Fantasy is a speculative game. Predict the future, and you look like a genius. Don't, and you're painfully human. Gazing into the crystal ball here's our view on 10 intriguing over/unders for Week 12.
Bolt from the Blue Danario Alexander receiving yards against the Ravens 74.5
Andy — I'll take the UNDER on yards, because I do not trust Philip Rivers at all. (Best feeling I've had this week was dropping him in two leagues for Kaepernick). I do still think DX can find the end zone, however. Still a respectable play. Let's call it four catches for 70 yards, with a score.
Scott — Put me down for the OVER. I love how Alexander has made a big play in three straight weeks, and I love his his target total keeps increasing. Baltimore's secondary isn't a shutdown group, and we all know the Ravens don't play as well on the road.
Dalton — UNDER. This number seems just about right, but I'm going under thinking this game will be lower scoring than expected. That's not to say Alexander isn't a viable weekly fantasy starter as long as his knees hold up.
Assuming he nets the start, Colin Kaepernick combined yards in 'Nawlins 309.5
Brad — OVER. Smart reads, sensational protection, smooth throws...'St. Nick' gifted good fantasy boys and girls with an unforeseen stat line against Chicago, arguably the best all-around defense in the league. Saints have shown some improvement against pass, but still allowing 7.5 YPA over past three and TONS of yards. Definitely see 275 passing, 40 rushing.
Brandon — OVER. More impressed with his NFL starting debut I could not be. He may not have an encore in which he's as locked in throwing the ball as he was against the Bears, but I bet he runs more at New Orleans, and I'd expect Drew Brees and company to push the offensive pace of the game much more than the Bears did.
Andy — OVER, maybe by 80 yards. This number is way too low, considering the defense involved. New Orleans is dreadful against both the run and pass.
Jaguar Juggle: Justin Blackmon or Cecil Shorts
Brandon — SHORTS. Even in Blackmon's stellar breakout last week, Shorts still did his thing (81 yards, TD). Shorts has been a double-digit fantasy producer six times this season compared to once for Blackmon.
Andy — SHORTS, please. He's been the better play over multiple weeks. Blackmon delivered something like 98.8 percent of his total year-to-date fantasy scoring in one game.
Scott — Trust the consistent man, and that's SHORTS. I need to see Blackmon do it a second time before he can resubmit Circle of Trust paperwork.
Perpetually dinged Julio Jones receiving yards versus friendly Tampa 79.5
Andy — UNDER. Awesome match-up, clearly, but we need to factor in the possibility that he'll to tap out of the game, again. It's really a shame he's not at full strength right now, with Tampa Bay and New Orleans on deck.
Scott — Until we know how healthy Jones really is (as in, we need to see it on the field), it's a forced UNDER. Explore all possibilities, gamers.
Dalton — UNDER. I hope I'm wrong as an owner of Jones in many leagues, and Tampa Bay has allowed 8.2 YPA this year - the third-highest total in the NFL. But it really does seem like Jones is pretty seriously banged up, something that's become a theme with him throughout his early career in the league.
Vick Ballard, who out-snapped Donald Brown 46-to-19 last week, total yards versus giving Buffalo 89.5
Dalton — UNDER. I like the matchup, but Ballard has reached 90 total yards in just two games this season. His usage is the worry here, as he's been given more than 16 carries in only one game this year. That's a problem when you don't catch many passes either.
Brad — OVER. Ballard has dominated touches and quietly tallied admirable numbers in competitive formats. Buffalo's stuffing of Miami last week more of a statement of 'Fins' issues in run-blocking. Bills giving up a staggering 160.8 total yards per game to RBs.
Brandon — OVER. Ballard's averaging 17 touches over the past five weeks. If he gets more of the same against Buffalo, which he should, it shouldn't be too difficult to top this number against the most generous fantasy run defense.
Pick a passer: Andy Dalton (vs. Oak), Eli Manning (vs. GB) or Josh Freeman (at Atl)
Scott — I like the scoring potential between the Bucs and Falcons; there's a big top over the Pirate Ship this year. FREEMAN will be throwing late and will get you what you need.
Dalton — DALTON. The Raiders are truly a joke. And the Bengals have just enough of a vulnerable defense for Oakland to keep scoring as well, meaning Cincy won't go in a shell in the second half. The Bengals' struggling rushing attack helps Dalton as well.
Brad — DALTON. The Red Rider BB-Gun is going to shoot several Raider's eye out. Oakland has surrendered at least 22 fantasy points to a passer in three consecutive weeks.
Marcedes Lewis, who faces a Titans D that's allowed the most scores to tight ends, .5 TDs
Dalton — UNDER. There's no sound reasoning here other than, when in doubt, take the under.
Brad — OVER. Henne Happens. After not logging a TD since Week 5, the oversized target found the end-zone twice last week in Houston. Fully expect Jacksonville to move the ball well in the encore, presenting a handful of red-zone opportunities for Lewis. He's worth a test drive in deeper leagues.
Brandon — UNDER. The Titans haven't allowed a TE touchdown in their past four games, and they are the toughest defense in fantasy against opposing TEs in that span. Henne definitely has the Jags' passing game looking up, but the smart money is still the under for a guy that has four touchdowns in his past 24 games.
St. Louis D/ST combined sacks/turnovers against rookie Ryan Lindley and the fading Cardinals 5.5
Brad — OVER. Lindley was borderline disastrous after overtaking John Skelton last week in Atlanta. Operating behind a horrendous offensive line and facing a Quinn/Long tandem that's recorded 18.5 sacks, he will be covered in grass stains come game's end. Wouldn't be surprised if STL eclipsed this number in QB take-downs alone.
Andy — UNDER. I'm banking on two things here: 1) This is a big number, so he can still have a terrible game while not reaching six combined sacks-plus-TOs, and 2) he's no lock to actually finish the game. Brad didn't say "combined sacks/turnovers against Arizona quarterbacks." He specified Lindley.
Matt Forte, possibly down Jay Cutler again, total yards versus Minnesota 89.5
Brandon — UNDER. If it's Campbell at QB, I don't give him a chance. With Cutler, I still think he might be a hair short.
Andy — OVER. Maybe I'm just being a crazy fool Bears fan here, dunno. But I'd like to think they'd ride Forte all day versus Minnesota; I doubt the Vikes will pile up points against Chicago, so the run should be in play all afternoon in this one.
Scott — I'll push Forte OVER that number against a slightly-overrated Minnesota defense, but what I'd really like to see is a touchdown or two. Help a brother out, Matty.
Which new RB scoring source piles up the most points in Week 12: Bryce Brown (vs. Car), Ronnie Hillman (at KC) or Jalen Parmele (vs. Ten)?
Brad — HILLMAN. Many are concerned about a possible three-back rotation, but the rookie should earn most of the early down work against a Chiefs D Papa Smurf would pound. KC allowing 4.6 yards per carry to RBs this year. Run Ronnie Run.
Brandon — BROWN. I like Hillman, but I don't trust he'll get a full featured workload. Brown should, and he's looked good from the moment he arrived in Philly. And the matchup against Carolina is not so daunting, as it allows 4.5 ypc to RBs.
Andy — HILLMAN. Easy. No contest. (OK, it's a contest, but I really like the odds of this Denver-KC game tilting toward the Broncos' run game in the second half).
Scott — HILLMAN. You had me with the words "at Kansas City."
Dalton — HILLMAN. I'm going with the better pedigree, offense and matchup, although hardly guaranteeing it's a sure thing Hillman gets 15+ touches. I like all three of these RB starts this week, but Hillman offers the most upside, both in the short and long term.
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