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Bowl Projections: Week 12 Edition
For the sake of being completely honest at the jump, these projections are considerably more difficult to put together than they were last year. The BCS system wasn’t great at crowning a champion everyone agreed on but it was easy to predict with its ordered system of picks that meant you could tell who would get stuck with UConn. That’s gone, replaced by the top six games all being chosen by a committee with rules on who gets in but not in which games they necessarily have to play. With no previous editions to lean on, it’s tough to tell how things are going to be arranged, but we will try.
As with previous editions, we’re going to assume favorites win every game. Will this happen? Absolutely not, but at least it’s a consistent tool to use in what will surely be a bonkers final three weeks of the season.
Bullet points with some attempts at explanations and some eligibility projections after the list. A * denotes the team is filling in for a conference that didn’t meet all of its obligations. A # and bold name designate an accepted bid:
UPDATE: Wisconsin and Nebraska got flipped moving from master spreadsheet to Word doc. That has been corrected. All the angry Badger fans below are 100% correct in my idiocy.
New Years Six Games
Sugar (January 1 in New Orleans, LA) [Semifinal]: #1 Alabama vs. #4 Baylor
Rose (January 1 in Pasadena, CA) [Semifinal]: #2 Oregon vs. #3 Florida State
Cotton (January 1 in Arlington, TX): Ohio State vs. TCU
Fiesta (December 31 in Glendale, AZ): UCLA vs. Mississippi State
Orange (December 31 in Miami, FL): Georgia Tech (ACC fill-in for FSU) vs. Ole Miss
Peach (December 31 in Atlanta, GA): Marshall (best non-Power 5 champ) vs. Georgia
The Rest
GoDaddy (January 4 in Mobile, AL): Bowling Green (MAC) vs. Arkansas State (Sun Belt)
Birmingham (January 3 in Birmingham, AL): Memphis (American) vs. California* (SEC)
Alamo (January 2 in San Antonio, TX): Kansas State (Big 12) vs. Arizona State (Pac-12)
Armed Forces (January 2 in Fort Worth, TX): Temple (American) vs. Northwestern* (Big 12)
Cactus (January 2 in Tempe, AZ): Maryland* (Big 12) vs. Washington (Pac-12)
TaxSlayer [Gator] (January 2 in Jacksonville, FL): Duke (ACC) vs. Auburn (SEC)
Citrus (January 1 in Orlando, FL): Michigan State (Big Ten) vs. Missouri (SEC)
Outback (January 1 in Tampa, FL): Wisconsin (Big Ten) vs. LSU (SEC)
Belk (December 30 in Charlotte, NC): Notre Dame (ACC) vs. South Carolina (SEC)
Music City (December 30 in Nashville, TN): Minnesota (ACC or Big Ten) vs. Tennessee (SEC)
San Francisco (December 30 in San Francisco, CA): Iowa (Big Ten) vs. Utah (Pac-12)
Liberty (December 29 in Memphis, TN): West Virginia (Big 12) vs. Florida (SEC)
Russell Athletic (December 29 in Orlando, FL): Louisville (ACC) vs. Oklahoma (Big 12)
Texas (December 29 in Houston, TX): Texas (Big 12) vs. Texas A&M (SEC)
Holiday (December 27 in San Diego, CA): Nebraska (Big Ten) vs. Southern Cal (Pac-12)
Independence (December 27 in Shreveport, LA): Virginia Tech (ACC) vs. Middle Tennssee (SEC/C-USA)
Military (December 27 in Annapolis, MD): UCF (American) vs. North Carolina (Navy)
Pinstripe (December 27 in New York, NY): Miami (FL) (ACC) vs. Penn State (Big Ten)
Sun (December 27 in El Paso, TX): Clemson (ACC) vs. Arizona (Pac-12)
St. Petersburg (December 26 in St. Petersburg, FL): East Carolina (American) vs. NC State (C-USA/ACC)
Quick Lane (December 26 in Detroit, MI): Boston College (ACC/MAC) vs. Michigan (Big Ten)
Heart of Dallas (December 26 in Dallas, TX): Rutgers (Big Ten) vs. Rice (C-USA)
Bahamas (December 24 in Nassau, BS): Louisiana Tech (C-USA) vs. Central Michigan (MAC)
Hawaii (December 24 in Honolulu, HI): UAB (C-USA) vs. Colorado State (MWC)
Boca (December 23 in Boca Raton, FL): UTEP (C-USA) vs. Western Michigan (MAC)
Poinsettia (December 23 in San Diego, CA): San Diego State (MWC) vs. Navy (Navy)
Miami Beach (December 22 in Miami, FL): Cincinnati (American) vs. BYU# (BYU)
Camellia (December 20 in Montgomery, AL): Toledo (MAC) vs. South Alabama (Sun Belt)
Las Vegas (December 20 in Las Vegas, NV): Boise State (MWC) vs. Stanford (Pac-12)
New Mexico (December 20 in Albuquerque, NM): Western Kentucky (C-USA) vs. Nevada (MWC)
New Orleans (December 20 in New Orleans, LA): Louisiana-Lafayette (Sun Belt) vs. Air Force (MWC)
Potato (December 20 in Boise, ID): Northern Illinois (MAC) vs. Utah State (MWC)
• It’s an incredibly tough call on the fourth team. Ohio State, Baylor and TCU are all going to be battling, but I am going to assume Baylor getting a championship weekend game against Kansas State coupled with the head-to-head win over TCU gives them the edge. Without having previous semifinals to look at, we don’t really have an idea, but Ohio State was definitely hurt by Wisconsin’s victory over Nebraska, as now they’ll be going against a team with at least two losses in the Big Ten title game. I almost flipped this to Ohio State multiple times and think the Frogs might have the best resume of the three when all is said and done, but man, it's incredibly close.
• Putting Ohio State in the Cotton because they were in the Orange last year and have played in the Fiesta for at least what feels like a dozen times in the last decade, and they get TCU to make sure it’s a sellout with the locals. Georgia (in this situation, 10-2 with Missouri taking the division and the title game loss) plays in the Peach across from a Marshall team within driving distance.
• 11-1 Mississippi State would also have a case at a semifinal spot, but I’m assuming the Rebels will be a slight favorite at home in the Egg Bowl, meaning both teams will end their campaigns at 10-2. Should the Bulldogs prevail, their resume would be a little lacking considering their second best win after a hypothetical victory at three-loss Ole Miss would be…four-loss Auburn? This is where having a non-conference schedule of Southern Miss, UAB, South Alabama and Tennessee-Martin will bite you.
• Michigan State could definitely make one of the New Years Six games (in lieu of Georgia, most likely), but I’m going with the logic of “If the committee doesn’t think enough of the Big Ten to put Ohio State in the semifinals, they won’t put Michigan State in a New Years Six game.” If Ohio State makes a semifinal, Sparty takes their spot regardless. Also, for whatever it’s worth, FEI currently has Georgia ranked 4th and Michigan State 24th.
• You can flip around the New Years Six participants, but I’d avoid putting Ole Miss in the Peach if they finish 10-2. Remember the Rebels opened their season against Boise State in the Georgia Dome.
• Speaking of the Broncos, they could easily take Marshall’s spot as non-Power 5 champ among the New Years Six. If that’s the case, shift them west to the Fiesta or Cotton and fill the Peach in accordingly.
• The middle of the SEC is a complete mess. A&M, LSU and Auburn will have a few more losses between them and we’re assuming Missouri doesn’t drop another game prior to the conference championship. With the conferences now more involved with the bowl selections, the backroom dealings are going to get even murkier.
• I’m riding with Texas/Texas A&M against one another and Tennessee to the Music City Bowl, the former because it’s fun and the latter because it makes sense from a geographic perspective. Don't kill dreams, SEC.
• Almost impossible to say how the new set of Group of 5 bowls make their choices, but with so many balmy destinations (Miami, Boca, Hawaii, Bahamas) there will be a lot of winners.
• I’ve seen Notre Dame projected to the Pinstripe Bowl in some places. I don’t see that happening, as it would mark their third trip to the New York/New Jersey area in the last thirteen months (2013 Pinstripe Bowl, September game against Syracuse at MetLife Stadium). Depending on how Duke finishes, the Irish will either be in the Russell Athletic, TaxSlayer or Belk assuming they do not drop their home finale to Louisville (which is very possible despite them being a favorite). I would be shocked if Penn State isn’t the Big Ten’s pick for the Pinstripe, as bowl-starved supporters from the Keystone State would make the relatively quick trip to the Bronx en masse. Rutgers is always an option but the Scarlet Knights played at Yankee Stadium last postseason.
Teams not yet bowl eligible expected to reach that threshold:
Florida, Tennessee, Michigan, Northwestern, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Stanford, California (this assumes Stanford beats Cal and Cal beats BYU – this assumption could be very wrong), Washington, Houston, Temple, Middle Tennessee, UAB, Western Kentucky, San Diego State, Ohio, Appalachian State, Texas State, Akron.
Teams not yet bowl eligible expected to fall short:
Arkansas (although they are thisclose), Kentucky, Illinois, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Oklahoma State, Oregon State, South Florida, Old Dominion, Fresno State, Wyoming, Buffalo.
Games with at least some minor bowl implications this weekend:
Kansas State at West Virginia: Thursday night's game won’t have any effect on bowl eligibility (both teams are already in), but Baylor needs Kansas State to win to make sure they’re still a marquee opponent for the end of the season. Of course, a Wildcats win makes the Bears’ loss at Morgantown look even worse, but so it goes.
North Carolina at Duke: The Heels need to win one of their final two games (Thursday night versus their rivals, next weekend hosting NC State) to get a sixth win, but if they clich it against the Devils it would also propel Georgia Tech to an ACC title game date with Florida State.
Eastern Kentucky at Florida: If the Gators (with a fired but still coaching Will Muschamp on the sidelines) don’t win this against the Colonels (who are 9-2 in FCS play), they’ll need to beat the Seminoles to get bowl eligible.
Maryland at Michigan: If the Wolverines win this, they clinch bowl eligibility. If they don’t, they’ll need to beat Ohio State to avoid missing the postseason.
Northwestern at Purdue: The Wildcats’ win at Notre Dame was huge for their bowl eligibility chances, but they have to sweep their final two (this game and home against Illinois) to get to six.
South Alabama at South Carolina: If the Gamecocks don’t get win number six here, they’ll need to do so at Clemson in their regular season finale.
Ole Miss at Arkansas: The feisty Razorbacks can eliminate the Rebels from the SEC West race and New Years Six conversations with a win here. (Remember: If Ole Miss wins this game and the Egg Bowl while Auburn wins the Iron Bowl, the Rebels go to the SEC title game.) This would also clinch win number six for Arkansas, who goes to Missouri next weekend.
Stanford at California: With both teams at 5-5, the winner of The Big Game will be bowl eligible, while the loser will have to survive tough finale tests (Stanford goes to UCLA, Cal hosts BYU).
Missouri at Tennessee: The Vols can get bowl eligible and propel Georgia to the SEC title game with a win here. (If Tennessee falls short, they do get Vandy next week with a second chance at win number six.)
USC at UCLA: All kinds of Pac-12 South implications here. If UCLA wins out, they’ll get Oregon in the title game, while the Trojans would need to win here and have Arizona State lose against either Wazzu or Arizona to take the division.
Oregon State at Washington: Their upset against Arizona State in last week’s late-night game got Oregon State to five wins, but they’ll need to either win at Washington or defeat their rival Ducks in the Civil War to get to a bowl. This seems like a likelier candidate. If the Huskies drop this game, they'll need an Apple Cup win next weekend to lock in a postseason trip.
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