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Dominant seasons by CHL veterans poor predictor of pro success

Brendan Shinnimin

's dominant performance down the stretch led to a contract with the Phoenix Coyotes. It's unfortunate, but I doubt he makes that team any time soon, but virtue of the fact that the NHL has become a young man's game, and the general theme among top scorers who make it to the pro ranks "score early, score often".

A while ago I compared Emerson Etem to other dominant WHL scorers since 1997, and, using a similar method, I'm looking to compare recent junior players (I went back to 2008) and adjust their point totals for both league and year. One goal in the 2012 WHL (where there were 6.74 goals per game), for instance, is worth more than one goal in the 2011 OHL (which had 7.26 goals per game).

The closest comparable to Shinnimin is Yannick Riendeau, an undrafted winger who put up 126 points, scoring 58 goals, for the Drummondville Voltigeurs in 64 games back in 2009. Riendeau was a consistent scorer throughout his "Q" career but broke out at age 20. He's now a point-per-game player in the ECHL with the Reading Royals.

The era adjustment all boils down to how a player does relative to Jeff Skinner's 2010 season, when he scored 50 goals and 90 points in 64 games for the Kitchener Rangers. Every Buzzing the Net ranking is obliged to incorporate Jeff Skinner in some aspect, and adjusted for league and era, Shinnimin had 59.8 goals and 138.2 points for the Tri-City Americans last season, which would rank him 1st in scoring since 2008.

One problem, however: Skinner was 17 at the time, and Shinnimin is an overage player. The top-10 consists of five 20-year olds: Shinnimin, Riendeau, Casey Pierro-Zabotel, Yanni Gourde and Adam Hughesman. Pierro-Zabotel, the only one other than Riendeau who wasn't in junior this year, is also in the ECHL.

It's rare for players who played their 20-year old season in the junior ranks to make the NHL. No top CHL scorer has in quite some time. Most of those players are snatched up and are playing in the professional ranks before they hit 20 to hone their skill-set against larger men in the AHL or reaping rewards for the team that drafted them in the NHL. Examples there include John Tavares, Mathieu Perreault, and Jordan Eberle.

The other thing we need to adjust for is games played. Much of the best talent is scooped up every December to compete in the World Juniors, leaving some of the older guys behind to rack up goals in their absence. By normalizing every player's games played to 64 games (Jeff Skinner in 2010) we can find out who were the most dominant scorers each year.

Tavares in 2008 and Sven Bärtschi from this season are tied with 128 PRS (or Points Relative to Skinner). Keep in mind Tavares was 17 at the time, and Bärtschi is 19.

Here they are, sorted by age. The 16-year olds:

Year

League

Player

Team

G+/64

Pts+/64

2012

QMJHL

Nathan MacKinnon

Halifax

33.2

86.1

2008

OHL

Taylor Hall

Windsor

46.1

85.3

2011

OHL

Alex Galchenyuk

Sarnia

28.0

78.1

Only three of them were top-20 scorers in the respective leagues in the last five years, but the one who has made the NHL is already arguably a star. This bodes well for Nathan MacKinnon, whose 78 points in 58 games were judged to be more impressive than Hall's 84 in 63.

That slacker Alex Galchenyuk is far behind this season after losing pretty much all of it due to injury.

17-year olds:

Year

League

Player

Team

G+/64

Pts+/64

2008

OHL

John Tavares

Oshawa

43.8

128.0

2008

OHL

Steven Stamkos

Sarnia

61.4

110.2

2010

OHL

Tyler Seguin

Plymouth

48.8

107.7

2011

OHL

Ryan Strome

Niagara

31.1

104.4

2009

WHL

Evander Kane

Vancouver

53.8

100.7

2011

QMJHL

Jonathan Huberdeau

Saint John

42.5

100.3

2009

OHL

Ryan Ellis

Windsor

25.0

99.9

2011

OHL

Nail Yakupov

Sarnia

46.2

99.4

2011

WHL

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

Red Deer

29.6

98.3

2012

QMJHL

Mikhail Grigorenko

Québec

42.1

92.2

Two top prospects from this season and three from last season, so a pretty impressive showing by the 17-year old age group. The guys who have broken in are already stars, unfortunately, Ryan Ellis hasn't been able to keep up his torrid junior scoring pace. Of course, he falls under a different category since he's a defenceman.

18-year olds:

Year

League

Player

Team

G+/64

Pts+/64

2008

QMJHL

Jakub Voracek

Halifax

40.5

122.0

2010

OHL

Taylor Hall

Windsor

44.9

119.0

2012

WHL

Ty Rattie

Portland

54.5

112.2

2009

OHL

Cody Hodgson

Brampton

52.6

111.1

2010

WHL

Brayden Schenn

Brandon

39.3

107.4

2011

QMJHL

Sean Couturier

Drmmndvlle

41.1

105.9

2011

OHL

Tyler Toffoli

Ottawa

51.4

101.6

2010

OHL

Taylor Beck

Guelph

40.9

97.6

2009

WHL

Brandon Kozun

Calgary

38.0

96.0

2011

OHL

Christian Thomas

Oshawa

50.2

96.0

The Philadelphia Flyers control 30% of this list, but unfortunately, it's only Jakub Voracek who has become a regular NHL scorer. He had 49 points this season in Philadelphia plus 10 more in the playoffs. Sean Couturier and Brayden Schenn are waiting for their NHL breakouts. Cody Hodgson had 41 points in 83 games this season and Taylor Hall is still Taylor Hall, but Taylor Beck and Brandon Kozun are AHLers, and Christian Thomas is likely to end up there next season.

19-year olds:

Year

League

Player

Team

G+/64

Pts+/64

2012

WHL

Sven Bärtschi

Portland

46.3

128.0

2008

OHL

Brett MacLean

Oshawa

64.5

124.9

2008

QMJHL

Claude Giroux

Gatineau

44.9

123.3

2012

WHL

Mark Stone

Brandon

41.0

119.3

2010

WHL

Jordan Eberle

Regina

59.8

119.0

2009

OHL

John Tavares

London

67.1

118.9

2008

OHL

Justin Azevedo

Kitchener

41.4

118.4

2009

OHL

Chris Terry

Plymouth

47.7

113.5

2008

QMJHL

Mathieu Perreault

Bathurst

34.0

112.2

2011

OHL

Ryan Ellis

Windsor

25.4

111.4

Repeat names on the list include Tavares and Ellis. Claude Giroux is one of the best players in the NHL right now and Mathieu Perreault has become a very good player in Washington, but that's about it for NHL talent. As Neate reminded me, Brett MacLean played with Tavares in 2008, so his stats were bumped up. Justin Azevedo and Chris Terry are both AHLers. Mark Stone ought to be in the NHL next year, as should Bärtschi.

Finally, the 20-year olds. Spot the NHLers:

Year

League

Player

Team

G+/64

Pts+/64

2009

QMJHL

Yannick Riendeau

Drmmndvll

60.3

126.0

2012

WHL

Brendan Shinnimin

Tri-City

55.5

124.3

2012

QMJHL

Yanni Gourde

Victoriaville

33.8

116.7

2011

QMJHL

Philip-Michaël Devos

Gatineau

45.8

107.3

2011

WHL

Tyler Johnson

Spokane

49.1

103.7

2009

QMJHL

Dany Masse

Drmmndvll

43.1

103.5

2011

OHL

Jason Akeson

Kitchener

22.0

103.2

2012

WHL

Adam Hughesman

Tri-City

45.8

103.1

2009

QMJHL

Cedric McNicoll

Shawinigan

38.9

102.4

2009

WHL

Casey Pierro-Zabotel

Vancouver

34.2

102.2

A disturbing trend is the amount of hyphenated names making their way into hockey.

Oh, I also looked at Sidney Crosby to compare, whose dominance with Rimouski was the reason I began paying attention to the junior ranks:

Year

League

Player

Team

G+/64

Pts+/64

2004

QMJHL

Sidney Crosby

Rimouski

60.6

146.4

2005

QMJHL

Sidney Crosby

Rimouski

74.2

173.4

He was 16 and 17 those years, if we want at all to compare him to MacKinnon and Tavares at all.