Canada survives immortal goaltending performance verus Latvia, advance to men’s hockey semifinal

Any time the play must be halted because the opposing goaltender has collapsed to exhaustion on the ice, you know that your forwards are playing a very strong game. The CBC commentators for the men's Olympic hockey quarterfinal game between Canada and Latvia frequently made reference to the fact that any statistic would show the dominance of Canada during that game, but Canada ran into a very unlikely adversary.

Goaltender Kristers Gudlevskis was selected by the Tampa Bay Lightning in June after an impressive .925 save percentage for Team Latvia at the world championships last spring, and has begun his North American pro career bouncing between Lightning minor league affiliates, posting a .900 save percentage in the American League with the Syracuse Crunch and a .925 save percentage in the East Coast League with the Florida Everblades.

If he was originally a name known by Lightning prospophiles, he's now a household name in Canada after nearly singlehandedly beating a Team Canada lineup loaded with National Hockey League star players. Gudlevskis stopped 55 of 57 shots, and 20 of 21 shots considered scoring chances, and just about sent the Canadians home with an early exit, had the Latvians been able to mount anything offensively throughout the game. A goal midway through the third period broke a nailbiting tie and Canada wound up pulling out a 2-1 victory.

With a 57-16 advantage in shots on goal and a 27-10 advantage in scoring chances, it's tough to find much fault with the way Mike Bacbock's Canadian squad played, but the forwards ran into the same problems they've faced so far this tournament: they're having trouble converting. It began early on with Chris Kunitz ringing a shot off the crossbar, continuing all the way to Gudlevskis stretching across his net to stop Drew Doughty on the powerplay, moments before play was halted so the goaltender could collect a drink of water, and moments before the ensuing sequence, when Shea Weber blasted his signature slap shot through two hostile screens for Canada's 2-1 goal, and they held on without conceding a Latvian scoring chance in the final minutes of play.

A scoring chance, for those of you not following along with these posts on Eh Game for the last week, is defined by a statistical-pioneering Edmonton Oilers blog Copper and Blue as "a clear play directed toward the opposing net from a dangerous scoring area—loosely defined as the top of the circle and inside the faceoff dots (nicknamed the Home Plate), though sometimes slightly more generous than that depending on the amount of immediately-preceding puck movement or screens. Blocked shots are generally not included but missed shots are."

Surprisingly, the first period ended in a 1-1 tie, with Latvia controlling the bulk of the dangerous chances:

(LEGEND: CAN: Canada, LAT: Latvia, EV: Even strength scoring chances, PP: Powerplay scoring chances, SH: Shorthanded scoring chances, Tot.: Total scoring chances)

Shots were 16-6 Canada in the first, with a lot of bounces near the Latvian net but the wrong sticks were reaching them. A momentary lapse from defenceman Jay Bouwmeester allowed forward Lauris Darzins behind the Canadian players on the ice for Darzins to score his fourth of the tournament and tie the game, but other than that, Canada played about as perfect as you could without winning by a clearer margin.

I hate to think of how this narrow margin will play out on social media websites and talk radio, but I would recommend avoiding such bastions of intellectual discussion for now. The important takeaway is that finishing 'ability' is influenced more by luck than by skill in a small sample of games. Canada shouldn't expect to score on just 3.5% of their shots against the United States, and shouldn't expect to score on just 4.8% of their overall scoring chances put on net.

What is concerning for Canada is the defensive ability of the top line. Canada again flipped around its top unit, looking to jump start Sidney Crosby in any way, this time pairing him with defensive stalwart Patrice Bergeron and Pittsburgh Penguins linemate Chris Kunitz.

You can check the individual on-ice scoring chance differentials to draw your own conclusions about who is the weak link on that line:

Only two Canadians: Crosby and Kunitz, were on the ice for more Latvian scoring chances against than Canadian scoring chances for during the game. The Jonathan Toews line was again fantastic, as was Ryan Getzlaf's unit, with both units probably deserving each of a couple of goals on their own.

The other concern is John Tavares' injury, as Canada heads to the medal round already without Steven Stamkos, Tavares will also presumably be on the shelf for a while:

The good news is that the Canadians still have a lot of firepower and Tavares hadn't been producing (though he had been performing very well) at the time of his injury. The bad news is that down to 13 healthy forwards, Mike Babcock will be less tempted to sit Chris Kunitz, who has easily been Canada's weakest player through four games so far.

Now, while Canada scored twice, the score could have been a little further open had Latvia been called on two occasions where a puck was handled by a glove in the crease, which should lead to a penalty shot. The most egregious infraction was Kristaps Sotnieks, who quite clearly prevented a potential goal from Jonathan Toews in the third period:

But, as they say, no harm, no foul. It hardly matters for the next game whether you win 2-1 or 7-1, and Canada is now past the point where they can be upset by a clearly inferior opponent.

One final point to make: while Carey Price won't get too much credit for his game against the Latvians, seeing as it was the other goalie who was facing a barrage of shots, he was one of Canada's best players. All of Latvia's 10 scoring chances were shots on goal, and Price turned away all of them except for the breakaway and stopped 15-of-16 total shots. There's some evidence that goaltenders get higher save percentages when they're under furious assault from the opposition and it's easy to see how a goalie that will go minutes without seeing a shot can lose focus and rhythm. Price was locked in and had very good rebound control in the dangerous waning minutes as the Latvians tried to create danger in front of the Canadian net.

Canada play the United States Friday at 12:00 p.m. Eastern.