Belleville Bulls goalie Malcolm SubbanFew will be surprised if Malcolm Subban and Andrei Vasilevski at opposite ends of the ice for the gold medal game of the world junior hockey championship in Ufa, Russia this January.
Both goalies have a long way to go in their progression to being NHL starters. Each is an early favourite to the starting goalie for a junior hockey powerhouse.
How will they fare against one another? Chris Boucher, a Montreal-based scout, has compiled data from four games played each by Subban and Vasilevski, not necessarily against one-another, but in an attempt to determine which goaltender is superior.
My scouting reports for goalies focus on their ability to make saves, make big saves, and control rebounds. The results of these attributes are added together to produce the goaltender's rating. The highest possible rating is 4.00, while the lowest possible rating is 0.00. The higher the value the better a goalie has played. [Boucher Scouting]
Typically, I judge goaltenders by the simple criteria of save percentage. At the NHL level, the data is provided for goaltenders at even strength, which balances out the scales for goalies who see a lot of penalty-kill time, when goals are more frequent. For our purposes though, save percentage at the junior level works as an elephant gun. It's powerful, but imprecise, best used to be able to say that the London Knights' Michael Houser, who had a .925 save percentage in 62 games, was probably a better goaltender last season than the Kingston Frontenacs' Igor Bobkov, who had a .902 save percentage.Read More »from Malcolm Subban, Andrei Vasilevski: Which first-rounder is better by the numbers?