Roto Arcade

The Juggernaut Index is our annual attempt to rank every NFL team for fantasy purposes. We're not concerned with real-life wins and losses here. No, here we just care about imaginary winning. If an NFL team gains lots of yardage, limits turnovers, and scores when they reach the red zone, then you'll want to own their skill position players in fantasy leagues. You'll find those teams at the top of the Juggernaut Index. We began at No. 32, the worst of the worst, and we're working our way to the elite fantasy offenses.

These rankings rely on hard, incontrovertible math. There are algorithms at work. This stuff is peer-reviewed. Seasons are simulated. You can't argue with science, so don't even try...

28. Baltimore Ravens

If there's one trait shared by every team at the bottom of the Juggernaut Index, it's a murky (or simply bad) quarterback situation.

In Baltimore, Steve McNair has retired, leaving either Troy Smith or Kyle Boller as the Week 1 starter, and former Blue Hen Joe Flacco as the future. And if you don't think Flacco's the real thing, ask the kids at Monmouth (NJ). They'll tell you.

Or ask Ray Lewis:

"Don't be scared to be the second Ben Roethlisberger," Lewis told Joe Flacco before the Ravens took the field on a rainy Friday.

No pressure, kid.

Flacco is big and strong-armed. He can, as they say, make all the throws. He's also not likely to achieve fantasy relevance this season unless things take a bad turn, early.

Cam Cameron, the Ravens new offensive coordinator, has an encouraging track record. He's directed excellent, creative offenses, and he's developed a few young quarterbacks. Cameron's running backs have a history of elite fantasy performance, too (LaDainian Tomlinson 2002-06, Ronnie Brown through Week 7 last season).

The Cameron hire makes Willis McGahee that much more interesting, fantasy-wise. Quietly, McGahee had an excellent season in 2007. He gained a career-high 4.1 yards per carry, produced five 100-yard rushing efforts, and scored a touchdown in seven consecutive games, from Week 6 through Week 13. Read More >>

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Wait, before we feed the football content vortex, let's address a comment from last night's Closing Time:

By the way, the starters in the Braves lineup had a .300 lifetime batting average against (Hiroki Kuroda) prior to last night's game. Talk about a hard to predict pitching gem.

It's possible that's a joke, designed to coax a response. If so, well-played, sir.

But there are, in fact, lots of fantasy owners who make lineup decisions based on things like a rookie pitcher's "career" numbers against a certain type of hitter. Kuroda hasn't yet pitched 100 Major League innings. Unless you're somehow using stats from his Hiroshima Toyo Carp days and adjusting for quality-of-opponent, ballpark, the metric system, etc., then it's difficult to find any truly meaningful splits.

It was a mistake to even mention Kuroda's home-vs.-road performance, because, unless he's literally cheating at home, it's unlikely that he'll continue to be two runs-per-game better in L.A., forever.

We've written it before, and we'll no doubt write it again (and again, and again): Don't infer too much from too little information. Are you really going to sit Brian McCann against Kuroda because he's batting .000 against him (0-for-3)? Hopefully you'll place more value on the other 1426 at bats in McCann's career. 

OK, back in a couple hours with a look at another non-Juggernaut...

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When Milwaukee acquired CC Sabathia from Cleveland, they officially opened trading season. And as Funston just reminded you in the Skinny, you'd be wise to address your fantasy team's needs now, today, while there are still two and a half months remaining in the season.

If you generally wait until your league's trade deadline to make a move (that's August 10 in public leagues), you're limiting the potential impact of a deal, particularly in rotisserie leagues.

That may seem like a small and obvious point, and it's one we've made before:

Instead, people tend to wait until deadlines approach in August...and then they realize that the 25 steals they need are either A) prohibitively expensive, or B) impossible to get from any single player.

Still, thousands of owners refuse to make significant moves until some arbitrary future date. But if your team needs aren't clear by July 8, they never will be. Act soon.

You'll also need to begin paying attention to the little box at the bottom of your team page, beneath the words "Maximum Games." If you're well off the pace at any position (most likely catcher), this is the time to start using the travel days to catch up. That means you'll need to occasionally drop a few replacement-level hitters in advance of Monday or Thursday off-days, and add different replacement-level hitters. Or you can keep a Ty Wigginton/Yunel Escobar/Jerry Hairston-type around, for use at a variety of positions.

The point is that you'll need to begin thinking about maxing-out your games and innings. If you don't make the effort, you're leaving stats on the table, and your doing an unnecessary favor to anyone near you in the league standings.

(End of baseball PSA. Time to feed the football content vortex...)

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Hiroki Kuroda just became a nice fantasy trade chip. This was his pitching line on Monday:

9.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 K.

The right-hander had a perfect game through seven innings, and settled for near-perfection after Mark Teixeira doubled to lead-off the eighth.

That's 16 scoreless innings for Kuroda since his return from the DL. He began the night only 25.3 percent-owned.

As the AP's game recap points out, the Braves were perhaps not at their best on Monday:

The Braves flew across the country after waiting through a 1-hour, 50-minute rain delay in a 7-6, 17-inning victory over Houston on Sunday in the longest game ever at Turner Field.

We'd write something like "That's not to take anything away from Kuroda's fine effort," except that it does actually take something away.

Still, the Braves seemed impressed:

"Kuroda was great tonight -- probably the best pitching performance we’ve seen all year,” Teixeira said. “His stuff was great -- a mid-90s fastball, putting it exactly where he wanted it, sinking his fastball at 90 to get you to ground out or miss."

Kuroda lowered his ERA to 3.39 with the win, and he nudged his K/BB ratio just over 2.00. He entered the night with a significant home/road split already (1.13 WHIP at home, 1.45 away), and it's going to look more dramatic tomorrow. Kuroda should get one more start in L.A. before the All-Star break. Read More >>

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The Juggernaut Index is our annual attempt to rank every NFL team for fantasy purposes. We're not concerned with real-life wins and losses here. No, here we just care about imaginary winning. If an NFL team gains lots of yardage, limits turnovers, and scores when they reach the red zone, then you'll want to own their skill position players in fantasy leagues. You'll find those teams at the top of the Juggernaut Index. We began at No. 32, the worst of the worst, and we're working our way to the elite fantasy offenses.

These rankings rely on hard, incontrovertible math. There are algorithms at work. This stuff is peer-reviewed. Seasons are simulated. You can't argue with science, so don't even try...

29. Miami Dolphins

Ronnie Brown was a top 25 fantasy running back last season.

Under normal circumstances, that's not too impressive...but it's pretty good for a guy who only played six and a half games.

Brown was leading the NFL in yards from scrimmage when he tore his anterior cruciate ligament in Week 7. He was leading all RBs in fantasy points, too. Brown entered the Dolphins' October 21 game against the Patriots with four consecutive 100-yard rushing efforts to his credit, and he was on pace for a fifth (76 yards, 17 carries). He left Week 7 in the third quarter, and had season-ending surgery on November 1.

If Brown had remained healthy last year, he would be a mid-first round pick in 2008 drafts. But since he enters the season recovering from the injury, and there's a job-share with Ricky Williams looming, he's falling in early drafts. His current ADP at Mock Draft Central is only 32.7, which makes him the No. 19 running back.

We know, of course, that running backs can fully recover from ACL injuries. In fact, the first two rounds of your draft will feature a few backs who've had work done on various ACLs (Frank Gore, Willis McGahee, Jamal Lewis). Brown is aiming for a remarkably quick comeback to full strength, though. When the Dolphins open the regular season, it will have been just over ten months since his surgery. Brown says he'll be 100 percent by Week 1, but we'd all like to see evidence of his 100 percentedness before spending a top 20 draft pick.

The 31-year-old Williams is draft-worthy right now, and he's a necessary handcuff. His current ADP is 157.1, squarely in the Derrick Ward/Ladell Betts range. Read More >>

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Jeff Passan is confirming Tom Haudricourt's report about the Sabathia-LaPorta trade, so that's enough for me.

Here's what we know so far, via the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

A source familiar with the Brewers' trade for Cleveland lefty C.C. Sabathia just told me that the other players going to the Indians with Matt LaPorta are minor-league pitchers Zach Jackson and Rob Bryson and a fourth player, perhaps minor-league third baseman Taylor Green.

Sabathia is universally-owned already, and this trade didn't exactly damage his fantasy value. Moving from a losing team in a DH-league to a contender in the NL is, of course, a good thing. Progressive Field and Miller Park have been similarly pitcher-friendly environments so far this year.

It's worth noting that the NL Central is home to three of MLB's ten highest-scoring teams, though (Chicago, Pittsburgh, St. Louis), and Sabathia's new schedule in the head-to-head playoffs is no picnic. These are the Brewers final six series: vs. CIN, @ PHI, @ CHC, @CIN, vs. PIT, vs. CHC. That's ten games against the NL's two most productive lineups (Chicago and Philadelphia). If you're a Sabathia owner, particularly in a head-to-head format, this is a good time to get a price-check. There's going to be much trade-related enthusiasm, and he's been especially brilliant in his recent starts, posting a 1.80 ERA and 0.82 WHIP over the last month.

Or you could just keep him and have one of the best starters in baseball. Your call.

The 23-year-old Matt LaPorta will have mixed league relevance when he arrives in Cleveland. It's not perfectly clear when that arrival will happen, but you'd think immediately, since the tents just folded. He's hitting .288/.402/.576 at Double-A with 23 doubles and 20 home runs. In an OBP or OPS league, you want him. In a league that uses Ks for hitters, maybe you don't; he's struck out 63 times in 302 at bats. LaPorta seems like an eventual 1B/DH, but he's a corner outfielder at present.

Brad Evans discussed LaPorta in yesterday's Weekly Rundown, for those of you craving more.

Other than LaPorta, you won't find any other elite Brewers prospects in the deal. The 20-year-old Rob Bryson is (debatably) the most interesting. He has a 4.25 ERA and a dazzling K-rate at Single-A (73 Ks in 55.0 IP). Zach Jackson is a 25-year-old lefty with a 7.85 ERA at Triple-A. He has 34 Ks in 57.1 innings. Taylor Green, a 21-year-old third baseman, is hitting .295/.380/.444 at Single-A.

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Known as the Sacagawea of fantasy primers, the Weekly Rundown guides head-to-head owners through a forest of obscure stats and exploitable matchups in an attempt to help solve lineup conundrums. While reading, keep in mind matchups are subject to change due to managerial moves, unforeseen injuries and Mother Nature's influences.

LEADING OFF

• Slide over Rich Hill and Brett Myers. Underachiever Jeff Francoeur needs a seat on the minor league short bus.

On Friday, the 24-year-old former super prospect was surprisingly optioned to Double-A Mississippi, likely for three weeks. With just 4 hits in his past 41 at-bats and eight long-balls in 334 plate appearances, the Atlanta front office decided to take drastic measures to spark Francool's dormant stick. Disappointed but accepting of the demotion, Francoeur told the Atlanta Journal Constitution July 4:

"My game plan is, if they have the confidence in me, which I hope they do, is to come back and start that Friday night after the All-Star break and get going and have a huge second half. Because I know I can."

As to why he was ousted, Atlanta GM Frank Wren gave the following response, presumably from an office filled with leather couches and desktop pendulums:

"The best thing for him was to get out of the pressure of the day-to-day major-league schedule and what all that means and get back to where he can relax and get his swing going again. It just was not happening at this level. It doesn't matter if it's Francoeur or Chipper Jones or Brandon Jones or whoever it may be. When you struggle, the best approach is 'simplify to rectify.' The human brain works in mysterious ways and sometimes the reality of things is not what's always going on in the brain. The quicker you can simplify things, the quicker guys can rebound."

For now, the 78.9 percent owned Francoeur is expendable in shallow mixed leagues. But for patient owners with bench space, he's worth stashing. Despite a downturn in HR/FB% for the fourth consecutive season, his attractive 20.8 LD% and improved strikeout ('07 K%: 20.1, '08: 18.6) and contact rates ('07 CT%: 73.9, '08: 76.6) are positive indicators that his bat could resuscitate once his confidence is renewed.

In his first game with the Southern League Braves he slapped two singles and had a line-drive laser down the left-field line, originally called a home run, overturned. Read More >>

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The overwhelming success of our fantasy football mock left us little choice but to follow suit for fantasy hoops now that the NBA Draft has come and gone. And let's face it - it's never too early to mock draft. The plan is to have four rounds done by Thursday, and then we'll pick things up again after the July 4 weekend. The participants: Jonathan Tom, esteemed Fantasy Basketball Cafe contributor and winner of the 2007-08 Y! Friends and Family League; a Yahoo! Sports triumvirate of Brandon Funston, Matt Buser, and Matt Romig; Justin Phan, an FBC and fantasybasketball.com contributor; and David Klyce of HoopsKlyce.com (and 2006-07 F&F league champ).

For settings, assume the standard nine categories (FG%, FT%, 3PTM, PTS, REB, AST, STL, BLK, TO) and roto scoring format. Individual draft rounds can be found at the following links: 1, 2, and 3.

Chris Kaman, LA Clippers - Round 4, Pick 1. This team already has Allen Iverson, Dwight Howard, and Kevin Martin. I dropped down a little to find a player whose strength was other than points. By getting a second center on the 4th pick the rest of the league will probably now start to feel some pressure to fill that position. This team hopes Kaman decided to stay in shape over the summer as when he did not two seasons ago he struggled. Look for this pick to shore up the rebound and block categories. (Klyce)

Al Jefferson, Minnesota FC - Round 4, Pick 2. This team already has Deron Williams, Josh Smith, and Carmelo Anthony. This pick gets this team a center and is the best player remaining on the depth chart. Jefferson should make the team competitive in rebounds as Jefferson averaged over 11 last season. He is also good in points, FG%, and can block around 1.5 per game. A weakness is FT% which when paired with Josh Smith is something that should make this team avoid other players that shoot less than 80% from the line in future rounds. (Klyce)

Joe Johnson, Atlanta G - Round 4, Pick 3. Johnson ended the season with a bang and put up his best numbers during the final 33 game stretch when Mike Bibby joined the Hawks. During that stretch Johnson put up top-20 production and improved upon seven of nine categories, particularly PTS (23.2), 3PTM (2.5), AST (6.6), STL (1.2), and FG% (.475 on 18.3 attempts). The category to highlight is FG% though, where Johnson improved significantly from a dismal 40.5% as a result of Bibby's much improved assist ratio. The icing on top of the cake is Johnson's near-pristine bill of health - he has played a full 82 game schedule in five of his past six seasons. (Phan)

David West, New Orleans PF - Round 4, Pick 4. West is finally starting to get the respect and recognition that he deserves, receiving his first All-Star Game selection last season. He made great strides in his game over the past two seasons and delivered big time last season, finishing 27th in per-game value. He has gone from averaging 16.4 PPG, 0.8 BPG, .458 FG%, and .766 FT% during the first half of the 2006-07 season to averaging 22.1 PPG, 1.2 BPG, .493 FG%, and .858 FT% during the second half of last season. What a difference two seasons has made. With fantasy-MVP Chris Paul locked up in New Orleans for another 4 seasons, things can only get better for West from here on out. (Phan)

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We're going with all bullet-points tonight, and here's a(nother) heads up that blog posts may be fairly scarce over the next few days. Enjoy the holiday, everyone!

* J.R. Towles drove in both of the Astros' runs in their 5-2 loss to the Dodgers. He's looking at starts four out of every five days while Humberto Quintero is on the DL. After entering the season with some fantasy buzz, the 24-year-old ended up in Triple-A in early June after hitting a paltry .145/.270/.282 in 117 at bats for the Astros. He had some success while he was down, batting .279/.380/.574 in 19 games, with five home runs and three steals - of note, however, is the massive lefty/right splits (.194/.341/.333 vs RHP, .400/.444/.920 vs LHP). His major league splits on the season are roughly as substantial - .126/.237/.243 vs RHP, .294/.455/.529 vs LHP - although his two-run hit came off a RHP tonight (Chad Billingsley).

* Speaking of Billingsley - he's on a serious run right now. Tonight's line (W, 8.0 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K) pushed him to 6-2 over his past ten starts, with a 2.07 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 65.1 innings, with 59 strikeouts. Of the most interest is his ever-improving BB/9 - it's at 4.0 on the season, but has fallen to 3.2 over the past ten starts and 2.4 over the past five.

* In case you missed it: Rafael Furcal underwent back surgery on Thursday and is expected to miss a minimum of two months. Dodgers utility infielders Chin-lung Hu, Luis Maza, and Angel Berroa are hitting a collective .188 in 234 at bats thus far on the season, and Jeff Kent left tonight's game with back stiffness.

* Scorching-hot J.J. Hardy pushed his hitting streak to 15 games with four hits, including two doubles and a home run. He's hitting .419 (26 for 62) during the streak with 12 runs, 15 extra-base hits (10 2B, 5 HR), and 14 runs batted in, and he's raised his average 41 points (from .242 to .283).

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