actually led the NFL in yardage (1510) and he had six more receptions than Moss. If you're a believer in the reemergence of Marvin Harrison, then maybe you're dropping Wayne a spot or two in the WR ranks. There's no reason to exclude him from the second tier, however, nor from the top six at his position. Wayne arguably offers less risk and fewer question marks than any other receiver.

Marvin Harrison, WR, ADP 47.9. Yes, he's playing, despite the knee issues that ruined his 2007. And yes, prior to those injuries he'd gone eight consecutive seasons with at least 80 receptions, 1100 yards, and double-digit touchdowns. And yeah, apparently he separates himself from gun charges as easily as he separates from DBs.

You're drafting Harrison in the fifth round as a WR2, just ahead of Calvin Johnson (ADP 48.8) and a full round before Roddy White (55.8) and Dwayne Bowe (59.0). That's not consistent with our preseason ranks, where Harrison is the No. 24 receiver behind Johnson at 19, White at 20, and Bowe at 23.

There's a difference between playing at peak level and merely playing; clearly we're not all convinced that the 36-year-old Harrison is about to have a vintage season. Notes like this from KFFL inspire little confidence:

Mike Chappell, of the Indianapolis Star, reports Indianapolis Colts WR Marvin Harrison (knee) did not shed much light on his condition when he talked to reporters Tuesday, Aug. 19. He offered no opinion on whether he is back to where he was before he suffered his left knee injury last season.

Dallas Clark, TE, ADP 54.5. In Harrison's absence last season, Clark had the best year of his career. He caught 58 passes, and nearly one in five resulted in a TD. He was fifth among tight ends in fantasy scoring last season (121 points). However, if you're bullish on Harrison, then you shouldn't reach for Clark in the sixth round, not with so many other high-ceiling TEs on the board.

Anthony Gonzalez, WR, ADP 100.0. This is everyone's favorite mid-round sleeper at WR, and you'll earn some "Nice pick" comments in draft chat when you take him. Gonzalez was terrific in Weeks 12-15 last season, catching 20 passes for 347 yards and three TDs. He was productive in the playoff loss to the Chargers, too, catching four passes for 79 yards, including a 55-yard TD that gave the Colts a fourth-quarter lead. Those of you drafting Harrison enthusiastically should consider Gonzalez three or four rounds later as a hedge.

The Colts' defense scored reasonably well last season in fantasy leagues (150 points), but they certainly don't face a soft schedule (.594). Non-division opponents include Minnesota, Green Bay, New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Cleveland and Cincinnati. The best IDP options on the Colts roster are Gary Brackett, Freddy Keiaho, Bob Sanders, Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney. As with the Colts' offense, there are a bunch of useful defensive pieces to choose from.

Oh, and another thing: We haven't made a big deal about kickers here in the Index, but it's worth noting that Adam Vinatieri's longest field goal last season was 39 yards. He was 9-for-11 from 40-plus yards the prior year.

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2007 Indianapolis team stats

Rushing: 106.6 Y/G

Passing: 252.1 Y/G

Points per game: 28.1

Turnovers: 19

Red Zone possessions and TDs: 69, 39

'08 Schedule strength: .594

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