Pressing Questions: The San Diego Padres

Normally you walk into Petco Park and start thinking about a fish taco or a specialty beer.

This year, buy a scorecard first.

It’s been a while since the Padres were especially relevant. They haven’t had a winning record since 2010 and they haven’t seen the playoffs since 2006. Their last October series win dates back to 1998, when they hoisted the National League pennant before the Yankees swept them.

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So no one can fault new general manager A.J. Preller for shuffling like a madman during his first Padres offseason. The Friars made three blockbuster trades (check out that snappy outfield, Upton-Myers-Kemp), then chased it with a late signing on a major free-agent pitcher, James Shields. It’s a new team, and it’s a fun team. And for the first time in a while, it's actually a buzzy, name-brand team.

Of course, the playability of Petco overwhelms any San Diego fantasy discussion. Although the fences were brought in two years ago, Petco has nonetheless taxed scoring by 17 percent and batting average by nine percent over that period. Left-handed power hitters do fine here, but right-handed power takes a 24-percent bath. It’s still the most pitcher-dominated park in the majors.

With that in mind, we open this Padres PQ at a logical place – the pitcher’s mound.

Q: What becomes of Shields at his new address? 

First things first, let’s throw the Big Game James nickname in the shredder. When we last saw Shields in October, he was posting a messy 6.12 ERA over 25 innings for the Royals. His career playoff ERA is 5.46, covering 11 starts. Give James Worthy his nickname back for good and let’s call it a day.

Shields had to wait for his free-agent payday, but earlier this week he turned into Big Contract James. The Padres handed him a four-year, $75 million package, ready to park him at the front of the rotation.

Those fading Shields for 2015 will find some ways to support the argument. He’s entering his age-33 season and his strikeout rate has fallen two straight years (last year’s 7.14 K/9 is actually a negative in most capped leagues). San Diego’s freshly-assembled defense could be a mess, a far cry from the plus units Shields enjoyed in Tampa Bay and Kansas City.

That doesn’t mean the Padres threw their money away, of course. Shields also trimmed his walk rate down to 1.74/9 last year, his KC earned-run average never went past 3.21, and he’s one of the more durable pitchers around. He’s logged 932.2 innings over the last four years, easily the most in baseball, and he’s topped the 200 mark for eight straight years. If you’re in a deeper league where any muffed pick is especially hazardous, Shields brings an interesting floor.

The Yahoo fantasy crew has Shields slotted between 17th and 25th on the starting-pitcher board (my current rank: 19). At the end of the day, you can’t ignore the Petco float and the cushy womb of National League baseball. It’s a floor pick all the way, but that doesn’t make Shields a bad pick.

Q: Who looks good in the rest of the rotation? 

When you consider the starters lined up behind Shields, the signature signing makes more sense. There’s plenty of talent in the group (audited smartly here by Paul Sporer of Fangraphs), but unlike Shields, the other primary starters come with more downside.

The risk-reward siren of Andrew Cashner sits in the No. 2 slot. Last year’s 2.55 ERA and 1.13 WHIP were lovely, but they came in spite of a tumbling strikeout clip (just 6.8/9, a silly-low number when you consider his raw stuff). A heavy ground-ball trend and Petco’s wide-open spaces make for a fun backdrop, but Cashner’s health is also a perennial concern. A shoulder problem cost him 12 starts last season, and he’s made four DL trips in his last four years. I never say never on most players, especially someone with this much talent, but I always assume someone in the room will want Cashner more than I do.

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Tyson Ross is also coming off an outstanding year (2.81/1.21, 195 strikeouts), and he might have more upside than Cashner (Ross strikes out more batters and has an even loftier ground-ball rate). But Ross also had an elbow issue late last year, on the heels of a season that saw him throw sliders a ridiculous 41 percent of the time (far and away the most in the league). I realize most pitchers fall into two categories – those currently hurt and those soon to be so – but in the case of Ross, you can almost hear the ticking of the watch. With an ADP around 100, I’ll likely avoid him.

Ian Kennedy might turn into the value pick of the staff. His ADP is about 70 picks after Ross’s, probably because of Kennedy’s ordinary 3.63 ERA. But he’s coming off a 207-strikeout year, and he actually had the highest K/9 rate in last year’s rotation.

Kennedy’s peripheral-suggested ERAs were lower than the front door number last year, and it’s interesting to note his ERA was a lot higher at home (3.93 at Petco, 3.32 elsewhere). Write that off as a stone fluke. Kennedy looks like a nice foundation pick for the second half of your rotation.

There's not much of a mixed-league case for No. 5 starter Odrisamer Despaigne, but keep a couple of longshot tickets in mind behind him (Josh Johnson, Brandon Morrow). Both of those star-crossed righties crash-landed in Toronto, mostly due to injuries, but there's no better park for a pitcher to rebuild his career.

Q: How about the outfield? We haven’t been this excited since Gary Coleman and Dave Winfield roamed the San Diego greenery. 

The Padres picked an interesting time to buy on Myers (off a wrist injury) and Kemp (dealing with an arthritic hip, though he still played 150 games). Upton’s value has been stable in recent years, but the Braves might have been motivated to move him a year in front of free agency.

It’s a shame all of these sluggers are right-handed – a left-handed power hitter would play fine here – but Upton, Myers and Kemp certainly have enough brawn to keep themselves in fantasy relevance. Be careful not to pay for stolen bases – Upton hasn’t seen double-digits since 2012, and Kemp’s shut it down for three years.

Kemp and Upton both went in the third round of this week’s LABR mixed draft, though it was Kemp who surprisingly flew off the board first. I think that’s a mistake, given his medical file (one full year in three); I’d give him lukewarm consideration in the fourth round but probably talk myself out of it. Upton’s scan justifies a third-round tag in my book, at least to the later part of the proceedings. Myers at Pick 166 is delightful – he’s all upside at that price.

Defensive ability is always a secondary concern for fantasy purposes; obviously we're not being graded on it. So long as a player isn't going to kick his way out of the lineup, we generally don't sweat his glovework. But when you look at San Diego's defensive lineup in total, it's a red flag for the pitchers. There isn't a plus defender in the outfield – Myers in particular is an interesting question in center field – and the infield could be a mess, even if good-glove, no-hit Clint Barmes settles in at shortstop.

Bordertown Babble: I wouldn’t blame anyone (cough, Teddy Bell, cough) who swore off Jedd Gyorko after last year’s nightmare first half (.162/.213/.270), though a foot problem explained part of the slump. Gyorko did rebound in the second half, somewhat (.260/.347/.398), showing better patience, even if the slugging percentage still leaves us cold. Bottom line, he hit 10 homers in a terrible year and 23 in a solid rookie year. Second base is a rather thin position. You have to at least consider Gyorko in the Round 11-15 area . . . Maybe Will Middlebrooks is an offensive improvement over Yangervis Solarte at third base, maybe he’s not.  Both guys are limited on defense, lining up with the team theme. Solarte's angle is versatility and line drives, while Middlebrooks offers some pop but with batting-average risk . . . Skipper Bud Black usually gets exceptional mileage from his bullpen, which means the Padres should be fine even if closer Joaquin Benoit struggles, gets hurt, or is traded. Handcuffing is one of the all-time overrated fantasy strategies, but if you’re in a league that puts value on non-closing relievers, be aware of Kevin Quackenbush (2.65/1.10, better than a strikeout per inning). Fun name, ownable game . . . With all the moving parts to the roster, somehow Yonder Alonso is still the first base option. That’s a shame. He’ll hit for a reasonable average and steal the occasional bag (a sneaky 12 over his last 181 games), but he’s never made it to ten homers in a season. He shouldn’t on the field against left-handed pitching (career .648 OPS).