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Mostly NFL Notes: A 2015 AFC Season Preview
If you missed my NFC preview, check it out here. Now onto my AFC piece, once again filled with fantasy predictions.
AFC East
1. New England Patriots 11-5
2. Miami Dolphins 8-8
3. Buffalo Bills 7-9
4. New York Jets 7-9
Comments/Fantasy predictions: Despite Tom Brady missing games, LeGarrette Blount finishes as a top-25 fantasy back, and Rob Gronkowski proves worthy of being a top-five overall pick...Lamar Miller remains efficient yet continues to disappoint fantasy owners, as the coaching staff still doesn’t view him as a true workhorse (he wasn’t given 20 carries in a game last season)...Ryan Tannehill also lets down his owners, finishing outside the top-15 fantasy quarterbacks. Last year’s 27 TD passes will be tough to repeat unless he greatly improves his 6.9 YPA, and there was a lot of turnaround in the Dolphins’ receiving corps.
The Bills have a shaky quarterback situation and project to be one of the more run heavy teams in the NFL. They also added Percy Harvin, Charles Clay and LeSean McCoy during the offseason. Still, Buffalo gave up a boatload of picks to draft Sammy Watkins No. 4 overall, so they have incentive to see him succeed, and the wideout just recently turned 22 years old. Watkins had more broken tackles during his rookie season than Kelvin Benjamin, Mike Evans, Jeremy Maclin, DeAndre Hopkins, Alshon Jeffery and T.Y. Hilton. It’s easy to make excuses, but Watkins played through broken ribs, a groin injury and later a labral tear in his hip that required offseason surgery, so it’s safe to say he wasn’t exactly performing at 100%. Just because his rookie year didn’t live up to the hype doesn’t mean he can’t reach it in year two...Although to be fair, it remains tough for me to root for Matt Cassel.
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He was playing hurt, but Brandon Marshall got just 1.50 yards per route last season, which tied for 39th among wide receivers. His arrow is pointing down as a member of the Jets...I like the idea of Chris Ivory in a featured role, but I fear he built his career 4.7 YPC in “hitter’s counts” while in New Orleans (he got just 4.1 last year) and has never seen 200 carries or caught 20 balls in a season, so I remain skeptical about all of the optimism about him becoming a viable RB2. It’s not like he dealt with much competition last year either (although admittedly there’s a new regime now).
Headlines of the Week: I Used Ashley Madison For ‘Opposition Research’...“Straight Outta Compton” Not Playing In Compton...Man Dies After Being Run Over By WWII Tank On Jelly Belly Chairman’s Property...Chaos After Wife Spots Man And Mistress At A Football Match On Live TV...World’s Oldest Message In A Bottle Washes Up In Germany After 108 Years At Sea...No Liquid Allowed In Carry On, Woman Drinks Entire Bottle Of Cognac At Airport Security.
AFC North
1. Baltimore Ravens 10-6
2. Pittsburgh Steelers 10-6 (Wild Card)
3. Cincinnati Bengals 10-6 (Wild Card)
4. Cleveland Browns 4-12
Comments/Fantasy predictions: The Ravens enter with a questionable receiving group, relying on 36-year-old Steve Smith who faded badly down the stretch last season and a rookie who’s been sidelined with a sprained knee. Still, this is a team that had the sixth-best point differential in the NFL last year with a great coaching staff...Helped by new OC Marc Trestman, Justin Forsett catches 75 passes and is a top-10 fantasy back, finishing ahead of LeSean McCoy. Forsett led the NFL in carries that went for 20+ yards last season (17).
Ben Roethlisberger had an 11:0 TD:INT ratio when pressured last year (Blake Bortles had a 0:8 mark), as he completed a career-high 67.1 percent of his passes during a career-high amount of attempts (608). Roethlisberger’s 4,952 passing yards tied with Drew Brees for the most in the NFL, and he might be more unleashed in 2015 with the emergence of Martavis Bryant, although the loss of Maurkice Pouncey hurts...Only twice in NFL history has a player caught five passes and 50 yards in 16 games. Antonio Brown in 2013. And Antonio Brown in 2014 (h/t Chase Stuart). The 5-10 Brown led all receivers with 18 targets inside the 10 last season. Meanwhile, Julian Edelman had more than Brandon Marshall and Kelvin Benjamin, while James Jones and Hakeem Nicks saw more looks inside the 10 than Calvin Johnson.
Even in a down year, A.J. Green led the NFL with 2.96 yards per route run, although since 2011, Andy Dalton has 27 interceptions on passes intended to Green, the most by a QB to WR over that span. Of course, that doesn’t matter much to fantasy owners...Jeremy Hill finishes as a top-10 overall player so long as he doesn’t fumble the ball 10 times...Marvin Jones is one of my favorite late round fliers at WR...Cleveland provides by far the worst fantasy value among all NFL teams, headlined by their committee at running back. But if you’re into gambling the Browns under (6.5) is easily my favorite bet entering the 2015 season.
Police Blotter: Parrot Arrested For Swearing At 85-Year-Old Woman In India...Reward Offered For Stolen Corpse In Texas...Gainesville Man Defecates On Church...Horrified Woman Discovers Ex-boyfriend’s Secret Lair In Her Loft After Finding Mucky Fingerprints And Missing Food.
AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts 11-5
2. Houston Texans 7-9
3. Tennessee Titans 5-11
4. Jacksonville Jaguars 4-12
Comments/Fantasy predictions: Andrew Luck had an NFL-high 12 touchdowns on passes targeted at least 20 yards downfield last year. Not that I’m exactly going out on a limb, but he’s my pick to win MVP this season...Coby Fleener “led” all tight ends with a 10.53% drop rate last year, which isn’t ideal...Both T.Y. Hilton and Andre Johnson finish as top-15 fantasy wide receivers...I’m a Frank Gore fan, and he’s joining a nice situation compared to last year when he faced 8+ in the box more than any other back in the league by far, but his current ADP still seems high for an RB who’s 32 years old and close to 2,500 career carries. Dan Herron is my favorite under the radar “handcuff”...Thanks in part to an easy division and the player who would be taken first overall if a franchise draft were held today, the Colts are my AFC favorite to make the Super Bowl in 2015.
If you thought my Luck pick for MVP wasn’t a stretch, I’m going to make it up to you and go with a long shot and pick J.J. Watt as this year’s Defensive Player of the Year...Despite shaky QB play, DeAndre Hopkins is among the league-leaders in targets and finishes as a top-10 fantasy wide receiver, ahead of Mike Evans...David Cobb separates himself from Bishop Sankey and emerges as a viable RB2 down the stretch, thanks in part to Marcus Mariota’s threat to run...Allen Robinson becomes the first Jaguars receiver to record 1,000 yards since 2005, while T.J. Yeldon is a top-15 fantasy back.
Longread of the Week: How Former 49er Chris Borland Is The Most Dangerous Man In Football.
AFC West
1. Denver Broncos 11-5
2. San Diego Chargers 10-6
3. Kansas City Chiefs 9-7
4. Oakland Raiders 4-12
Comments/Fantasy predictions: The recent revelation Peyton Manning hasn’t been able to feel his fingertips since 2011 is pretty amazing, but he’s obviously been able to successfully play through it...I worry slightly about Demaryius Thomas’ fantasy value solely based on Manning’s health at age 39, but it’s also hard not to project the Broncos to win double-digits again, and I remain an advocate of drafting C.J. Anderson in the first round...The Broncos not only scored the second-most ppg (30.1) last year, they also yielded an NFL low 6.0 YPA (next best were the Seahawks at 6.3)...Philip Rivers’ net yards per pass attempt (7.04) ranks as the fifth-highest in NFL history, as he’s clearly one of the more underrated players in the game. But Keenan Allen, Stevie Johnson, Ladarius Green, Antonio Gates, Malcom Floyd and Danny Woodhead are all spread out when it comes to Rivers’ TD passes in 2015. I’m sure I’ll regret my prediction here when San Diego makes the postseason.
Travis Kelce finished second behind only Rob Gronkowski last season among tight ends with 2.26 yards per route run and well ahead of Jimmy Graham, who was seventh at 1.70. With Graham now moving to Seattle, Kelce should be drafted ahead of him in a vacuum, let alone given their current ADP prices...Jeremy Maclin made more downfield catches of 20 yards or more last season than the entire Chiefs' receiving corps combined (he also had the lowest drop rate among all WRs by a wide margin at 1.16). Maclin obviously isn’t going to be as good as he was last season, but he’s being underrated in drafts right now...Here are my thoughts on why Jamaal Charles should be the No. 1 pick, but ultimately, I would strongly prefer not to have the first pick in drafts this year.
Oakland breaks its same drought as Jacksonville when Amari Cooper becomes the first Raiders wide receiver since 2005 (Randy Moss) to reach 1,000 receiving yards, as the rookie is immediately among the league-leaders in targets. Oakland is a tough franchise to rely on (I do love Latavius Murray if he can somehow stay healthy), and Derek Carr is somehow getting talked up despite getting a paltry 5.5 YPA last season (on passes targeted at least 20 yards downfield he went 15-for-71, good for an NFL-worst 23.9% in which Pro Football Focus accounts for dropped passes. The next worst was Blake Bortles at 30.0%). That said, I still say don’t sleep on Cooper.
