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    • Overshadowed by many, Fowler is off to a fast start. (USAT)

      Fantasy is a speculative game. Predict the future, and you look like a genius. Don't, and you're painfully human. Gazing into the crystal ball, here's our view on 10 intriguing over/unders.

      Dexter Fowler, out to a scorching start launching four homers in just under 40 at-bats, combined HRs/SBs on season 37.5

      Scott – I have a handful of Fowler shares this year, so my heart wants to push this number up. But UNDER is the logical call; I don't want to bet on the come when it's not warranted. Road games are generally an issue for the Rockies (the ball simply doesn't break as much in the mile-high air), and Fowler's never learned the craft of base stealing (a shame given his raw physical gifts).

      Andy – UNDER, but not by much. And I say this as a long-time Fowler fan, someone who owns him in multiple leagues. My projection for Dexter's power/speed contribution is something like 18/14, and that's assuming good health (which may not be a safe assumption with this player). For a fast dude,

      Read More »from Over/Under: Is this the year Fowler finally keeps pace?
    • New York groove (USAT)

      You probably know the Shuffle Up rules by now, but we'll go through a refresher course just in case.

      The prices below are my catcher rankings for the rest of the season. Don't obsess over the prices in a vacuum; what matters is how the players relate to one another. Commodities at the same dollar figure are considered even.

      Assumptions: 5x5 scoring, mixed-league format. Players who are currently disabled or in the minors are not eligible for ranks. The value on that type of player is largely context-driven, anyway; Yasmani Grandal could be a valuable stash in some pools and next-to-worthless in some other groups.

      I'll add comments as the day goes along and I reserve the right to tweak this list during the day. Your respectful disagreement is always welcome in this exercise; win the debate, win the rank. And be sure to remember the golden rule of Shuffle Up: a player doesn't gain 15-20 percent of bonus value simply because he's on your roster.

      To the ledger:

      Read More »from Shuffle Up: John Buck, flushing hero
    • Matt Carpenter, delivering one of his four hits (USAT Images)Matt Carpenter started at second base for the Cardinals on Wednesday afternoon, his second appearance at the position this season. With another three starts at second (coming soon), Carpenter will be eligible at every non-pitching roster spot except short and catcher in Yahoo! leagues.

      This fact, almost by itself, makes him an interesting name in fantasy circles, particularly if you’re involved in a league with limited bench spots.

      But when you toss in the fact that Carpenter is lining missiles all over the yard, game after game after game, then we clearly have an actionable fantasy story.

      Carpenter went 4-for-5 against the Reds on Wednesday with a homer, a double, two runs scored — his 10th and 11th this season — and two RBIs. He’s been a multi-hit machine in recent days (check the game log), raising his average to an even .400 and his OBP to .462.

      The guy is scorching hot at the moment, yet widely available in our game.

      Read More »from Closing Time: Matt Carpenter, still raking; Kelvin Herrera, still saving
    • Glorified G (USAT)

      With a 7-1 record and five straight wins, nothing seems to bother the Atlanta Braves right now. And they're off to this terrific start despite some notable injuries: Freddie Freeman, Brian McCann and Brandon Beachy are currently on the disabled list.

      Rookie catcher Evan Gattis can't do anything about the Beachy absence, but he's filling in nicely while Freeman and McCann heal up. It's time to pay attention in medium and deeper leagues.

      Gattis is getting regular run as Atlanta's cleanup hitter and starting catcher of late, spelling Freeman and McCann, respectively. He's off to a tidy 9-for-17 run at the plate, with a couple of homers. His latest round-tripper came in Tuesday's win at Miami (a nice job of hitting against a reasonable pitch), and he added a double later in the game. It's easy to see why the Braves like the rookie's bat.

      If you don't recognize Gattis from your prospect work, don't feel bad. Although he posted a solid .308/.374/.546 slash line through 222 games in the minors (along with 44 homers), only 182 of his at-bats came past Single-A. He wasn't featured on any of the hot future-star listings before the season. Gattis also turned 26 earlier this month, which tends to limit the rookie buzz. He was a 23rd-round pick in the 2010 draft after a bizarre amateur career, a late bloomer all the way. (The back story to Gattis's life – wandering, substance abuse, quitting and redemption – is going to make a dynamite movie someday. This is a very easy guy to root for.)

      Read More »from Closing Time: Evan Gattis reaches the seats; Greg Holland works out of trouble; ominous news for Jason Motte
    • Justin Upton looks ready to reach his potential (USAT)

      Justin Upton posted an .899 OPS as a 21-year-old, got away from a franchise that he clearly didn’t see eye-to-eye with, and there’s a real chance last year’s disappointing season was a direct result of a since healed thumb injury. On the other hand, Upton had actually disappointed two of the past three seasons, finishing as the 122nd ranked fantasy player in 2010 and 47th last year. Upton also left one of the best hitter’s parks for a generally neutral one that happens to depress power for right-handers (Turner Field’s HR Park Index for RHB is 88 over the past three years). Despite the latter, fantasy owners thought more highly of the former and drafted him aggressively, as he was likely gone within the first 15 picks. And as someone who ended up with Upton on zero of my fantasy teams, it’s been a rough first week to the season watching him go off, as he’s clubbed six homers over the first eight games. With a 1.192 slugging percentage entering Tuesday, fantasy owners have actually been unlucky to only get eight RBI from Upton so far, but it’s pretty hard to complain about his performance otherwise. It’s obviously just one week, and his K% is actually alarmingly high (37.9), but that doesn’t mean owners shouldn’t be excited that he very well may live up to all the previous hype and an MVP type season could be in store. Still just 25 years old, let’s hope Upton can stay healthy, as a monstrous campaign should follow.

      Read More »from Mostly MLB Notes: Examining hot starts by Justin Upton, Chris Davis and Jeff Samardzija
    • You're up, Benoit. We think. (USAT Images)

      When you check the box score from Detroit's 7-3 win over Toronto, you'll quickly notice two things about Joaquin Benoit's performance: 1) It wasn't particularly good, and 2) he pitched the ninth in a non-save situation.

      Those two facts, taken together, would probably discourage you from adding Benoit under normal circumstances.

      But it's worth noting that Benoit began warming when his team held a three-run lead in the bottom of the eighth, so he was in line for a save chance, until the Tigers plated a pair of insurance runs.

      Look, here's a screen grab of Joaquin in the 'pen, not long after his save opportunity went away...

      Read More »from Joaquin Benoit takes the ninth, imperfectly
    • Harvey Danger (USAT)

      There's a 12-year age difference between Matt Harvey and Roy Halladay. When it comes to 2013 fantasy value, the difference might as well be 12 miles. The kid is obviously going places, while the aging veteran might be out of bullets.

      The two trains continued to move in opposite directions when they met up Monday night in Philadelphia. Harvey was just about untouchable over seven brilliant innings (3 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 9 K), while Halladay's tour of hell continued (4 IP, 7 R, 3 BB, 3 K). It's hard to believe Halladay went 5-6 rounds earlier than Harvey in a lot of drafts last month.

      At what point does Halladay's poor start become a cliff season? He's coming off a messy 2012 campaign, he was hammered in most of his spring work, and he's dealing with lessened velocity as he closes in on his 36th birthday. Perhaps he needed shoulder surgery after last season, as opposed to rest and rehab. Can he reinvent himself at this juncture of his career? Is there a final act worth chasing? The next turn at Miami sounds good on paper, but the way Doc is scuffling right now, maybe that doesn't matter. Monday's New York lineup didn't look like a formidable challenge, either.

      I realize the Halladay name still commands a lot of respect in baseball and fantasy circles, but let's be careful with that. The circus leaves town for everyone eventually; gravity is the only winner in the end. Unless the acquisition price is a ridiculous giveaway (and thus, with no real risk), I don't see any reason to buy into Doc at this point. Let someone else put their ratios in jeopardy.

      Read More »from Closing Time: Matt Harvey and Roy Halladay, moving in different directions
    • McFadden could leave owners WAY in the black this year. (USAT)

      Owners who invested an exorbitant pick in china doll Darren McFadden last year are still sorely regretting it. Chucking hard inflatable balls at his dome, Mike Rice-style, would be an acceptable form of cathartic release.

      When not sidelined for the 10 millionth time with a lower body ailment (last year a high-ankle sprain), the disappointing rusher appeared overly timid, lacked explosiveness and was generally terrible, an ill-fit for Greg Knapp’s zone-blocking scheme. Shockingly 82 of his 216 rushing attempts (37.9 percent) went for one, zero or negative yards. His overall yards per carry average (3.3) was the lowest of his career, by a wide margin. According to Pro Football Focus‘ RB metrics, he was the worst back in the league registering a -19.2 rating, nearly ten ticks below next lowest Chris Johnson.

      Barf.

      Fantasy-wise McFadden was equally deplorable. His laughable 9.5 points per game average wasn’t even starter worthy in 12-team leagues (No. 29 among RBs). His 42 catches proved he was still effective in the pass game, but he likely burned millions for the final time. In the eyes of most, he will wear a scarlet letter this draft season. Run DM-flee.

      However, despite his sorrowful 2012 and oft-injured reputation, McFadden is a discounted RB worth exploring (29.5 ADP, RB18). No, this is not a belated April Fool’s joke. Here are three reasons why owners should strongly debate his services come August:

      Read More »from First Down: McFabulous days ahead for McFadden, sliding Gronk and football’s Neo Gio
    • Jered Weaver, eyes wide shut (USAT)

      Starting pitchers are the newborn babies of fantasy baseball. They're cookie cute in the nursery, but the moment we hear the slightest unusual noise, alarms go off. There are two types of pitchers, so the saying goes: those hurt now, and those soon to be hurt.

      Today's dark cloud of worry goes out to Jered Weaver. (Don't worry, weatherheads: it never rains in Southern California.) Time for a look around.

      Weaver's messy turn at Arlington on Sunday night (5 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 4 BB, 2 K) didn't qualify as headline news. We saw a bunch of top-flight pitchers get hit over a 24-hour period, and Weaver has a terrible history in Arlington to begin with. A couple of well-struck but wind-aided homers certainly didn't help the cause.

      But how confident can we feel about Weaver going forward? That's where the story gets a little dicey.

      Read More »from Nowhere Fast: Now we worry about Jered Weaver
    • Nolan Arenado, making noise at Colorado Springs (Getty Images)

      Rockies third base prospect Nolan Arenado had an impressive spring, as most of you know, going 15-for-54 with four doubles, four homers and 12 RBIs. The soon-to-be 22-year-old challenged for a spot in Colorado's opening day lineup, but the organization ultimately chose to ship him temporarily to Triple-A.

      The move makes some sense, for all the usual financial/developmental reasons. (Realistically, the difference between Chris Nelson's production and Arenado's, this year, is probably not enough to justify starting the kid's service-time clock.) But fantasy owners need to keep a close eye on Arenado's minor league box scores; he's a potential high-impact add who, when promoted, will do his hitting in a friendly park.

      Arenado opened his season with a strong series against Reno, homering in his first two games, reaching base safely in eight of his 14 plate appearances. Over three games thus far, he's scored four runs and driven in four more.

      On Friday, he hit a bomb of notable distance. This via the Colorado Springs Gazette:

      Read More »from Farm Report: Nolan Arenado hasn’t stopped hitting (scoreboards)

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