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Predicting Friday's four Sweet 16 winners
The Sweet 16 continues Friday with the East Regional in Syracuse and the South Regional in Houston. Below is a preview and prediction for all four games.
SOUTH REGION
No. 2 Gonzaga vs. No. 11 UCLA: This matchup between the Zags and Bruins is the ultimate role reversal. A small-conference power that rose from obscurity by pulling massive March upsets enters as a big favorite against one of college basketball's most storied programs. Where Gonzaga has an advantage in this game is with its multi-facted scoring attack and its superior depth. The Zags boast the nation's fourth most efficient offense, can score from inside and out and go two deep at every position. UCLA could not keep pace with Gonzaga in an 87-74 home loss in December, but the Bruins are better now than they were then. They're defending better as a unit. They're playing through Tony Parker more consistently. And Bryce Alford is taking smarter shots. To stay in striking distance or perhaps even pull an upset, one matchup UCLA needs to exploit is Kevon Looney's edge in quickness and athleticism over Kyle Wiltjer. While Wiltjer is likely to get his points at one end, the Bruins need Looney to take advantage of his defensive shortcomings at the other. Predicted winner: Gonzaga.
No 1 Duke vs. No. 5 Utah: Duke looked dominant in stretches in victories against Robert Morris and San Diego State, but Utah poses challenges those teams did not. The Utes boast one of the nation's premier players in Delon Wright, a 6-foot-5 senior with the size and length of a wing and the court vision and pass-first instincts of a point guard. His size makes him a difficult assignment for either Tyus Jones or Quinn Cook and his ability in a pick and roll could pose problems for Jahlil Okafor. Defense has been one of Utah's strengths all season. They have three 7 footers to throw at Okafor and they've been good defending against the pick and roll all season, but they'll have to do a far better job than San Diego State did of stopping Duke in transition and forcing the Blue Devils to score against a set defense. Duke still has the talent advantage in this game because of its array of perimeter weapons and Okafor's unparalleled post game. But if Utah can keep Duke out of transition and shoots better from behind the arc than the Blue Devils, the Utes are a threat to pull an upset. Predicted winner: Duke
EAST REGION
No. 4 Louisville vs. No. 8 NC State: Predicting an NC State game is always a challenge because you never know what version of the Wolfpack you'll get. Will it be the confident, aggressive group that owns victories against Duke, North Carolina, Louisville and Villanova this season? Or will it be the listless, cold-shooting team that trailed Duke 42-17 in the ACC quarterfinals? The tough shot making ability of Trevor Lacey, the perimeter shooting of Ralston Turner and an improving interior game make NC State a tough out when the Wolfpack are playing well, but Louisville has looked dangerous as well in this tournament. Quentin Snider's emergence at point guard has softened the blow of Chris Jones' dismissal and Wayne Blackshear's scoring has provided badly needed support for Terry Rozier and Montrezl Harrell. What this game could come down to is whether Louisville can continue to make perimeter shots. The Cardinals have shot fairly well in their first two NCAA tournament games, but that was still a season-long weakness for them. Predicted winner: NC State.
No. 3 Oklahoma vs. No. 7 Michigan State: With Villanova and Virginia going down early, the winner of this contest will probably be the unlikely favorite to reach the Final Four out of the topsy-turvy East Region. Michigan State might be the favorite Friday in spite of its lower seed if Branden Dawson and Travis Trice continue to play at the same high level they have all postseason. Dawson has scored at least 14 points and grabbed at least six boards in all five of the Spartans' games since the start of the Big Ten tournament. Trice is coming off a 23-point performance against Virginia and has emerged as a dangerous scorer and facilitator off the dribble to go with his outside shooting. Michigan State has been comfortable all season at a fast pace, but Oklahoma's transition attack and ability to attack the offensive glass pose major challenges. The Spartans will also need Denzel Valentine to force Buddy Hield into tough shots because rest assured that the ultra-aggressive Big 12 player of the year isn't going to stop shooting. Predicted winner: Michigan State.
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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at daggerblog@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
