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Week 4 Starts/Sit: Bills to pay

There's byes and a showdown in London to consider this weekend. To help your Week 4 cause (full season or daily), here's a few players I expect to look better/worse than usual on Sunday.

STARTS

QB - Derek Carr, Oak at Chi ($37 in DFS) - Carr currently holds the 13th-highest starting percentage among QBs in Yahoo leagues this week. I like him much more than that. He's averaged 332.5 passing yards and has thrown 5 TD passes (with just 1 INT) in his past two games. And this week he faces a Bears defense that has allowed the highest QB Rating (123.8) and the second-most TD passes (8) in the league. As a rookie, Carr didn't have much to work with. But that's changed this season. He's got a legit go-to wideout in Amari Cooper, better secondary options in Michael Crabtree and Seth Roberts (who I actually like more than Crabtree) and there's reason for the defense to pay attention to what's going on in the backfield with the game-breaking threat of Latavius Murray. Armed now with playmakers, I see Carr as a top 7 QB play this week.

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A big opportunity knocks for Williams this week. (Getty)
A big opportunity knocks for Williams this week. (Getty)

 RB - Karlos Williams, Buf vs NYG ($15)

- In DFS leagues, you really can't pass on the value of Williams this week. In a predominantly backup role, Williams has still managed to score in three straight games, and he turned 12 carries into 110 rushing yards last week. He's leading the league in Yards Per Carry (7.8) and, with LeSean McCoy doubtful for Sunday (hammy), he's now leading the Bills backfield. The matchup is not ideal (the Giants have allowed just 3.4 YPC this season), but volume and goal line usage makes a 80-100 yard, TD performance very possible.

 RB - Lance Dunbar, Dal at NO ($13) - Last week, with Brandon Weeden making the start behind center, Dallas running backs combined for 31 touches compared to just four touches for wide receivers. It's pretty obvious that the Cowboys plan is to minimize the potential for downfield disaster with Weeden. In that game, Dunbar caught 10 passes for 100 yards, the second time in three games that he has reached 70 receiving yards and eight receptions. Especially in PPR leagues, expect the good times to keep rolling for Dunbar. Six-plus catches and 60-plus receiving yards should be commonplace for Dunbar while Weeden is in there. Even as a Flex play in standard leagues, Dunbar has merit this week against a Saints defense allowing the fourth-most yards from scrimmage per game (397).

 WR - Percy Harvin, Buf vs NYG ($19) - Karlos Williams isn't the only Bills player I like this week.
I'm definitely also backing Buffalo breakout star QB Tyrod Taylor. And, going hand-in-hand with that, I like Harvin, who should be the go-to aerial option with Sammy Watkins (calf) sitting out. Harvin has produced as a backend WR2, thus far, and he has a nice thing going on with Taylor (has caught 16 of 18 targets). With an expected elevated role this week against a Giants defense allowing a league-high 335.7 passing yards per game, Harvin could cross over the century mark in yards from scrimmage (always a threat to add some rushing yards to the mix) this week for the first time in '15.

WR - Marvin Jones, Cin vs KC ($15) - Andy Dalton has let Jones join the Bengals offensive scoring party (28.3 PPG) the past couple weeks, connecting with the receiver for a TD in each of the past two contests. Jones has been a pay dirt moneymaker for Dalton, having caught 12 TDs in his past 17 regular-season games. Jones, who is tied for 10th among wideouts in Red Zone targets, has a great shot at a TD in his thrid consecutive game this week, facing a KC defense that has big-time issues in the secondary, allowing 287 passing yards per game and a QB rating north of 100. The Chiefs should be helped by the return of suspended CB Sean Smith, but there's still holes to be exploited on the backend of that Chiefs defense.

 TE - Richard Rodgers, GB at SF ($14) - I'm going pretty deep here with a tight end that, outside of a Week 2 TD, has done very little to write home about. But I think that changes this weekend as Green Bay heads to San Francisco without backup tight end Andrew Quarless (MCL). With the depth now razor thin at tight end, I expect Rodgers to see a season-high snap count. And against a 49ers defense allowing 31 points per game, I like Rodgers' potential to make a splash this week in the passing game (especially with receiver Davante Adams also looking doubtful).

[Week 4 rankings: Quarterback Running Back Receiver | Flex | All Positions]

SITS

QB - Peyton Manning, Den vs MIn ($40) - The elder Manning has certainly looked much better the past couple weeks as Denver has let him run the offense more in the manner of what he's done since he arrived in Denver. But he's still thrown a pick in every game, he's been the fifth-most sacked QB (8) and he's faced, in terms of fantasy points allowed to the QB position, the easiest schedule of all QBs to this point. His ability to flirt with, yet avert, disaster the past couple weeks could diminish this week against a Minnesota defense that, according to ProFootballFocus, grades out as a top 5 unit in both the pass rush and pass coverage. Led by stud safety Harrison Smith, the Vikings have allowed the second-fewest pass plays of 20-plus yards. While Manning could be alright in supreme dink-dunk mode this week, I don't see top 12 upside.

RB - DeMarco Murray, Phi at Was   ($28) - Returning from a hamstring injury this week, Murray is currently 18th among RBs in start% this week. That's showing a lot of faith in a guy that has 21 carries for 11 yards this season and who has a backup (Ryan Mathews) who ran for 108 yards last week in Murray's absence and also scored a TD through the air. Not only is a playing time a major question for Murray this week (can't forget that Darren Sproles is also likely to get his usual 10 touches), but the matchup is dubious - the Redskins have allowed just 75 yards per game on the ground, a mere yard behind league-leading Buffalo.

RB - Jonathan Stewart, Car at TB ($23) - Stewart's start% this week is among the top 20 at the RB position, but I don't see him as anything more than a desperate flex play. He's banged up (perennially?) with a sore shin, though he practiced Friday, which gives him good odds of playing. But his odds of scoring a TD aren't nearly as good. At the goal line, he's looking like No. 4 on the pecking order in the Carolina offense behind Cam Newton, Greg Olsen and Mike Tolbert. So, while the matchup (Tampa Bay has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the RB position) looks juicy, Stewart can't be trusted. He's already faced two subpar run defenses in Jacksonville and New Orleans, and he has yet to score a TD or put up more than 62 yards on the ground.

WR - Mike Evans, TB vs Car ($25) - Tampa Bay rookie QB Jameis Winston ranks 28th among quarterbacks in QB Rating (minimum 45 pass attempts). Carolina CB Josh Norman grades out as the No. 2 corner (according to PFF) in pass coverage, having heavily contributed to limiting No. 1 wideouts DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Robinson and Brandin Cooks to an average of 5 fantasy PPG. Forget about looking for a third strike against Evans - those two are damning enough. This week, I don't see a top 25 receiving line being in the cards for Evans, who averaged 5.5 fantasy points in two contests against the Panthers in '14.

WR - John Brown, Ari vs StL ($22) -  Boy, for a guy that has gone over 73 receiving yards just once in his 19-game NFL career, I should be surprised at how much people love Brown (sits at 27th among WRs in start% this week). But, I get it, his big-play skills are tantalizing. Unfortunately he doesn't get a lot of opportunity in the Arizona offense to flash those down-field talents. He currently ranks 37th among WRs in targets (17). He's also only caught one of QB Carson's Palmer's seven red zone scoring tosses (Larry Fitzgerald has dominated that department with five such catches). The deep ball opportunities look especially bad this week for Brown against a relentless St. Louis pass rush. That has helped the Rams limit big plays, as they have allowed the fourth-fewest pass plays of 20-plus yards (7) and have yet to give up a bomb of 40 yards or more.

TE - Jordan Cameron, Mia vs NYJ ($17) - Miami QB Ryan Tannehill ranks second behind Tom Brady in goal line pass attempts (8) this season, but not once has he gone to his towering tight end in those situations. Cameron has yet to score this season and, after topping 60 receiving yards in each of his first two games, he was held to just 16 yards last week as he played through a sore groin. That injury still lingers as he heads to London this week to face a Jets defense that is allowing just 32 yards per game to tight ends and has not yielded a touchdown to the position.