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Three keys to the Elite Eight clash between Gonzaga and Duke

Jeff Eisenberg
·Senior writer

In 1999, guards Matt Santangelo and Richie Frahm led 10th-seeded Gonzaga on a stunning Elite Eight run, starting the process of transforming a little-known small-conference program into one of college basketball's most prominent brands.

Sixteen years later, the Zags are finally back in the Elite Eight and again one win away from the program's first Final Four.

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Another No. 1 seed stands in Gonzaga's path, though the Zags aren't the plucky little underdogs they were in 1999 entering a 67-62 loss to eventual national champion UConn. Gonzaga has been a season-long fixture in the AP top 10 and is just a 2.5-point underdog against a top-seeded Duke team with a rotation of eight former McDonald's All-Americans.

The matchup between Gonzaga and Duke will determine which team wins the South Region and joins No. 1 seeds Kentucky and Wisconsin and either Michigan State or Louisville at the Final Four in Indianapolis next weekend. A look at three keys to the matchup between the Blue Devils and Zags:

1. Can Gonzaga defend Justise Winslow?

Duke's best lineup in recent weeks has been a three-guard look with 6-foot-6 wing Justise Winslow sliding down to power forward. That look creates a mismatch against Gonzaga since Mark Few plays with two big men on the floor at all times.

Six-foot-9 Kyle Wiltjer will have a size advantage on Winslow when he posts up at one end, but he lacks the lateral quickness to stay with Winslow off the dribble or to chase him off ball at the other end. Few could switch Byron Wesley onto Winslow, but that would leave Wiltjer trying to stay with guard Matt Jones or Grayson Allen.

Defending Winslow is critical because he has been Duke's best player in the NCAA tournament so far. He sparked the run that put away Robert Morris in the opening round, he delivered 13 points and 12 rebounds against San Diego State and he carried the Blue Devils past Utah by scoring 21 points on an array of jump shots, drives and transition layups.

2. Will outside shots fall for either team in Houston?

Duke and Utah combined to shoot 28 percent from behind the arc on Friday. Gonzaga and UCLA were an even more anemic 18.8 percent. Given that those shooting performances came in the same domed football stadium at which Butler and UConn staged one of the ugliest title games in recent memory, it has sparked questions over whether NRG Stadium is just a venue that is not conducive to perimeter shots.

Players from both teams downplayed such concerns during interviews on Saturday, but research from stats guru Ken Pomeroy suggests there could be something to that discussion. In the 15 games played at NRG Stadium prior to Sunday's Elite Eight clash, teams have shot 32.2 percnet from behind the arc, well below the 36.3 percent they averaged during the course of those seasons.

Adjusting to shooting in the dome will be crucial for both teams because both are reliant on the 3-point shot. Duke is 33rd nationally in threes made and 24th in 3-point shooting percentage. Gonzaga is 40th nationally in threes made and eighth in 3-point shooting percentage. Both play inside-out, punishing teams who double the post by burying outside shots.

3. Can Gonzaga's big men dominate like they did against UCLA?

While Gonzaga has a senior-laden backcourt that shoots exceptionally well from the perimeter, the biggest reason it outclassed UCLA to reach the Elite Eight was the dominance of its frontcourt. Przemek Karnowski, Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis complement one another extremely well because they each have such different skill sets.

Karnowski overpowered Tony Parker and Thomas Welsh with his back-to-the-basket game in the paint on Friday, scoring 18 points on only 11 shots and even dazzling the crowd at NRG Stadium in Houston with a gorgeous behind-the-back assist. Sabonis came off the bench to deliver 12 points on 6-for-9 shooting and Wiltjer had a couple nice hook shots in the paint even though his outside shot wasn't falling.

The ability of Karnowski to avoid foul trouble while defending Jahlil Okafor and perhaps get Okafor into foul trouble at the other end will be critical to Gonzaga's chances. The Zags are a much better team when Karnowski is there to provide low-post scoring and to protect the rim.

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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at daggerblog@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!