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Closing Time: Can Joc Pederson offset his manager?

Arrow pointing upward (Harry How/Getty)
Arrow pointing upward (Harry How/Getty)

Although I was well aware of Joc Pederson’s prospect file before this season, I didn’t go after him with any gusto in March. I was worried about the pretzel logic of his manager, Don Mattingly. Maybe the skipper would jerk Pederson in and out of the lineup. Maybe the manager would keep Pederson buried in the order.

Now we’re at the end of April, and I have zero Pederson shares. And that’s no fun.

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Pederson was off to a snappy .296/.458/.556 start through his opening 20 games, though it all came at the bottom of the Los Angeles batting order. Peterson regularly slotted eighth for the Dodgers, and moved up to seventh on the days A.J. Ellis started. You know Mattingly and his veteran-loving ways.

But with Yasiel Puig and Carl Crawford on the disabled list, maybe Pederson is freed from lineup purgatory. The Dodgers let Pederson lead off Wednesday night against San Francisco, with smashing results: game-opening homer, another walk. Push the OPS up to 1.057, and push Pederson to the top of the NL Rookie of the Year list.

To be fair, Pederson’s sizzling OBP isn’t completely real – he’s drawn three intentional walks in front of the pitcher, and maybe a few other walks were stealth versions of the same thing. But this is also someone who drew 100 free passes in 121 Triple-A games last year, and a player who got on base 40 percent of the time through the minors. It’s an explosive breakout story ready to happen, if the club will step aside and let the kid come through.

The Dodgers might miss Crawford’s range on defense, but his bat wasn’t contributing much (.668 OPS). He’s been a mediocre player since leaving Tampa Bay after the 2010 season, posting a .276/.314/.417 slash. That’s an OPS-plus of 101, if you want another frame of reference. A number of 100 is league average.

Crawford’s oblique problem looks like an extensive injury, which probably means Pederson will bat no lower than sixth for a while. And while Puig (an OBP monster) rests his hamstring strain, Pederson will probably be at the top of a deep Los Angeles lineup. If I were shuffling outfielders right this moment, I’d push Pederson into the $16-18 range (comparable with guys like J.D. Martinez, Brett Gardner, Lorenzo Cain, Alex Gordon). He’s the real deal.

Stepping down a few levels, maybe Andre Ethier is worth a short-term Chavez Ravine pickup (nobody walks in L.A.). Ethier clocked one of the four Dodger home runs from Wednesday, and holds a .304/.400/.587 slash for the season. You can’t play him against lefties (and the Dodgers really shouldn’t), but when the platoon advantage is in his favor, step to the plate.

Ethier is available in 88 percent of Yahoo leagues, and his Fan Duel price is under $3000. Keep an open mind. The Dodgers aren't expected to face a left-handed starter until May 8 (and most of the righties are ordinary), so we might have some fun.

70s Wood (Topps)
70s Wood (Topps)

• We’ll start with the good news with Alex Wood: he doesn’t seem to be hurt. His velocity is stable from last year, checking out in the high 80s. But everything else is a mess right now.

Wood was kicked around by the resurgent Nats on Wednesday, pushing his ERA up to 4.03 and his WHIP to 1.48. It’s a good thing he’s keeping the ball in the park, it’s mitigated some of the damage. But it’s worrisome to see his strikeouts tumbling (down eight percent) and walks climbing (up about 40 percent).

Perhaps it’s all part of a repertoire adjustment, as Wood is throwing more sinkers this year (and getting more ground balls, which is always fine with us). But he’s been unable to locate his curve and change, and they’re not serving as put-away pitches. Wood’s career swinging strike rate is nine percent, but it’s tumbled to 4.2 percent this year. He's not generating those much-needed chase swings.

Unless you think Wood is injured, I suggest you stay the course with him. He’s still working in a cushy division. Andrelton Simmons will gobble up a lot of those grounders. Lefties never do much against Wood, and when the off-speed pitches come around, righties will go back to muttering to themselves. Wood draws Philadelphia next week, usually the antidote for whatever ails you.

• You know all about the young-pitcher caveats, but I’m looking forward to seeing Michael Foltynewicz get a shot with the Braves this weekend. He’s a former first-round pick (2010, Astros) and he’s been striking out a slew of guys in Triple-A this year (30 in 21.1 innings, along with a 2.08 ERA and 1.25 WHIP). He was a key part of the Evan Gattis trade, shipping east in January.

Control has always been the issue with Foltynewicz in the minors, and the jagged PCL experience last year might have scarred him a bit. But he’s regained his confidence in the International League this spring, and the Reds have some strikeout bats in their lineup. Give the 23-year-old some scouting time Friday night.