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Ohio State 24, Penn State 7. We don't know exactly how the season is going to play out -- it could very well be, for example, that Penn State just isn't very good. We didn't know much about the Lions coming in, but their offensive malaise and the quiet, steady effectiveness of the Buckeye running game followed exactly the script of Penn State's only other loss this season, in its only other game against another team at the top of the conference. With their lame nonconference schedule and losses to the only teams on the Big Ten slate that might currently fit anyone's definition of "good," there's no evidence at all that the Lions stack up to the top-15 ranking they've carried all season.

But there's not much question on my end that this is Ohio State's best win since the 2006 team finished its perfect regular season against No.2 Michigan, just before launching the "big game" curse against Florida in the subsequent BCS title game that's followed the Buckeyes ever since. OSU finally played exactly the way it wanted to play against one of the best teams on the schedule -- running for 200-plus yards, getting two touchdown passes with no turnovers from Terrelle Pryor, taking advantage of good field position and forcing seven three-and-outs from the Nittany Lion offense -- and did it on the road. It's not the national championship, but it is the first time Pryor or the vast majority of teammates can come out of a verifiably big game with their heads held high.

With Iowa's loss to Northwestern, it also sets up the Buckeyes on the track to their first Rose Bowl appearance in more than a decade: They'll be favored to beat the Hawkeyes next week in Columbus, which will put OSU in sole possession of first place in the conference with only badly reeling Michigan standing between it and Pasadena. If they manage to take two must-win conference games in a row and dispatch their hated rival for the sixth consecutive year after nearly losing control of the season in an ugly loss at Purdue, of all places, the Bucks will deserve the trip, and deserve to enjoy it no matter what other big-game demons are sure to await them when they get there.

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Navy 23, Notre Dame 21. Watching a game like this unfold is almost a surreal experience when you stop to size up the absurd physical differences between these two teams, especially between Notre Dame's offense and Navy's defense. It's one thing to think about how difficult it must be for the Midshipmen's secondary to match up with Notre Dame's 6-foot-6 god of a receiver, Michael Floyd, and another altogether to actually observe the physical impossibility of it with your own eyes, even on television.

And it's not like Navy really stopped Notre Dame's high-flying offense, either, despite the final score: Floyd and receiving mate Golden Tate hauled in 19 passes between them for 275 yards, more than half of the Irish's 513-yard total, and ND didn't punt once.

But Navy was able to mitigate the damage by limiting big plays -- before Tate's 31-yard catch-and-run for Notre Dame's last (and ultimately meaningless) touchdown in the final minute, the Midshipmen hadn't allowed a play longer than 30 yards, forcing the Irish to string together long drives that more often than not ended in the Middies' favor; five ND drives of seven plays or longer ended deep in Navy territory with the Irish failing to put points on the board. More importantly, the Midshipmen forced turnovers, three of them, including a Jimmy Clausen fumble at the Navy goal line and then a pick off Clausen inside the Navy five in the fourth quarter. Most of the Irish's obscene output was sound and fury in the service, ultimately, of nothing.

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Purdue 38, Michigan 36. Mathematically, Michigan is still alive for a bowl game, but at this point, that's like saying "Chrysler is still solvent" or "People are still watching the new Jay Leno show." Technically, yes: At 5-5, if the Wolverines upset Wisconsin on the road or end their five-year losing streak against Ohio State, a bid to the Little Caesar's Bowl may be waiting for them.

Let's rephrase that with a few more pieces of key information: If the Wolverines snap out of a five-game conference losing streak in which they've now allowed 500 yards and 38 points apiece to Illinois and Purdue in back-to-back weeks to knock off one of the top teams in the conference, they can eke out a bid to the least prestigious postseason date in school history. That's the best-case scenario.

Today, at home against another struggling outfit struggling just to stay out of the conference cellar (Purdue was routed last week 37-0 by Wisconsin), was the chance for Michigan to end that malaise and salvage whatever goodwill remained from the 4-0 start in September. Instead, the beleaguered secondary gave up four completions of at least 30 yards in the worst aerial assault against Wolverine D (367 yards) since USC in the 2006/07 Rose Bowl. Aside from defensive end Brandon Graham, this rock-bottom defense is like last year's rock-bottom offense: Outmanned, condemned from the outset by a shockingly bare cupboard at key positions and careening quickly toward historic depths every time the ball goes in the air.

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Northwestern 17, Iowa 10. Anytime a nondescript, 16.5-point underdog rebounds from a quick 10-point hole to upend a 9-0 national-title contender on the road, that is a "shocking" result. There was no reason to think Iowa might lose to a team with a gimpy starting quarterback and whose marquee wins to date included unlikely, skin-of-the-teeth comebacks against Purdue and Indiana. The Hawkeyes' miracle season obviously was not supposed to end here -- next week at Ohio State, maybe, but not at home, to Northwestern.

I find it hard to believe, though, that anyone who pays greater heed to probability than to miracles is actually experiencing anything like actual shock, especially after quarterback Ricky Stanzi's ignominious exit with an ankle injury on the end zone fumble turned Northwestern touchdown that turned the game in the second quarter and collapsed the Hawkeyes' Jenga tower of a season in a matter of seconds. At some point, it had to happen: Iowa had already survived the loss of its top three running backs and a starting offensive lineman for the season, as well as its best offensive player for a crucial three-game stretch earlier in the season, and emerged unscathed after fourth-quarter comebacks against Northern Iowa, Penn State, Michigan State and Indiana. When you're saddled with one of the worst offenses in the conference, there are only so many miracles at your disposal.

As much heat as he's taken for his perfectly mediocre performance through the first two months (and his five-interception schizo act against Indiana, in particular), Stanzi's injury was the obvious breaking point. At least the resourceful junior gave the Hawkeyes a chance to move the ball: Their first three drives covered 159 yards and put 10 points on the board off a 74-yard touchdown pass from Stanzi to Marvin McNutt and a 30-yard strike to Trey Stross that set up the field goal. The final eight drives, all led by redshirt freshman James Vandenberg, covered 131 yards, entered Northwestern territory only once and produced zero points. Vandernberg's first pass was a laser directly into the chest of a linebacker that set up the Wildcats' go-ahead touchdown, and his longest completion was just 16 yards. He repeatedly missed open receivers Stanzi may have hit. The high wire snapped when No. 12 went down.

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