What We Learned: Is Nashville a giant tease or playoff threat?

Most observers of this league can probably agree that one of the big surprises so far this season has been the overwhelming and frankly shocking success of the Nashville Predators.

Here we are in mid-December and the Preds, with a new coach and very much retooled roster, are putting together a very convincing case that they will be making the playoffs with relative ease in another four months' time. Most predictions for Conference III specifically probably would have put them a little bit outside the top-3, logically behind Chicago and St. Louis, and maybe Dallas — woefully disappointing Dallas — and even Minnesota. Put another way, “on the outside looking in” was probably a reasonable place to put their playoff hopes.

But at this point, even if they go .500 the rest of the way, the likelihood that they miss the playoffs isn't as big as it probably should be given the on-paper talent. This is a team using Colin Wilson as its No. 2 center, and say what you want about his season (it's been okay!) but that doesn't typically portend “Western Conference heavyweight.”

So one has to wonder, at some point, exactly how good this team actually is in the grand scheme of things. We've seen more than enough evidence of teams surging out to huge leads in their divisions only to falter because the foundation — see also: The Process — upon which those point totals are built is poorly constructed and also on top of a swamp. For the most part, however, this is not the case with the Predators.

Prior to Sunday's games, the Predators were seventh in the league in score-adjusted corsi-for at 5-on-5, at 53 percent. This is a huge step forward from last year's 48.4 percent, which had them 23rd in the league and rather deserving of a coaching change and missed playoff berth. Basically, if you're taking 53 percent of the shot attempts in all your games you're doing something very, very right, and for the Predators, unlike some other teams in that area, aren't being dragged to that number by a few players being utterly dominant. In fact, only six regulars have a sub-50 CF%, and for the most part those are guys logging the toughest minutes with Shea Weber and Roman Josi chief among them.

(As an aside, this is just a thing with Weber: His possession numbers are basically never north of 50 percent, and you can attribute that to the fact that he gets some of the toughest assignments in the league, to some extent. But guys like Zdeno Chara and Mark Giordano log tougher minutes, and yet drive play consistently in the right direction. And despite this, The Eye Test and conventional wisdom says that Weber is elite, though those two issues are often one and the same. Is this a failing of advanced metrics or our eyes fooling us because this guy can shoot the puck through a wall and he puts up a lot of points? If it's the former, why is Weber basically the only “elite” defenseman for whom this type of thing applies? Interesting test case. One that requires a lot more study.)

Basically, if you are looking for the best ways to define a “very good team,” 53 percent corsi is a pretty good cutoff. The “elite” level is 55 percent, and right now, oddly, only one team (Chicago) is there.

And if you look at the Predators' roster real close, you can see why: The top line of James Neal, Mike Ribeiro, and Filip Forsberg has been the best one in the league to this point in the season, putting the puck in the net and simultaneously preventing its opponents from doing so at an alarming rate (Forsberg's 5-on-5 goals-for percentage is around 85, a ludicrous number by any means: 30 for and just five against in 29 games.)They're also driving possession very well, all well above 55 percent, and while their ability to outscore opponents at the current rate is going to dwindle because it mathematically has to, the possession will help to buoy them otherwise.

But what's been so interesting this season hasn't necessarily been all the puck-having these guys are doing, but rather how thoroughly they've dominated teams in terms of scoring overall. Their 60 goals for at 5-on-5 has them tied for second in the league with Chicago and the Islanders, and the 34 goals against is the best mark by a notable enough margin that it'd take a real bad game by Pekka Rinne for the second team (Pittsburgh) to catch up.

They're getting the bounces at their end of the ice. No question. Their PDO is the highest in the league by nearly a full percentage point and likewise bound to fall again. But the question is by how much. For one thing, their current shooting percentage isn't really elevated that much above what the team did the last two seasons. For another, one really has to consider that Rinne, as talented a goaltender as there is in the league, is having a career year by just about any measure now that he's fully healthy again. Among the 28 goaltenders to break 800 minutes at 5-on-5 already this season — we can safely call them the league's starters — Rinne's save percentage is tops. Score-adjusted save percentage? Also tops. And he logs heavier minutes than anyone in the league.

And the Predators aren't doing some kind of crazy job at suppressing shot quality: Rinne is just playing out of his mind. Fortunately for Peter Laviolette, who along with Rinne really has to be credited with much of this turnaround, his No. 1 is one of the few netminders alive whose reasonable predicted performance level is somewhere in this neighborhood. While no one's “.930-something” good, Rinne should be considered .920-something when he's not battling bacterial infections.

So yes, the Preds are probably going to stop winning at such a considerable clip — Saturday's loss to San Jose at the end of a lengthy road trip notwithstanding — but a huge slowdown? You'd really have to doubt it. Numbers and Eye Test alike don't bear out any kind of reason to be too doom-and-gloom about this team's chances. Full credit to David Poile, too, for basically making the “quantity over quality” ideal work with the bottom of this roster specifically, and for pulling the trigger on the James Neal trade to essentially transform the top.

They're not Cup contenders, obviously, but this is a solidly upper-middle of the pack team in the West. No one at all would have predicted that in September.

What We Learned

Anaheim Ducks: The Ducks have won seven in a row, which gives them more wins in their last seven games than regulation losses all season. At some point we just have to entertain the possibility that they're always going to outperform their possession numbers. So far this year, they're at an even 50 percent.

Arizona Coyotes: How you know Arizona's season is going sideways: They lost to a team that only played 17 skaters.

Boston Bruins: The Bruins are six points ahead of the Sabres. The Panthers have just as many points and two games in hand. So given that context I'm trying to think of a funnier idea than Milan Lucic asking Shawn Thornton “How do I be a leader?” this summer.”

Buffalo Sabres: Buffalo has won its last five home games. They're seven points ahead of last-place Carolina and Edmonton. So much for Connor McDavid.

Calgary Flames: Hmm it seems like the Flames might be.............. bad?

Carolina Hurricanes: This team is seriously pathetic. If losing is a “disease” this team might as well be Typhoid Mary.

Chicago Blackhawks: I think Patrick Kane is good. Man oh man.

Colorado Avalanche: Paul Stastny went out to dinner with several former teammates before Colorado and St. Louis played each other. One assumes he picked up the check.

Columbus Blue Jackets: Tim Erixon is never gonna make it in this league, is he?

Dallas Stars: Give the Stars three days off to prepare for a game, and there's a good chance they'll barely beat an opponent that pretty clearly sucks.

Detroit Red Wings: How is this possible? This is seriously the weirdest thing I've ever seen in hockey. Just click the link. Click it. I can't understand.

Edmonton Oilers: Every Oilers loss we have to be like, “Wow this team is so bad what is happening what a bunch of losers!!!” But also, like, if there's a year to magically become inexplicably bad, isn't this The Year To Do It?

Florida Panthers: The Panthers currently occupy a playoff spot. This is not a drill. (Must be all that Shawn Thornton-brand Leadership™.)

Los Angeles Kings: Maybe don't give Drew Doughty this kind of room down the wing.

Minnesota Wild: How bad is Arizona? Even Minnesota went 2 of 3 on the power play against them. That bumps the Wild up to 12 power play goals for the year.

Montreal Canadiens: Say what you want about everything else, but Marc Bergevin is awesome at drafting.

Nashville Predators, America's Favorite Hockey Team: But seriously, Pekka Rinne for Vezina.

New Jersey Devils: Asked if the Devils need to fire their coach, well, Cory Schneider didn't say no.

New York Islanders: “New York teams are so horrible that now the Islanders are our number one team!” Hoooooo boy that's good.

New York Rangers: Saturday night in Vancouver was just a beating. Maybe Alain Vigneault just knows how to coach against the Canucks' strengths for some reason.

Ottawa Senators: Yeah, I mean, Curtis Lazar is good, so why would you loan him to the World Junior team? Lost season in the NHL I guess.

Philadelphia Flyers: Wow the Flyers have won two in a row. And all they had to do was play the Devils and Hurricanes. Seriously, though, it's the first time they've done that since early November, when they beat Edmonton, Florida, and Columbus in three straight. The Flyers are bad, folks.

Pittsburgh Penguins: SIDNEY CROSBY HAS THE MUMPS? GET OUTTA HERE I CAN'T BELIEVE IT!!!!!!

San Jose Sharks: San Jose are winners of six straight at home. I guess someone has stepped up in the leadership department and... they've scored how many? It's 24? In six games? And they only allowed 12? Seems like maybe the Sharks are just good, then. Hmm.

St. Louis Blues: How you gonna win an own-zone faceoff in overtime and get bullied this bad along the end boards? The Avalanche are awful. (And really, the Avs were also lucky to get to overtime. They got outshot 42-25 and got a point out of it.)

Tampa Bay Lightning: Haha, asking for consistency from NHL officials on something like goalie interference. Do the Bolts also want a car that runs on water and a time machine while we're at it?

Toronto Maple Leafs: Has anyone noticed that the Leafs have 19 of a possible 22 points from their last 11 games? Is it all because Phil Kessel told the media, “Get away from me?” I'm gonna say it is.

Vancouver Canucks: Biggest reason for that pitiable loss to the Rangers? Inability to defend odd-man rushes. The Rangers scored on three of them in the game's opening 6:46. Which isn't ideal.

Washington Capitals: My big takeaway from this article, and I didn't know this coming in, is that Brayden Holtby's nickname is “Holtsy?” They're not even trying any more. That's one letter off.

Winnipeg Jets: This is why you always have to start Ondrej Pavelec.

Play of the Weekend

I'm not sure Richard Panik meant to do this, but it worked anyway.

Gold Star Award

Nicklas Backstrom had a natural hat trick against the Lightning which is a good thing to get.

Minus of the Weekend

Serious line of thinking in Penguins Land: “Well, our best player has all the classic hallmarks of a disease that is spreading through the league like wildfire, and it's highly contagious. Let's trot him out in front of the media to talk about it, and deny that it's the disease literally everyone thinks it is before testing him. … Oh crap, he does have that disease? Oh well, I guess there was no way we could have known haha!” Hope a reporter gets the mumps and sues the Penguins.

Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Week
User “lelo07” is getting right to the point. No time to type the word “for” with trade proposals this good.

zajac

3rd round

4

kadri

Signoff
It's your job to make sure kids don't drown.

Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is hereand his Twitter is here.